@hcp:
Zhukov, might I ask that, under such FIC/Hainan naval base case, are there conditions that you would still consider stacking Yunnan using the remaining troops (ANZAC, Russia, Chinese, … and potential the 4 UK mech)? I wish to see if there are other ways to delay the J5 India fall (by land).
This depends on many factors, including what Japan and USA are doing (is USA going KJF?, did Japan move all their land units south or are they keeping some units up north to face Siberians?, are the Japanese stacked at Human or Kweichow?). Generally speaking, it’s more important to defend India. But if you can defend India and still stack Yunnan, it might be worth it. You don’t need 50/50 odds, in many cases, especially in kjf, it’s still worth stacking Yunnan if Japan attacking Yunnan will result in a net negative tuv exchange. But note that if you take this risk (inviting a high-risk Japanese attack) you can’t assume these fighters on Yunnan will be available to you later to defend Moscow.
It seems to me that if Japan wants India bad enough it’s usually possible for them to take it on J5, but that comes at a cost if Japan needs to spend resources on naval and air bases and neglect securing the crucial money islands to do so.