Sealion in three turns, Major flaw with Alpha 2

@Commando:

I agree JimmyHat. And I’d like to add, if the US is played right and Germany does a successful SeaLion. The US can take the UK back on Turn 4 in almost all cases, unless the German players put ALL it’s efforts into defending the UK, in which case Russia steam rolls Germany.

With a good German player expecting to to take London I see it very difficult for the US to take back London on turn 4.  At least that has been the case in all my games.

If you can get USA to go all Atlantic, it sure gives Japan room to breath.  We just finished the 3rd round of a game where USA decided early to go almost 100% Atlantic.  Sent all the Pacific fleet over and is just using a couple of transports to shuck men to Alaska and Hawaii.  Since Germany took London round 3, USA declared war and has a large fleet in SZ 91 plus 4 transports of men and equipment on Gibraltar.  I think they were planning to take Rome next turn, but Italy put a blocker in SZ 92 so I think they will try to re-take London.  That is, unless the German navy and air force have something to say about it.  Germany has a fairly large fleet too:  1 CV + 2 tacs, 1 BB, 1 CA, 1 DD, 3 SS.  Also, they have some fighters and a bomber on Normandy.
Anyway, since there is NOTHING threatening Japan, the Japanese fleet is near the DEI and have trashed the small UK fleet there.  ANZAC is still trying to build a fleet and decide what to do with it.  The Japs have Malaya, Hong Kong and most of China.  Calcutta is under intense pressure.  Japan is having a rather good time.  If the US doesn’t make something happen soon in Europe, the Allies may be doomed on both sides.

@The_nightlord:

A lengthy explanation.

Dear sir,

If you use the following tool: http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html , which is an AA odds calculator, you will find that the battle, in the configuration you have given, gives about 60% chance of victory to the UK.

Good day.

YAaaaaaaaaaar!!!

:roll:

Nightlord,

Have you actually played with the Alpha +2 rules?

I think you are sorely mistaken on a few points…

2 subs take out trans and destroyer off england  What about the three planes that can scramble?  unless you get a hit the the first round - the subs die for nothing….

1 sub , heavy bomber, tact bomber and figher take out battle ship and destroyer north of england  What about the plane that can scramble here?  Thats 1@2 + 1@3 + 2@4 over 5 hits against 1@2 2@4 over 4 hits - Your both likely to get close to 2 hits, the problem becomes that the British Battleship gets a tip.  Call it 2 for 2,  You are left with 1@3 1@4, vs 2@4, Trading your Desperatley needed planes for sealion - for British Ships.

And what about the counter?  You are building a cruiser,

So…. 2x Cruiser 1 bat,  assuming they don’t get hit whilst wasting the fleet off of west germany (Which you are PAR to take a hit for.)  that gives you 3 fighters at best to scramble…

British… 2x Cru 1 bat, 3 to 4 planes depending on whether Sz111 scrambled or, if the British built an aircraft carrier opening Sz110 as a landing strip.

Say I see your build and attacks and choose NOT to scramble Sz111, and you take the typical single hit off of west germany.

That gives the UK 6@3 + 1@4 over 8 hits for the british.  Vs your 2@3 4@4 over 6 hits. Damn Close.  And GAME OVER if you fail to kill the destroyer off englands west coast, or fail to take out the normandy plane.  They don’t have to win, they just have to sink your fleet.  More planes are on the way from the Med.

I’m seeing alot of risks here along the way…  Even if they just plainly build infantry - it’s SO close.

And what if the UK builds something into their navy? How do you intend to sink it?  with your subs off of Canada? Because you wont have any near England.  A single aircraft carrier would give the british 5 defending planes, a battleship and 2x cruisers to match your own.  And they can still spend another 12…  If he add’s 2x subs to the mix, or a destroyer, it’s just more fodder to trade against your planes…  and as soon as your navy leaves the harbour…

Sea-Lion is NEVER a “for sure” thing. Ever. Unless your opponent doesnt see the option.

@The_nightlord:

You cant argue with math.

Good day to you. Hook :mrgreen:

I do agree with that statement. And will correct my mistake, the UK will build 9 infantries in the first turn, and 10 infantries in the second, as they carried over 2 IPC, in most cases they will still have their original territories at the end of their first turn and will therefore make enough to actually buy 9 infantries and 1 tank, seeing the germans barges.

that gives, using your methodology, and rounding up, if p>= 0.5 and down if p<0.5 and using 4 decimals in the approximations of fractions.

Round 0 -> AA gun fires.

german 1 bomber, 5 tacs, 4 fighters = 10 planes. He ought to loose 1.667 planes. Say 1 tac and 1 fighter, although there is a slightly higher chance that more high value planes are lost.

Round 1

Germany           
1 bomber + 4tac: 3.3333 hits               
3 fighters+7 tanks: 5 hits
7infantries: 1.1667 hits
total: 9.5 hits -> 10 hits

UK
4 fighters -> 2.6667
23 infantry -> 7.6667
total: 10.3333 -> 10 hits

Round 2

Germany
1bomber + 4 tac: 3.3333 hits
3 fighters + 4 tanks: 3.5 hits
total: 6.8333 hits -> 7 hits

UK
4 fighters -> 2.6667 hits
13 infantry -> 4.3333
total: 7 hits

round 3

Germany
1bomber+3 tacs: 2.6667 hits
1 tank: 0.5 hits
total: 3.1667 hits -> 3 hits

UK
4 fighters: 2.6667 hits
6 infantry: 2 hits
total 4.6667 hits -> 5 hits

UK wins.

I think that one of us is making a mistake. And I sincerely doubt that it is me, good sir.

@special:

@Commando:

I agree JimmyHat. And I’d like to add, if the US is played right and Germany does a successful SeaLion. The US can take the UK back on Turn 4 in almost all cases, unless the German players put ALL it’s efforts into defending the UK, in which case Russia steam rolls Germany.

Wasn’t the USA mostly going 100% Pacific these days?  :-D

Not so sure about USA taking it back in turn 4 though, since Germany still has a load of transports (unless those had been taken care of), so after USA liberates UK, Germany can (in theory) just take it again.

If Germany takes London on Turn 3. And if you position all your forces in SZ64 w/the US and put a NB in Smx. You can reach Gib Turn 3. London Turn 4 and take London back. If you marshall your forces correctly w/the US you can have a HUGE flotilla and take the UK back. Also from SZ64 you can reach Haw in one turn and go Pacific if you want. I’ll post my games w/my opening moves/builds so everyone can see. I think it’s a mistake to go 100% Pacific, until you see what the Axis are doing. In fact, I like the KGF strategy. I’ve won everytime w/the Allies using this strategy.

@majikforce:

@Commando:

I agree JimmyHat. And I’d like to add, if the US is played right and Germany does a successful SeaLion. The US can take the UK back on Turn 4 in almost all cases, unless the German players put ALL it’s efforts into defending the UK, in which case Russia steam rolls Germany.

With a good German player expecting to to take London I see it very difficult for the US to take back London on turn 4.  At least that has been the case in all my games.

If Germany takes London on Turn 3. And if you position all your forces in SZ64 w/the US and put a NB in Smx. You can reach Gib Turn 3. London Turn 4 and take London back. If you marshall your forces correctly w/the US you can have a HUGE flotilla and take the UK back. Also from SZ64 you can reach Haw in one turn and go Pacific if you want. I’ll post my games w/my opening moves/builds so everyone can see. I think it’s a mistake to go 100% Pacific, until you see what the Axis are doing. In fact, I like the KGF strategy. I’ve won everytime w/the Allies using this strategy.

USA Turn 1

Builds:

1 Naval Base, 3 Transports, 2 Inf, 1 DD, Save 2 IPC’s

Non Coms:

1 DD, 1 SS from SZ35 to SZ54
1 FTR from Phi to Gua
1BB, 1AC, 1CC, 1DD, 1 FTR from SZ10 to SZ64
1CC, 1DD, 1 SS, 1 Trans from SZ26 to SZ64
1 FTR from Haw to SZ64, lands on AC
1 Inf, 1 AA from Wus to Trans in SZ10 moves to SZ26, lands in Haw
1 Tac from SZ10 to Eus
1 Inf from Cus, 1 Inf from Eus to Trans in SZ101, moves with CC to SZ64, lands in Smx
1 Art, 1 AA from Eus to Cus
1 Mech, 1 Arm from Cus to Smx
1 SBR, 1 Mech from Cus to Wus
1 FTR from Wus to Eus
1 Inf, 1 Art from Wus to Cus

Builds:

1 Naval Base in Smx
3 Trans, 1 DD in SZ101
2 Inf in Cus

Collect 54 IPC’s

@The_nightlord:

But as you can clearly see from what I posted its all based on simple straight up percentage of the 6 sided dice. Basic math man. Basic math. You cant argue with math. Only thing against me is a bad dice roll.

Nightlord please read around just a wee bit more; trust me, this topic has been discussed quite a bit.  If you do what you’ve suggested, Germany will lose quite badly.  Your “basic math” is faulty.

Dear The_nightlord: You took out Sea zones 106,109,111, and 112, but you left UK with a cruiser and BB in SZ110 plus CA in SZ91? Why would you leave the Brit Navy that powerful to counter attack your navy on turn 1. That is, 2CA,1BB and 2-4 planes (assumes loss of plane in Scotland). You will lose the Germany Navy in Turn 1. Bad move.
Sargon the Assyrian Warrior

@sargon:

Dear The_nightlord: You took out Sea zones 106,109,111, and 112, but you left UK with a cruiser and BB in SZ110 plus CA in SZ91? Why would you leave the Brit Navy that powerful to counter attack your navy on turn 1. That is, 2CA,1BB and 2-4 planes (assumes loss of plane in Scotland). You will lose the Germany Navy in Turn 1. Bad move.
Sargon the Assyrian Warrior

Ugh, UK has horrible odds on that battle, even bringing in 4 aircraft.

Remember Germ better have 3 aircraft to scamble with the 2 on the carrier.

Has anyone pointed out that the fighters on England can scramble to sink the submarines in SZ 109 that he is declaring to go?

The_nightlord,

Perhaps you should look into the following attacks:

• W. France
• France
• SZ 110
• SZ 111
• SZ 106
• SZ 112
• Yugoslavia
• Finland
• Bulgaria

You can do each of these with greater than 80% effectiveness.

If you turn your round 1 purchases into an aircraft carrier and 2 transports you will have an easier time with Sea Lion.  If you follow that up with more transports and make a landing in Scotland, England should crumple like a house of cards costing you almost no aircraft at all. (Losses due to AA Gun).

G’luck!

@JimmyHat:

@sargon:

Dear The_nightlord: You took out Sea zones 106,109,111, and 112, but you left UK with a cruiser and BB in SZ110 plus CA in SZ91? Why would you leave the Brit Navy that powerful to counter attack your navy on turn 1. That is, 2CA,1BB and 2-4 planes (assumes loss of plane in Scotland). You will lose the Germany Navy in Turn 1. Bad move.
Sargon the Assyrian Warrior

Ugh, UK has horrible odds on that battle, even bringing in 4 aircraft.

Remember Germ better have 3 aircraft to scamble with the 2 on the carrier.

CA /= carrier.  CA = cruiser.  CV = carrier.  And this “build” buys a cruiser, not a carrier.  So no, only 3 planes.  and the two hit BB probably took one hit, so no other soakers.  It’s maybe not overwhelming odds for the UK, but not as dire as you predict.

?  Im sorry, I don’t understand your post kcdzim.  What units do you have in the battle?  It should be 2 CA 1 bb 4 ftr vs 1 bb 1 CA 1 CV 4 ftr 1 Tac.

Might be able to bring a TAC in for attacker off the UK carrier off Gibraltar…not really sure if there’s anyway to increase UK odds.

The OP does not purchase a CV.  There is no german carrier.  Sargons point is valid, and it is a VERY vulnerable german navy.  At most Germany can field 3 fighters.  That makes it 2 ca, 1 bb, 4 fighters against 1 bb (already hit) 2 ca, and 3 fighters.

England would lose most of her navy, but germany would lost all of her navy.  The OP’s strategy is, well, not good.

The funny thing is, the OP doesn’t even describe the optimal way to go about a G3 Sealion.

Instead of building tanks and a cruiser (?) G1, build two heavy bombers and send three bombers with x number of tacs and y number of fighters to strat. bomb London on G2. You either get through clean, or given the numerical superiority of the luftwaffe here, you probably can manage 1-1 Spitfire/Stuka exchanges.

@Jercules:

The funny thing is, the OP doesn’t even describe the optimal way to go about a G3 Sealion.

Instead of building tanks and a cruiser (?) G1, build two heavy bombers and send three bombers with x number of tacs and y number of fighters to strat. bomb London on G2. You either get through clean, or given the numerical superiority of the luftwaffe here, you probably can manage 1-1 Spitfire/Stuka exchanges.

What exactly are your Tacs bombing?  the airfield?  To what end?

Tacs can’t bomb factories.

i see that no one is actually doing anything about the situation so ill step up and do it. ill challenge nightlord to a game, but i will only play the first 3 rounds, to show him that you can stop a sealion. ok? if you dont accept this challenge nightlord, that means you dont think it will work anyways