In the fleet mass you mention Tri, there is no Japan IC on J1. Taht in itself is a limit to Japan in Asia.
You shouldn’t be building ICs on J1 if you suspect that much initial pressure against Japan. You still have plenty of troops to offload if you build 3 tran 2 inf on J1
Now… if Bury does not fall, US adds a bomber to the attack. If China holds (quite possible with the AF diversion to Bury and with the UK FIG flown in for defense), now you have 3 FIG, 1 BOM, 1 AC, 1 SUB.
If the UK fig is flown in for defense, then Bury is skipped. If the UK fig is not flown in, this situation only occurs 20% of the time. Even when this situation occurs, that means I might have to lose a carrier, destroyer, and sub, and perhaps 1 tran, while the US airforce is reduced to 1 fighter in Eastern US. I could even be willing to lose 1 fighter to take Buryatia, which extends the chances of taking Buryatia up to 92%.
The worse situation for Japan though is not a US 1 counter, it is US2.Â
As for Egypt, Germany gains some ground briefly, but with a massed Allied landing in north Africa such as is being done to me in my current game, Germany’s gains will be minor and short lived; in addition to Germany not being able to make massive progress against Russia even with Russian forces diverted to Asia due to the growing threat to Southern.
These are mutually exclusive events. The US cannot buy enough on US2 both provide meaningful pressure on Japan and get into Africa with massive forces.
What is being done to you is interesting, but has its own set of limitations. It requires the UK fleet to buy its own defense as it operates in the north, and the US can never help a 1-2 punch into the capital itself via navy. That first part, requiring the UK to buy its own defense, is impractical when facing a med/baltic naval link, which I think is the one main reason why I think it won’t work.