Anyone got the odds of an Axis take of Kar with 2+ arm when the attack looks like this:
13 inf, 7 arm, 2 ftrs, 1 bom vs. 19 inf, 3 arm, 1 ftr?
God dammit, I can’t keep up with you two. Good points on both sides. The only thing I was holding on to in the end that I could comment on was the fact that the US can reinforce KAR no problem, but DM got to that in his last post.
Since I’m the odds man around here, I’ll lay it down for you:
50% chance for attacker win, 48% chance for defender win, and about 2% chance for mutual kaboom.
The interesting part is that if the defender wins they come out looking a lot better than the offender. 28% of the time the defender will come out of the battle with all of its armor and a fighter. Within that 28%, there is a roughly even divide between infantry. That is, of the 28% pie, it is evenly divided between holding with not only the armor and fighter, but 0 inf, 1 inf, 2 inf, 3 inf, 4 inf, 5 inf. It is just as likely that Russia will hold with 1 inf as it does with 4. On the flipside…
There is about a 24% chance for the offense to succeed with armor on the ground, and saving its air. In that 24% chance there is a roughly even divide between 1 armor, 2 armor, 3 armor, 4 armor, and 5 armor. Talking outside of either of the above outcomes would be silly, as they would be very far from the mainstream dice.
Hope that helps. Obviously, germany can take out its air sooner rather than later to improve what it takes with. It really is still such a crapshoot. I wish people would stop having pipedreams about karelia.
I wish people would stop having pipedreams about karelia.
Not to mention that karelia is not Moscow…if Germany takes Karelia, that doesn’t mean the game is over for the Allies.
Hope that helps. Obviously, germany can take out its air sooner rather than later to improve what it takes with. It really is still such a crapshoot. I wish people would stop having pipedreams about karelia.
Thank you Fiendish! I had no idea the odds on that Karelia strike, even with taking out most of the UK navy, was such a close fight. Literally 50/50, and within that 50% either way, damn near equal percentages for either side to have AF plus up to 5 ARM left. I am honestly not sure that you could create a more “even” scenario in the game if you deliberately set out to do so :-)
Pipedrams about Karelia? Well for Germany, it is a rather juicy target, and one that, if taken and held, is a sizable victory for Germany. It cuts off Russia access to Eastern, Norway, and Ukraine and reduces Germany to only 2 territories to defend against Russia instead of 3 (or 4 if Germany takes Caucuses). Taking Karelia also shuts down the Allied feed into Russia, a critical task for Germany: one that is accomplished initially by destroying allied navy, and hopefully is accomplished later by position on the ground.
A quick whack and take of Karelia IS feasible (damn, I am back to where I started on this whole freakin board! LOL). And doing so leaves Germany in a strong position. No, it is NOT Russia, but it is a key tactical AND strategic objective. When combined with taking Caucuses through Naval landing as a joint push on G1, and combined with a strong Japan push from the east, it leaves Russia very weak very quickly; producing as few as 5 INF per round by R4, less losses to Japan SBR. And I am sorry, if Germany has taken and held Karelia, and still hold it at the end of T4, Russia is toast. No allied land forces are getting in to help them, Germany has forces in position for at least 1 swipe at Russia and is building forces at 3 times the rate Russia is, and Japan will be at the stage where their forces are poised for repeated swipes on Russia and building more than 2 times Russia’s level. By J5, Japan is sending tanks against Russia at a rate of a half dozen or more per round, backed up by AF and some INF. It won’t take long to whittle through the 20 or so INF and the couple of allied planes in Russia with that repeated volume of onslaught. And if the Axis is able to set up the 1-2-3 strike with a strong Japan hit, a small Russia build, a strong German hit, and a second strong Japan hit, Russia is going to fall.
And it does not matter who takes it. If Germany gets it, great. But even if Japan gets it, they are then able to pour forces into Europe to help Germany at the rate of 8 units per round of INF and ARM, and later figs and bombers.
Thanks for the odds aaFiendish.
ncscs, yes while Kar can be important, the round 1 assualt can often do more harm than good.
IMO, the best time to make the move on Kar would be right as Japan is about to take Novo. Usually this can be about rd 5.
This way Russia can do anything about it, can must concede both spots to the Axis.
If you go too early (or without sufficient force) with either Novo or Kar, then Russia has the ability to defend the one taken and pull out of the other, then on the following turn do the same thing to the other side.
It is similar to what Germany can do with WE-Ger-EE.
I don’t like putting my hopes in a 50% battle, especially that early in the game. I’d much rather place my bid in Afr, wait for Japan and then see if the battle shifts to 60%, 70%, 80% in my favor.
I agree with DM, but I’d like to add another point.
If Germany keeps its forces back, there does exist the possibility of an Axis lurch to an economic victory. Germany won’t be able to do its part (take Karelia, Ukraine, African territories?) if it spends its forces so early. By turn 5 or 6, Japan is usually at 45+ ipc and this is where Germany can help lurch to an economic victory by taking Ukraine/cauc, Karelia, African territories.
Just reminding folks that the specifics of this thread are a bit unique.
The opening concept is the threat of Sealion in G1 by building a Baltic tranny with the build. That threat assumes that Russia sends at least 1 fig to UK in R1 to counter. It also established RR so Germany would have 2 trannies in the Baltic for transporting forces to Karelia for G1 (if Russia did counter an immediate Sealion by sending a fig).
Thus the Karelia numbers are skewed quite a bit from “traditional” play: Germany with 4 extra INF, Russia with 1 fewer figs. That is a HUGE swing as relates to a G1 strike on Karelia.
And I firmly believe what others showed me here several weeks ago, based only on initial board set-up and no bid, Karelia is a BAD idea in G1. Personally, I like the G4 Karelia strike… hitting it before the Allies really start to land forces on the mainland using all of my armor, and a TON of INF (but alas no planes, my German AF is dead by then from attacking Navy)
Even with the 8 inf bid into the baltic, I think it is still shown that karelia is a bad idea. You have to do really well to not have karelia taken back, and if you don’t it’s game over. Effectively by placing that transport there you make your chances at taking karelia strongly better, but still marginal, and if russia does defend you have wasted 8 ipcs.
Even with the 8 inf bid into the baltic, I think it is still shown that karelia is a bad idea. You have to do really well to not have karelia taken back, and if you don’t it’s game over. Effectively by placing that transport there you make your chances at taking karelia strongly better, but still marginal, and if russia does defend you have wasted 8 ipcs.
1: If Russia does not send a fig to UK, you do Sealion, and you have a slightly better than 50% chance of winning the game right there.
2: If Russia does defend against Sealion, you have a 50/50 chance of taking Karelia. With 2 Japan figs flown in on J1 to aid in defense, Russia CANNOT retake Karelia on R2 (unless they staged a lot of forces back in Caucuses or Russia for the counter, in which case Germany has a heck of a lot more forces in Karelia, and their whole AF is intact.
3: The extra tranny gives you about a 50% chance of downing 1 UK fig on its wasy to Russia, a rather nice bonus for the Axis.
It is a series of gambits, each one approximately break-even for either side.
Of course, we are talking about game BALANCE, the idea that the Axis is too weak, thus bids were introduced. Most folks advocate a 12-15 IPC bid to balance in Europe. But I think with the odds that have been posted, this shows that 8 IPC’s in the form of a single tranny makes it dead-balls-on even for the first 3-4 rounds.
After that, it is up to the players to gain or lose that balance, which is the whole point of the game.
But again, Karelia is not Russia. In the worst case, Russia could just go with an all infantry buy for several turns and retreat the Asia forces and the Allies could land their fighters in Moscow. Germany won’t have sufficient forces to take Moscow, having only a couple tanks and Japan is still several turns away. The Allies will have sufficient force to retake Karelia for Russia, probably before Japan can get to Novo. Now Germany will be spent and will probably collapse before Japan can muster sufficient force to take Moscow.
I think this is a good plan, but its not as good IMO as a power africa or power europe move with the bid.
@221B:
But again, Karelia is not Russia. In the worst case, Russia could just go with an all infantry buy for several turns and retreat the Asia forces and the Allies could land their fighters in Moscow.
OK, so you do this… abandon Karelia after Germany takes it and allow Germany to build there, pull back your forces in the East and Defend Russia.
WHAT are you going to build WITH? The 8 IPC’s from Russia? Maybe plus another 2-4 for Novo and Kazakh?
Once Germany takes Karelia and starts building there, Germany starts to build up troop volume also, at nearly 40 IPC’s to Russia’s pitiful total of around a dozen. 10 INF and 2 tanks per round vs. 4 INF build per round. Even with the Allied figs, it won;t take long for me to overwhelm that force while simlutaneously reinforcing other areas of Europe to protect against the UK and US trannied forces.
And I only have to really HOLD 3 territories: Germany, Eastern and Karelia. I can allow Western and even Southern to trade hands so long as I do not let the Allies build in Southern, and so long as I keep collect income on them at the end of my turn.
Well, I don’t think Germany will be able to keep it… or keep at a 40 ipc level because WE, SE, EE and even Karelia will be weakly defended. I could be wrong, but I don’t think Germany will be able to reinforce all of these before the allies can successful take some of them or before Germany will make Russia fall.
I do think your plan is good, but I don’t think it is good enough to win.
To put it into perspective, most people consider a 12 bid is necessary for the Axis to have a real chance of winning…so it might be the best possible way to win with an 8 bid. Here the odds are 50/50 on either UK or Karelia. As the Allies, I’d rather lose Karelia. Then what are the odds for being able to take Russia…I don’t know…I’m going to guess 50/50 here so perhaps 25% chance of winning Russia overall (the Allies could still win if Russia falls, but I’ll not consider it here).
With an 8 bid PA or PE plan, your odds for the Axis aren’t going to be that good either, I’d guess maybe 20%.
With a tech roll, the odds of one dice getting IT, or HB (the game winning technologies) is about 5%. 10% with rolling two dice.
Lots of guessing, so again, this may be the best approach with only an 8 bid.
@221B:
Well, I don’t think Germany will be able to keep it… or keep at a 40 ipc level because WE, SE, EE and even Karelia will be weakly defended. I could be wrong, but I don’t think Germany will be able to reinforce all of these before the allies can successful take some of them or before Germany will make Russia fall.
I think you might be forgetting a few points of the strat:
1: Russia is building in Russia, and has not viable forces for a counter (except maybe Caucuses)
2: UK has no fleet, so no units coming in to Europe on UK1, possibly not on UK 2 either.
That means Germany has at least G2 to start building up forces before they even have to THINK about anyone countering them. And that first build is going to be 41 IPC’s (up Karelia, Caucuses, FWA, FEA, and BC)
At the end of G2, Germany is going to get paid AT LEAST another 38 IPC’s (assuming Russia re-took Karelia in R2 and Germany did not take it back), perhaps more depending on when and how UK countered my blitzing forces in Africa. Even with Caucuses re-taken, I well could have another 41 IPC build for G3.
Compare that to a Russian build of 24 for R2, 16 for R3, 17 at most for R4
And UK at 30 for UK1, 26 for UK2, 20 for UK3.
And of course UK has some expensive builds to do… a carrier, loaded trannies…
Remember it initially costs UK 14 IPC’s to get 2 INF into battle and 13 IPC’s to get 1 tank into battle, while Germany only needs the usual 3 and 5 IPC’s respectively. That means Germany has 5 times UK’s economic power in turns 1-3 at least.
The opening concept is the threat of Sealion in G1 by building a Baltic tranny with the build. That threat assumes that Russia sends at least 1 fig to UK in R1 to counter. It also established RR so Germany would have 2 trannies in the Baltic for transporting forces to Karelia for G1 (if Russia did counter an immediate Sealion by sending a fig).
But it is not really a threat. Kar minus 1 ftr is not a big deal.
Also I believe there is only like a 3% chance of getting HB on G1 for Sealion. 16% to get a 1, then 16% to get whatever HB are, so .16 * .16 = .025 or 2.5%.
Is this right?
Again, so you get lucky and win a game via Sealion on G1, but if you do this everytime you’ll lose more than 95% of your games. I’d much rather be on the 95% win side. I’m sure with an 8 bid to Europe, Afr, or even Asia you can win more than 3-5% of your games.
I think what some of us are trying to get across is, yes the Kar strike or Sealion could work, but that that win is solely based on the outcome of whether you get good dice or bad, not whether you played a superior strategic game.
Gosh, I’m starting to sound like Panda. :-D
And over the long term if you employ this strat, you won’t win very many games.
It would be no different if you just played a regular game and started teching right away. Heck 3% of the time you get IT or HB with Ger in rd 1 and probably have a very good chance of winning that game. But that is not a fool proof strat for straight-up, and still doesn’t take away the need for bids.
Heck, someone who never ever played A&A before can come along roll for tech and beat me this way (the Sealion attack). I certainly wouldn’t call them a better player me. They just got lucky, it happens, and it happens maybe 3-5% of the time with this specific attack.
I think Panda (although it could have been another Club player, I’m not sure) used to say about 20% of the games are decided by dice, what you should look for are ways to win the 80% of the games that aren’t.
The chance of any specific tech is 1 in 36 per tech die.
The chance of any random tech is 1 in 6.
Ger 1 can afford 6, which gives 6 in 36 chances of HB.
The other valid tech would be LRA. Which also helps, but not as much dicewise, as HB.
SS helps, but even less.
NC also posted (maybe another thread) about IT, but Ger will need need income to use that. The R2-3 will strip much of that income away. KGF will commence, and Ger will be short on air power.
I thought the point of the $8 trn bid was that G1 invasion of UK when Rus does nothing to help defend the capital is that it gave decent odds without either tech.
UK sz:
trn + BB + Sub® + trn® vs. (Ger) 3 ftr + 2 Sub
8 vs. 13
UK
AA + 2 inf + arm + 2ftr + Bmr vs. 4 inf + 2 ftr + Bmr.
3 + 15 vs. 14
Just remember that the invasion is pretty much all or nothing. The loss of all of that air power will be wasted if UK holds, not to mention what R2 brings with $0 spent on the ground to counter.
Thanks Linkon, you got the point of the earlier part of the thread, basically that if Germany does do Sealion on G1, almost ANY tech helps them in that fight. LRA and HB being the 2 best, either one basically guaranteeing victory unless Russia sends a fig to help. But SS helps on the naval battle, Tech allows Germany to build up quickly if Sealion fails, and Rockets reduces Russia’s future builds.
The R2-R3 moves against Germany are not THAT significant. Germany will still have almost all of their land forces (down 4 INF).
So, with the initial strat as posted…
1. Russia does not send fig(s) to UK to defend against Sealion. Germany rolls tech and has 33% chance of hitting a tech that GUARANTEES Sealion victory. The other 67% of the time they have a slight edge. Call it a win 4 times in 5.
2. Russia does send a fig to UK blocking Sealion. Germany builds land forces and goes for Karelia and Caucuses. Caucuses is virtually empty (1 INF) and falls to BB and 2 INF. Karelia is a 50/50 fight, and if it falls Russia can;t re-take in R2 due to Japan figs flown in for defense. Also, UK has no fleet to tranny forces in before UK3.
I am not calling this a sure thing. I am calling it one hell of a first-strike strat for Germany that offers at least 50/50 chances of pulling off an Axis win for the game by making major gains in G1 that cannot be totally countered by the Allies until MANY turns later, assuming that Allies play extremely well, that dice go against the Axis, or the Axis player plays poorly.
In other words, it is a strategy that preserves game balance, and makes it worth playing out :-)
The R2-R3 moves against Germany are not THAT significant. Germany will still have almost all of their land forces (down 4 INF).
No they will also be down 9 inf, 1 arm or 10 inf since they went for dice. If no tech and Sealion fails it is game over.
1. Russia does not send fig(s) to UK to defend against Sealion. Germany rolls tech and has 33% chance of hitting a tech that GUARANTEES Sealion victory. The other 67% of the time they have a slight edge. Call it a win 4 times in 5.
Nothing guarentees victory. What if UK gets 1-3 aa hits??? What if you lose the naval battle? Things can happen.
Example, I got 9 hits with only 17 inf in my game with Madscientist, likewise, he got 8 hits with only 14 inf and 2 ftrs. On J1 I attacked China with 5 inf, 3 ftrs and LOST. I finally cleared it but I had to retreat only 2 ftrs. And MS got hammered on his UK 1 egy counter, he lost 3 inf, and 1 ftr against only 3 inf and 1 arm. He was left with only his bom.
This is what can happen when you only try to win by being “lucky”, you never know how the dice are going to go. It is not a good long term strat.
2. Russia does send a fig to UK blocking Sealion. Germany builds land forces and goes for Karelia and Caucuses. Caucuses is virtually empty (1 INF) and falls to BB and 2 INF. Karelia is a 50/50 fight, and if it falls Russia can;t re-take in R2 due to Japan figs flown in for defense. Also, UK has no fleet to tranny forces in before U
I disagree, Russia will easily reclaim. That is if Ger also trys to hit the UK sz.
I am not calling this a sure thing. I am calling it one hell of a first-strike strat for Germany that offers at least 50/50 chances of pulling off an Axis win for the game by making major gains in G1 that cannot be totally countered by the Allies until MANY turns later, assuming that Allies play extremely well, that dice go against the Axis, or the Axis player plays poorly.
But it is not that good of a strat. Russia should probably let G try Sealion and you can have your 16% win percentage, I’ll gladly take the 80+% win percentage.
This strat is based solely on luck and is easily defendable with Russia help and reduces the game to a G1 crap shoot, whether it is in UK or Kar.
In other words, it is a strategy that preserves game balance, and makes it worth playing out
But at best it only gives you a 16% chance to win. That is not very balanced.
If it were a viable strat, it would be used more in the PBEM Clubs and bids wouldn’t be as high as they are.
No they will also be down 9 inf, 1 arm or 10 inf since they went for dice. If no tech and Sealion fails it is game over.
So they may or may not lose Ukraine or Eastern. They do an INF build and consolidate on their core 4 territories. Sealion will NOT fail uless the dice go south for Germany. You don;t need GOOD dice, you just need AVERAGE dice. For example, 6 tech rolls is an average of 1 hit. Super Subs means the naval battle is almost a give-me. Heavy Bombers means an extra kill per turn on the battle, LRA adds a third fig, allowing for 1 to be lost to AA and still have enough firepower to win. IT gives you enough to be able to build 15 INF in G2, quickly making up not building in G1. Jets, well you will have at least 2 figs surviving G1, probably 3. Go ahead, attack me with 3 almost automatic kills per round of defense. Rockets? say goodbye to 1-2 Russian INF every round until the end of the game.
1. Russia does not send fig(s) to UK to defend against Sealion. Germany rolls tech and has 33% chance of hitting a tech that GUARANTEES Sealion victory. The other 67% of the time they have a slight edge. Call it a win 4 times in 5.
Nothing guarentees victory. What if UK gets 1-3 aa hits??? What if you lose the naval battle? Things can happen.
Sure, things can happen. 1 INF can take Karelia with the right dice. Japan can take Washington D.C in J3 with the right dice. You set a strategy based on averages, and with the averages in your favor, you take your chances. And with an extra tranny and no Russian figs to help out, the averages are in Germany’s favor for a Sealion victory. With the Russian fig in UK, the averages are dead even for Karelia.
2. Russia does send a fig to UK blocking Sealion. Germany builds land forces and goes for Karelia and Caucuses. Caucuses is virtually empty (1 INF) and falls to BB and 2 INF. Karelia is a 50/50 fight, and if it falls Russia can;t re-take in R2 due to Japan figs flown in for defense. Also, UK has no fleet to tranny forces in before U
I disagree, Russia will easily reclaim. That is if Ger also trys to hit the UK sz.
Then you have not read all of the posts. The dead-even Karelia battle assumes EVERYTHING in western Russia (Russia, Karelia, Caucuses) is IN Karelia to hold it (except 1 INF as a place holder in Caucuses or Russia; and the 1 fig in UK). If the battle goes in favor of the Germans (which it will 50% of the time based on Fiendish’s calculations) then the ONLY forces Russia has for a counter in r2 is the 1 tank form Yakut that staged to Novo, and the 2 Evenk INF that staged to Russia; both moves in R1. Fly in 2 Japan figs in J1, and that is 1 tank and 2 INF against 2 figs and a MINIMUM of 1 ARM.
A 3 and 2 1’s against a 2 and 2 4’s. Russia gets 1 hit, then loses both INF. They may or may not get another hit before the 3rd piece is killed. That leaves Germany with Karelia with a Japan fig present. Even if Russia does well above average, both sides destroyed, Karelia still belongs to Germany, with the ability to build there in G2, and forces to move forward from Eastern, and their Caucuses INF to move in as well if they choose.
I am not calling this a sure thing. I am calling it one hell of a first-strike strat for Germany that offers at least 50/50 chances of pulling off an Axis win for the game by making major gains in G1 that cannot be totally countered by the Allies until MANY turns later, assuming that Allies play extremely well, that dice go against the Axis, or the Axis player plays poorly.
But it is not that good of a strat. Russia should probably let G try Sealion and you can have your 16% win percentage, I’ll gladly take the 80+% win percentage.
Then again you missed some of the early posts.
Combat Moves:
UK Sea Zone: Eastern, Ukraine and German figs (unless Long Range hit, then German fig to UK). Both subs. Loaded trannies (see below)
UK: Empty 2 trannies with 4 INF (3 from Norway, 1 from Western), Norway fig, Western fig, Bomber (and German fig if LRAF tech)
Combat:
UK Sea Zone: The subs and figs destroy the up to 1 BB, 2 trannies and 1 sub present. Only question is how much survives.
UK: The average 1st attack is 3 UK units dead (all land forces). Defender roll is average 3 attackers dead (3 INF)
2nd roll is 2 UK units dead (fig and bomber), defender is 2 attackers dead (2 figs).
3rd rolls is 1 UK unit dead, last fig (all gone) and defender 1 attacker dead, bomber (1 INF alive)
This strat is based solely on luck and is easily defendable with Russia help and reduces the game to a G1 crap shoot, whether it is in UK or Kar.
No, the “luck” factor of a tech hit is simply INSURANCE. Sealion works without tech in this scenario, more than half the time.
If it were a viable strat, it would be used more in the PBEM Clubs and bids wouldn’t be as high as they are.
Then Darth you tell me… if Germany drops 1 extra tranny on an 8 IPC build, what are you going to do to counter it? I assume sending forces from Russia to block what is a strat that actually FAVORS the Axis if you add in tech rolls (and is slightly in their favor even without tech rolls). Good, tranny some INF to UK, or fly a fig over. That just has me shift and attack a weaker Karelia.
Why is it not used? Maybe no one thought of it as a REVERSABLE strategy, where if Sealion were blocked, the extra trannies could be used to send more forces to Karelia. Maybe no one had the balls to split the German AF to still hit most of their navy AND have air support in Karelia. Maybe no one combined an intensified Karelia strike with a Caucuses amphib.
But above I reposted the numbers for the Sealion strike WITHOUT tech rolls. You tell me where the flaw is (other than a 50/50 chance of losing 1 german plane to AA)
Oh, and let’s consider 1 other factor regarding a G1 Sealion attempt. The claim is that the war is over if they lose.
Maybe, maybe not.
If it was executed as I specified, Germany probably has at least 1 technology. But let’s say they did not hit any technology (30 IPC’s spent, no return) and they got ripped in Sealion (lost all of their forces)
UK still has no UK Sea Zone navy.
UK land forces available for immediate transport are gone, as is their bomber and one or both of their figs (no extra defense heading for Russia)
Germany still has 2 or 3 of their figs, and all of their land forces except 4 INF.
I will probably have to dig-in pretty hard as Germany, and will probably have to give up on Ukraine and lose my advance force in Caucuses, but I am still going to out-build Russia by 4 INF in G2, and 2-3 in G3, and quite possibly into G4 as well. Taht still allows me a pretty serious Fortress Europe
AND I still have enough AF left to take another swipe at the Allied fleet if I choose, forcing UK to still build that AC, and definitely requiring the US figs to be sent for defensive duty in teh UK sea zone instead of use elsewhere (like pinning down Japan)
I am serious, this is a gambit I would play every day as Germany with a small bid, until someone figured out that even 8 IPC’s may be too much to maintain game balance (I AM a purist afterall). And to be honest, I hope like hell that the Allied player would take the “easy counter” of sending a fig to UK in R1. Let me fight Russia as Germany. Makes me happy, and allows me to maximize my dual-front strategy for crushing Russia to the max.
I think it is unfortunate switch that you are hellbent on relying on a strategy that gives you a 50% chance. I personally feel that the game should start out with a roughly 50% chance of each side winning. The goal that I place upon myself is increasing my odds to something much higher than that throughout the game and then taking that chance.
I feel that by attacking karelia you are taking the chance that if you win, and win very strongly, it will probably give you the game. 50% of the time you won’t win the karelia battle, however, and you just won’t be able to recover. Yes you can hole up in germany and create a strong fortress europe, but with all of your armor and most of your inf spent, you won’t ever really be a threat. Okay, if you get heavy bombers you might be, but I find tech pretty cheesy in this case, and most others. Instead of using tech to make the game even, I would prefer to add units to give me that 50%, and then through good play raise my percentage. I define good play as a series of moves and attacks that give me favorable position and unit exchange. I guess I just don’t like the fact that the absolute worst player in existence could still win simply by rolling heavy bombers, whereas if they did not tech they probably never would. It does not even the ground between the axis and allies, it evens the ground between good and bad players. That is just my opinion though, and I wouldn’t even consider myself a good player, I just try to be.
In terms of karelia, if you take it and I have no transports as the UK I will hit it with naked air and clean up whatever is left. I’ll probably lose a plan or two in the process, but that’s the breaks. If you land your fighters from japan there, I will attack it with 2 1’s and 2 3’s (you forgot the fighter in the UK?) giving me a 80% chance of taking. We then trade for another round. Yes it is a pain if germany takes it, but that 50% chance is what irks me. If you were able to win assuredly after the 50% chance, okay maybe. As it is though, you could definitely still lose. If it pans out it makes the game pretty even, but if it doesn’t it makes it pretty uneven.
I’m going off of memory here, but with the odds I ran for karelia and the assumption that you were planning on hitting the canada tranny with a sub?, that leaves you attacking UK seas with 3 fighters, 1 sub vs. 1 battleship, 1 sub, 2 transports. That gives you only 70% chance of winning (combined with your other 50%), and when you win you will most likely lose at least one fighter, maybe two. If you attack with two subs and your three fighters, you have a 90% chance of winning, much better. It is still quite probably that you lose a fighter, though less so. Now there is a pesky transport that can go to karelia though, allowing the UK to take it back if you managed to take it in the first place. You could try and leave a sub to block that, but then you decrease your chances of taking and substantially increase fighter loss. Indeed, if you tried to leave a sub you would probably be down to 1 fighter, 2 fighters at most really. If you were only left with one fighter, I wouldn’t bother building a carrier and I’d just go heavy on the transports. If you took with two fighters, I’ll probably still have to build an AC, but at that point you would have a damn weak assault against the navy and in UK 2 troops begin landing.
Switch,
I agree with the others here that this isn’t really a great chance of winning. With Russia moving first, the landing of a couple of Russian infantry, or a fighter or two in the UK on noncombat will adequately protect the UK.Â
AAfiendish pointed out that if Karelia does fall, the UK (and US with the bomber, and USSR with their fighters from the UK as well) could strafe Karelia removing any German and Japanese forces. Considering the most likely outcomes in an axis victory would be 1, or 2 tanks, this would let Germany keep Karelia but not have any forces there after the strafe = no attack on the next turn. You will have a couple of tanks from W. Europe that can be moved to E. Europe, but that won’t be enough to take Moscow (8 inf + 1 surviving fighters vs. 2 tanks + 5 fighters, the odds favor the Allies 57% to 43%) Then Russia will get the time to build “fortress Moscow”, the UK and US will soon be attacking Germany from the west.
OR the Allies could take the 8 or so infantry Russia (along with reinforcements from the east) will build on R2 and add the UK fighters for defense for a stand in Moscow. Assuming the most likely favorable outcome for the Axis, 8 inf + 3 fighters defending against 3 tanks + 5 fighters. Again the odds favor the Allies ( I again get 57% to 43% when I run the numbers, my odds calculator is home so I am doing this manually, am I correct AAfiendish??).Â
Now, to be fair I think this is an innovative plan as I have said before:
@221B:
To put it into perspective, most people consider a 12 bid is necessary for the Axis to have a real chance of winning…so it might be the best possible way to win with an 8 bid.Â
But the following:
@ncscswitch:
I am serious, this is a gambit I would play every day as Germany with a small bid, until someone figured out that even 8 IPC’s may be too much to maintain game balance (I AM a purist afterall).Â
Is not correct, 8 ipcs are not enough for a fair game, let alone too much for game balance. Here you have a 50/50 chance at the UK, unless countered by Russia on R1. If Russia does counter, you have a 50/50 chance at Karelia, followed by chances at Moscow where the Allies are favored to win. However far Germany gets, failing to take either London or Moscow essentially leaves Germany toothless and the game for the Axis will be over shortly. This is not a balanced game, the Allies are still favored and this plan relys on luck to win.
If I only had an 8 bid and still had to play Axis, I might try this, but I’d rather feint the operation sealion and play traditionally with a noncombat move of both the Norway tank and two infantry to Africa with this bid . Or I might try rolling for tech. Or I might play it straight with fortress Europe and a PA bid of infantry and a tank. Or I might take a second transport in the med. None of these would really matter, the Axis does not have enough for a “fair” game and I will need either luck or poor play on the part of the Allies to win.
