Final Global setup!

[Derek]

I honestly beleive Sealion on G3 is still  plausible.

Your looking at ~24 INF (depending on how succesfull SBR was on G2)
1 mech
~6fighters (depeding on whether or not he scrambles to defend seazones or incoming SBRs)
1 tac bomber
5 AA guns

vs

13 INF
5 arty
8 tanks (you could position differently on G2 and send more tanks and less arty but it really shouldnt change anything)
~4 tacs (depending on how many you lost to SBRs)
~3 fighters (depending how many were lost in attacking SZ 111 and if any are lost during SBRs)
~2 bombers (depending if you lost any to SBR

Plug those into a battlecalc…Saying that he never scrambled his fighters, you lost 2 fighters in attacking SZ 111 and one tac during SBR.

72% win for Germany on 10000 sims.

Now obviously battlecalc doesnt count for using AA guns as fodder. (id say its closer to 67% win for Germany which is a risk/ with great reward)

but really it depends on whether or not he scrambles fighters to defend seazones and or SBRs
and how succesfull SBR was on london IC.

Ideally he should never scramble to save his fighters for defense of sealion.

If you are using R&D and UK gets Radar then forget it lol

[Young Grasshopper]

To many variables to predict, and plans for sealion must be made sooner than those variables can reveal themselves. Still, sounds like your worst case senerio is around 50/50, which if true we may need to reevaluate the reward.

[Derek]

basically if UK does not 100% do everything in its power to protect london on UK1 and UK2, Germany can still take London on G3.

I just did one test and with UK in full defend london mode, on G3 sealion was succesfull, however only 1 tank 2 tacs and 2 strats survived the assault. Hardly a decisive victory. Germany will be weak to both a USSR push and a USA push.

So my thoughts are the changes work.

[Cow]

Anyone got cards I can print out or something? Or a link to a bunch of text which tells me where each unit is.

Not everyone plays by forum or email. I do live games only, which limits me to triple A and the actual board game setup in real life.
~
germany may have to drop scotland and invade UK the round after. you know instead of G3 do G4.

[Derek]

http://www.harrisgamedesign.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=40&t=6149 - this is alpha +3.5

below is the few changes recently made for alpha +3.9:
"Krieghund wrote:
Here are the current changes:

Move the French cruiser in 112 to 110.
Move the UK cruiser in 112 to 111.
Move the German cruiser and transport in 113 to 114.
Add 1 UK mechanized infantry and 1 French infantry to United Kingdom.
Add 1 UK infantry and 1 AA gun to Scotland.
Change 1 French tank and 1 French artillery in France to equivalent UK units.

Change the Soviet “Spread of Communism” NO to “3 IPCs for each original German, Italian, or pro-Axis neutral territory that the Soviet Union controls.”

I have reviewed the above changes with Larry, and they are now official as written. We’ve also added 1 AA gun to India, bringing the total there to 3.

---

A&A Developer and Playtester" (Kreighund)

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=25530.0 - These are 94Cunuck’s Global Game aids they look great, only thing they do not include those few changes made recently in 3.9 (not really a huge deal)

[Funcioneta]

@Krieghund:

As this was a public playtest effort, there are two kinds of people: those who participated and those who shouldn’t complain about the results.

Thanks to all of those who participated!

Comments noted

[knp7765]

@Young:

To many variables to predict, and plans for sealion must be made sooner than those variables can reveal themselves. Still, sounds like your worst case senerio is around 50/50, which if true we may need to reevaluate the reward.

I agree. Yes, Germany will get Britain’s treasury and taking UK out will certainly make it much easier for Italy in Africa, but it also brings Russia and America into the war. USA will probably wreck any plans Japan had plus make trouble for Germany and/or Italy. If Russia suspects a Sealion, I would guess they would buy more tanks and mechs (as opposed to Inf and Art) and just come steamrolling over Germany’s weak eastern border territories. Even though Germany will have a lot of money to buy plenty of protection for Berlin, Russia could go hog wild down in the Balkans and up in Scandanavia. It’s possible Germany may lose more territory than they can take back. Personally, I’m not so sure that Sealion is worth it in Alpha+3. Ever since I started using the Alpha+3 setup and rules, I don’t do Sealion anymore.  I just sink the Royal Navy and keep UK busy with convoy raids and SBRs and focus most of my attention on attacking Russia.
@Cow:

germany may have to drop scotland and invade UK the round after. you know instead of G3 do G4.

Actually, that sounds like a pretty good idea.  You would have twice as many land units to attack with and the UK would have a max of 10 more infantry to defend with.  Better odds to win plus more surviving units to transport back to fight the Russians. OR, if UK attacks those units in Scotland, it’s that much less he has defending London.

[techroll42]

I’ve never seen as many benefits of Sealion since I found Alpha+3.

But with the clumped navy and the extra AA/2 inf/mech, UK has a better chance of defending.

And remember, UK is very hard to defend against a concerted US attack with only having a minor there.

[Derek]

@knp7765:

@Young:

To many variables to predict, and plans for sealion must be made sooner than those variables can reveal themselves. Still, sounds like your worst case senerio is around 50/50, which if true we may need to reevaluate the reward.

I agree. Yes, Germany will get Britain’s treasury and taking UK out will certainly make it much easier for Italy in Africa, but it also brings Russia and America into the war. USA will probably wreck any plans Japan had plus make trouble for Germany and/or Italy. If Russia suspects a Sealion, I would guess they would buy more tanks and mechs (as opposed to Inf and Art) and just come steamrolling over Germany’s weak eastern border territories. Even though Germany will have a lot of money to buy plenty of protection for Berlin, Russia could go hog wild down in the Balkans and up in Scandanavia. It’s possible Germany may lose more territory than they can take back. Personally, I’m not so sure that Sealion is worth it in Alpha+3. Ever since I started using the Alpha+3 setup and rules, I don’t do Sealion anymore.  I just sink the Royal Navy and keep UK busy with convoy raids and SBRs and focus most of my attention on attacking Russia.
@Cow:

germany may have to drop scotland and invade UK the round after. you know instead of G3 do G4.

Actually, that sounds like a pretty good idea.  You would have twice as many land units to attack with and the UK would have a max of 10 more infantry to defend with.  Better odds to win plus more surviving units to transport back to fight the Russians. OR, if UK attacks those units in Scotland, it’s that much less he has defending London.

USA will be in the war on turn 4 regardless of whether or not you took london lol

same with USSR

Not taking London in my opinion is a death wish for the axis,

UK will not be able to defend itself on G4 on london no matter what is does (it barely can now on G3)
Only really really bad dice will upset you and that is true in every faucit of the game

[Young Grasshopper]

An experienced player will be able to see sealion comming as early as G2, and a defensive round 1 from all the allies before the threat becomes clear, will allow them good position to react accordingly when the threat become reality. by preparing this way, the allies will crush Germany even after they take London successfully. Are there any play testers that disagree with this?

[Derek]

I know that cmdr Jen talked in depth about taking London on G3 (Before Alpha +3.9)

With the new settup (Alpha +3.9) you may want to wait till G4 (This may be better timed to a J4 Crush Calcutta anyhow)
And then the USA will not enter the war prematurely.

I do know that if Germany does it right there is absolutely nothing in UKs power to stop London from falling (Barring erratic dice of course)
This is fact, set the board up yourself and try it.
Do everything that UK can possible do to beef up London on its turn 1,2 and 3. Germany will still take London on G3 if Germany knows what its doing.
(Which includes heavy SBRs)
And noone can help UK in the Atlantic theater till round 4. USSR cant send planes, USA cant send planes either, till round 4 (Which is after Germanys 4)

And the USA will not be able to take London back till atleast its turn 5. USA moves into position on its turn 4, then next round assaults London. So Germany will have one round atleast to beef up defenses.

If UK doesnt assume that London will be attacked and doesnt rally up fighters and the tac from the med on UK1 and instead uses them in the med or N Africa then they will be out of reach to protect UK on UK2 and Germany can take advantage of this and hit on G3.

So UK must assume that London will be assaulted by G4.

[Guest]

@Uncrustable:

Do everything that UK can possible do to beef up London on its turn 1,2 and 3. Germany will still take London on G3

Wrong.

[Derek]

@Vance:

@Uncrustable:

Do everything that UK can possible do to beef up London on its turn 1,2 and 3. Germany will still take London on G3

Wrong.

nice one word post. that adequately describes how the UK can stop sealion in G4 lol

If UK buys maximim units on UK1 and moves all planes it can into pos on UK1
never scramble fighters if they risk being lost.
Then UK2 move those planes into UK (repair SBR damage and maximum buy units on UK again. move remaining navy out of Germany navys range so you have some units to block from shore bombard on UK3)
You are losing atleast 6IPCs from convoy raids plus whatever money you have to spend to repair ur IC to make units
and axis only need to take and hold on euro UK territory to take away the UK euro NO
on UK3 move remaining navy to atleast block naval bombard and any more planes that managed to reach UK have to be in London on this turn.
depending on SBR dice rolls you may or may not even be able to afford to make more than a few units on UK3
On G4 barring erratic dice (if the germany player knows what he is doing) london will fall, every time

id like to see the other side if there is one

[Guest]

sigh.

If Germany does all the things it can do to help its chances of pulling off a sea lion, and UK does all the things it can do to defend itself, what are the odds that the sea lion will work with the final setup?  Go look through the “sea lion in alpha 3 thread” at the harris site and you will find the answer.

With the final setup, sea lion is always a valid threat but it will only actually happen if one side is incompetent.  If the axis prepare for a possible sea lion on round 1 and the allies play incompetently, then Germany can take London without losses that are so bad that they lose the game elsewhere.  If the allies defend UK properly and the axis go through with it anyway, then they are incompetent and they will lose the game.  Those checks and balances have been very carefully thought out.

[Derek]

I completely disagree.

Germany could take london on G3 with miminal losses in alpha 3

now with the slightly changed settup germany can still take it with minimal losses but not til G4

Try it yourself i already have several times

Germany will only lose INF and maybe a couple planes to AA

[Guest]

I suppose sea lion could also happen if BOTH sides are incompetent.

[Derek]

There is nothing UK can do to stop sealion on G4 if that is Germany goal (other than incompetent Germany play or erratic dice)

Id love for someone to explain how (someone who actually tested it) UK can easily stop it like vance says

[Guest]

I did not say they can easily stop it.  The odds of London falling are somewhere around 2/3 with Germany throwing all resources into it and UK defending maximally.  It is not a sure thing, and definitely not equivalent to winning the game!

[Derek]

odds are closer to 75% Germany takes London on G4

USA can attempt to liberate though on USA5

Im not saying it is the be-all-end-all
Just that it can be done no matter what UK does

If USA puts enough resources they can take it back on USA5
But lets say on J4 Calcutta falls.

Crush Calcutta can be done on J4 (one AA gun is the only difference in the pacific theater for UK)

[techroll42]

The thing is that if the Axis takes London, the US will retake it easily and Russia will crash down from the east.

Whereas it is virtually impossible for Moscow to be liberated until the game is REALLY over (IMHO Berlin will fall before Moscow, and the only way Moscow is recaptured is if the Allies feel like retaking it (and historically they might not have…)