Best way to sneak up on UK

[Guest]

Hey Switch.

Can we hold off on option 3 (Z06 block) for a few more posts?  I think we’re close to wrapping up option 2 - the counterattack against the unified fleet.

1. As other posters have pointed out, it looks like we have the two best UK attack purchases: 3ftr for raw hitting power or 1sub 1des 1ftr for defensive holding power.  2bmr/3sub are not viable options.

2. I asked about the rotating attack option where you start with the UK but finish with the US.  Let’s walk through what it looks like.  If you plan on hitting Z07 with the UK, you can pull back before you clear the zone.  That would enable you to retreat to Z08, which in turn enables you to unite with US boats built R1.  That means UK can build 3tra R2, preserve their battleship, and rely on the US to supply another capital ship for defense against the German planes.

The US, then, would want to look for a first round kill against whatever grey boats remain.  You could have a max US force of 2tra 2des 3ftr 1bmr + purchase.  And actually, for true max value the Pearl Harbor ftr might live.  Let’s assume it dies ;-)

You don’t want to have boats left in Z07, so the way you would do it is to send in just enough fodder (tra + des) to absorb hits but still kill all the boats.  The UK can’t get enough hits in one round to justify the strafe (too much left for the US), so you’re going to need to go two rounds.  That means you need to buy 1sub 1des 1ftr with the UK or the battleship is very likely to get hit by a sub R2.

So you would have this:
UK: 2tra 1sub 1des 1btl 3ftr 1bmr : oPunch = 22 : oHits = 4
Ger: 5tra 3sub 1des 1btl : dPunch = 18 : dHits = 3

After one round:
UK: 1sub 1des 1btl 3ftr 1bmr : oPunch = 22 : oHits = 4
Ger: 2tra 3sub 1des 1btl : dPunch = 15 : dHits = 3

After two rounds, the most common outcome is:
UK: 1btl 2ftr 1bmr (if you’re retreating to Z08, you probably don’t need the destroyer, but you could lose another ftr instead)
Ger: 1sub 1des 1btl : dPunch = 9 : dHits = 2 : dCount = 4

So with the US you want to put 4 hits on the Germans while only exposing 2 cheap casualties.

We have: 2tra 2des 3ftr 1bmr + purchase.  We don’t want to send in more than 2tra because whatever lives in Z07 will be Planed down by Germany.Â

US: 2tra 3ftr 1bmr: oPunch = 13 : oHits = 2

We need more juice.  We can either send in a destroyer or two, or buy planes R1 to hit Z07.  We can buy ftrs to do that if we also buy a carrier for them to start on.  We need 12 punch more for FRK (first round kill).  That would mean sending in both des and buying 1car 2ftr.  Hmph.Â

Or we could skip FRK and just go for the win using all 4 green boats.  Wasteful.  Hmph.

Ok, that walkthrough makes me not a fan of a rotating attack.  The benefit of the rotation was supposed to be to try and preserve Allied boats, but because you risk getting stuck in Z07 with either fleet, the rotation is not very economical.

You can’t count on a third UK strafing round because you could take out the German boats and then the UK would have moved up beyond the protection of the US R1 build.  If the UK built transports, you’re in trouble.

I think if you’re going for the option of killing the United Fleet, you just need to go all the way with the UK.

I think the earlier summary stands with a couple modifications:

Pro Z07 attack w/ 3ftr purchase: German navy dies 67% of the time from the UK; US can finish off remainder.
Con Z07 attack w/ 3ftr purchase: Starting UK navy dies R2.  R1 purchase dies R2.  Fleet unprotected.  Significant chance of a bad outcome in Z07 attack.  No troops in Africa for UK earlier than R3.
Misc: Buying 1sub 1des 1ftr allows you to defend Z07 in conjunction with a UK naval build R2; a rotating attack from UK/US is not as good as you might think so you’re probably better off with planning on the UK as the primary attack and US only on cleanup from bad dice.

That summary says you can take out the unified fleet, but it’s not pretty.  I’m still happy as the Germans.

Anyone see anything major missed in that?

[cyan]

UK1: buys 1bb (sounds crazy but wait)
US1: buys 3 bmb move figs t e. canada and the uk.
UK2: attacks for 1 round. takes out on averge 2 trns(while they lose 1)
US2: atacks with2 Fig, 4 Bom, 2 Tra, 1 Des. v. Defender: 3 Tra, 3 Sub, 1 Des, 1 Bat
theres a 1/5 cance of keeping all bombers)(whcih is the median) the a 96% the defender will die there a 20% chance of geting 3 bombers and 10% of getting 2 bombers alive.

[cyan]

i assumed that the trns would die first this is actually worse for germany. now that i let the trns die after the subs theres a 90% chance of  the US succeding(worse than 95%) now its:
19.13% 4 Bom.  - 14.89% 3 Bom.      - 10.3% 2 Bom.          - 5.52% 1 Bom.

if germany wants to perserve its subs it will have to take tehm as a last cassualty and still therees only a 49% chance of sruvival.
Sub 3 20.91% Sub 2: 13.31% Sub 1: 14.13%
the US will have all 4 bombers and maybe a fig.  germany gives up 1 extra hit on the us(10 ipcs) in exchange to flip a coin and see if at least 1 sub lives. so depeding on how well the us did 1st round it may be worth it to save teh subs.(even though will be worthless unless you plan on rebuilding)

[nooob]

US1 has only 42ipc’s to spend…3 bom=45ipcs…

also to backtrack a little… if both uk and us lose their trn on rd2 than with africa, germany is offsetting the delay of not purchasing(as many) ground units on g1.
in this case blocking in SZ12 and taking algeria might not be the best option

on a side note i dont see the point in 2trns i think you gotta go for three.(or a carrier)

[cyan]

talk about a stupid mistake. i’'ll go see if it will work with 2 bombers.

[nooob]

i mean algeria MIGHT BE the best option.  sorry grammar error

[cyan]

now i ran it with 23 bmbs instead of 4 and got a 70% success rate. if germany saves the subs to subemge then it is a 85% that a germany unit will live(3 subs being the most likely at 42%) the median result for the us is 2 bmbs survive(15 % ) if germany decides to use it’s subs. if it decides to save them(killing the bb if necessary) it has a 25% chance of 3 bmb living. the good thing about this option is  that the UK can still attack noraway (if left emptied) and the US will be able to build a trn and inf or artillery. even though this allows more flexible there a good chance if germany rebuilds there going to be another naval battle(UK/US 3 or 4). the only thing this guarantees is that germany won’t be able to attack the UK on GER 3. Ger will loss 76 ipcs(16 on UK turn and 60 on the us turn) while there will be a loss of 8(UK) + 48(us)= 56 ipcs. the allies keep the UK navy and deal 20 ipcs of damage to Germany with the option of taking Norway or Algeria on R2.  also the us may be able to sbr germany latter. Germany meanwhile gains delaying the Atlantic threat and optimizes its navy. germany may even be able to start a new navy with the 3 subs present.

[Guest]

Well, at this point we have identified several varaitions of attacking the United Fleet in Z07.  Not all of them work against both a German transport build and a carrier build, but you CAN sink that fleet.

The problem with all the solutions is the same: Germany spends 24 IPCs (or 16 for the carrier) to trigger major offensive spending by the UK, and the Allies are significantly slowed down.

As a German player, I’m still uniting that fleet.  It’s money and pieces well spent.

Let’s go back to Switch’s post for option 3:

UK buys 1des 1car.  Everything moves to Z06 for the block.

So we get this:
Ger: 4tra 2sub 1des 5ftr 1bmr (assume the 6th ftr is in LIB)
UK: 1tra 1sub 1des 1car 1btl 2ftr

The calculated outcome on that is:
Ger: 1sub 1des 5ftr 1bmr

Germany loses 40 IPCs of gear; Allies lose 88 IPCs of gear.  The Luftwaffe is alive to threaten planes, so the Allies are still going to need to build capital ships in the water.  The remaining German boats are likely killed by US air power, but they may take out a plane or a boat so it is hard to quantify that exaclty.  In the ensuing counterattack to Z06, the Axis lose another 20 IPCs and the Allies lose 8-12 depending on what they send in.

Look about right?

If those are the numbers, then I think we’ve run through the major variants to countering the United Fleet, and every one of them is not bad for the Germans.  The IPC trade is favorable in each case.

Which leads to looking at the alternative: if you DON’T set up to unite the fleets, UK is building tra R1 and landing R2.

Two parts are necessary for a successful German naval gambit:

1. The Baltic fleet must be pumped up R1.
2. The Med fleet must take Gibraltar R1.

If you don’t build Baltic boats, they die to the UK air force.  If you build Baltic navy but you don’t take Gibraltar to set up the unification, now the Allies can land safely in Algeria or attack the Baltic fleet in Z07.

There is no cheap, easy way to stop the unification.  The unification can be done, but only by making the Allies pay a heavy price.

Thoughts?

[cyan]

it gives a huge advantage to germany if it unites its fleet. however it is conterable. what if the us moves  to blockade the med fleet while the uk moves to stop the baltic fleet. how would germany respond if
Ger 1: takes giblatar and builds 2 trns
UK 1: moves everthing to sz 06  and builds 1 destoyer, 1Car
US 1: moves 2trns and 1 destroyer to sz 12 and takes algeria.

[Guest]

Ooof… I think that’s worse.

You still send all the gear to Z06 that can make it, just like before, but you also pop Z12 with the Med fleet +1ftr (LIB).

It’s:
Ger: 1tra 1sub 1ftr 1btl
US: 2tra 1des

The calculated outcome is that the Germans don’t lose a single unit in Z12 and still smash Z06.

Good question to ask, but I think the definitive answer is that you get your lunch eaten if you do that.

[cyan]

@CrazyStraw:

Good question to ask, but I think the definitive answer is that you get your lunch eaten if you do that.

yeah i knew the american swould be anilalated but i thought it would make germany have to weaken it attack in sz 06 to do it . but if england lets germay link up in sz 7 coulnd’t germany atack england with
5 Inf, 3 Arm, 5 Fig, 1 Bom, 1 Bat. v.  4 Inf, 2 Art, 2 Arm, 3 Fig. i don’t know if i put all the units there but that would leave a 70% of germany taking England(if it lets its planes die)? so how would leting the german fleet unite be a good idea?

[DarthMaximus]

Was the 1-2 strafe discounted?

I think that is a great move.  You can’t assume bad play by the US player.
Rd 1 they’ll drop an AC with 2 ftrs into the Atlantic.  They’ll have 5 ftrs, 1 bom, 1 dd 2 trns to play with.

Likewise UK can buy either 3 ftrs or 2 ftrs + something else.

With a 3 ftr buy the UK doe not necessarily have to commit their trns and BB to the battle.  You can simply go airforce, it will cost you 65 IPC but you kill 3-4 units (probably subs).  It is a bad trade for UK but US mops up not having to worry about sub strikes.

Ultimately you trade 113 worth of units for the 100 IPC for Ger and UK still has its BB and US has 3-4 plnes left with AC and BB/trn on the way.

However, I think the better option is the 2-3 ftr UK 1 buy and smash Germany for 1 rd (possibly 2).  If Ger keeps the subs retreat out of there and keep you bb alive (don’t risk the first strike - let the US airforce pummel the subs for no risk), if they kill the subs go a second round.

US can still clean up with it choice of 5 ftrs, 1 bom, 1 dd, 2 trns.

With the strafe option you end up trading about 70-90 worth of Allied units for 100 of German. (5 trns, 3 subs, 1 dd, 1 bb)

This neither sets the Allies back or forces them to buy anything other then trns and troops from rd 2 on.  US still has an AC and BB and UK should still have its BB.

I don’t necessarily think it is a good gamble to “hope” your opponent makes a mistake so you can capitalize.

Let them unify, then crush them with the good ole 1-2.

[cyan]

@DarthMaximus:

Was the 1-2 strafe discounted?
Let them unify, then crush them with the good ole 1-2.

yeah i talked about in here. the uk has to buy a bb and only battles for 1 round(the us is doing most of the work)

@cyan:

UK1: buys 1bb (sounds crazy but wait)
US1: buys 2 bmb move figs t e. canada and the uk.
UK2: attacks for 1 round. takes out on averge 2 trns(while they lose 1)
US2: atacks with2 Fig, 4 Bom, 2 Tra, 1 Des. v. Defender: 3 Tra, 3 Sub, 1 Des, 1 Bat

@cyan:

now i ran it with 3 bmbs instead of 4 and got a 70% success rate. if germany saves the subs to subemge then it is a 85% that a germany unit will live(3 subs being the most likely at 42%) the median result for the us is 2 bmbs survive(15 % ) if germany decides to use it’s subs. if it decides to save them(killing the bb if necessary) it has a 25% chance of 3 bmb living. the good thing about this option is  that the UK can still attack noraway (if left emptied) and the US will be able to build a trn and inf or artillery. even though this allows more flexible there a good chance if germany rebuilds there going to be another naval battle(UK/US 3 or 4). the only thing this guarantees is that germany won’t be able to attack the UK on GER 3. Ger will loss 76 ipcs(16 on UK turn and 60 on the us turn) while there will be a loss of 8(UK) + 48(us)= 56 ipcs. the allies keep the UK navy and deal 20 ipcs of damage to Germany with the option of taking Norway or Algeria on R2.  also the us may be able to sbr germany latter. Germany meanwhile gains delaying the Atlantic threat and optimizes its navy. germany may even be able to start a new navy with the 3 subs present.

[DarthMaximus]

UK should buy either 2 ftrs + troops (ship??)
or 3 ftrs

US should follow up with AC and 2 ftrs.

[Guest]

Hey Darth.

Oh, I think you’re right on many points.  I agree with you that the attack in Z07 is better than blockading Z06 or Z12. Â

I’m not quite sure what you meant by “You can’t assume bad play by the US player.”  I don’t THINK, I am, but I may have missed something.  I think you’re referring to the options I laid out for the US attack on R2 because you plan on buying car/2ftr.  That is stronger for the Z07 attack, but again, by purchasing 3tra (or 1car) with the Germans, you are causing the Allies to buy 5ftr (roughly) plus capital ships.

That’s just great for Germany.  Germans want to see anything other than transports and ground units.

The statement that drives this debate for me is, “I don’t think any decent allied player would allow germany to unite their fleet in Z07.  It’s easy to spot, and easily countered.”

My whole point is that the counters aren’t easy, and that Germany likes forcing the Allies to use those counters.

The only thing I dislike about the Allied rotating attack is that you have to buy a lot of gear that is not destined to take land.  But it may be the best you can do.

Peace

[cyan]

@DarthMaximus:

UK should buy either 2 ftrs + troops (ship??)
or 3 ftrs

US should follow up with AC and 2 ftrs.

how is the ac going ot help the us? sz 7 is 3 spaces away?

[Guest]

Hey Cyan.

That’s a good puzzle for you.  Darth is right.  What is his plan?

Hint: Look in the rules about where you build units.  Page 22.

[DarthMaximus]

@CrazyStraw:

Hey Darth.

Oh, I think you’re right on many points.  I agree with you that the attack in Z07 is better than blockading Z06 or Z12. Â

I’m not quite sure what you meant by “You can’t assume bad play by the US player.”  I don’t THINK, I am, but I may have missed something.  I think you’re referring to the options I laid out for the US attack on R2 because you plan on buying car/2ftr.  That is stronger for the Z07 attack, but again, by purchasing 3tra (or 1car) with the Germans, you are causing the Allies to buy 5ftr (roughly) plus capital ships.

That’s just great for Germany.  Germans want to see anything other than transports and ground units.

The statement that drives this debate for me is, “I don’t think any decent allied player would allow germany to unite their fleet in Z07.  It’s easy to spot, and easily countered.”

My whole point is that the counters aren’t easy, and that Germany likes forcing the Allies to use those counters.

The only thing I dislike about the Allied rotating attack is that you have to buy a lot of gear that is not destined to take land.  But it may be the best you can do.

Peace

I gotcha.  My guess would be, you could go a long way to preventing it by just landing 2 Russian ftrs in Mos on Rus 1.  In which case it becomes questionable for the Germans to even attempt.  So in a sense you might be able to prevent it without it even being started.  Just a guess there.

Personally, I LOVE air as the Allies, and regardless of G1, I look to beef up both Allied airforces.  I don’t like the UK 1 attack on the Baltic with only 2 ftrs, 1 bom.  I think that is a bad move, which is usually why I forgo buying ships for G1 to encourage the attack.

I like Allied air b/c stationed in Wrus/Cauc/Mos you can prevent many potential moves including a J landing in Afr.

If possible I like to get an early 2nd bom with both UK and US but realistically that may not be possible so I really like 2 UK ftrs and then another 1-2 with US in rd 1, with additional ftrs in the subsequent rds.

My comment about “not assuming bad play” was just more of a general comment, you have to assume the Allies are going to coordinate well and you darn well better make sure the Allies don’t have something up their sleeve if you do go through with the unification.  It may not have meshed well with the specific scenerio you were dealing with.

I think you see where I’m coming from though, if US buys AC/air and can take out the G fleet (basically a wash in units), is it then worth it for the Germans to do so or is there a way to get even more out of their fleet.

It obviously must work in some cases and be worth it otherwise no one would use it, but I have a problem with investing 24 IPC (in 3 trns) on G1, in the hopes that the Allies don’t have a counter.  And I like air as the Allies so I don’t see it as a set back if the have to buy extra planes in rd 1.
I’ve thought about trying to go more navy on G1, but never pull the trigger b/c I figure my opponent is going to see what I’m up to and prevent it, in which case I put waaaay to much pressure on Japan to then try and bail me out.

[Guest]

@DarthMaximus:

I think you see where I’m coming from though, if US buys AC/air and can take out the G fleet (basically a wash in units), is it then worth it for the Germans to do so or is there a way to get even more out of their fleet.

Heh.  That IS the question.

The problem I have is that if the Germans don’t buy boats, what do the Allies do?

R1 UK buys 3tra.  Most players pop Baltic as Switch and I mentioned before.
R1 US buys maybe 2inf 2tnk 1car 1tra for Africa or 6inf 1tra 1car for EuroShuck.

R2 Both Allies go to Africa (or Norway)
All Europe from there on

So from R1 the Allies max production and can land troops in Africa early.  The Germans won’t be able to take out Allied transports cheaply at any time.

Heck, if you build no Baltic boats and you don’t take Gibraltar, in many instances I might go to Algeria R1.

So it’s not that the united fleet is unbeatable; it’s that the Allies are ON Germany very quickly if you don’t build some navy.

By spending 24 on boats:
1. Allies spend a lot more than that in the water
2. UK doesn’t build transports until R3 (R1 naval offense, R2 naval defense, R3 tra - this is simplified, of course)
3. You leverage the IPCs you already have in the water
4. You set up cascade failure points if the battles go favorably
5. You hold German revenue longer

Cons:
1. You’re down 8inf vs. Russia.

But the con is offset by the delay against UK/US.  Units that would have been in Western can move East instead, so it’s largely a wash on the land.

Peace

[nooob]

if germany is gonna spent 24ipc’s on 3trs on r1 why not make it 32 and go for acarrier and 2trns?

proceed with the fleet merger threat and then hold the allies off even longer…

the senarios described basically force a kgf anways…if kjf is tried the tnrs will help expediate the movement of r2 purchases through karielia and the transports can STILL be filled on g2 with the units in WE and left over cash.