Experimental Alpha 4 Game - Wrongway Corrigan vs. Noll

[corriganbp]

45% of your shots at 2 hit.

[corriganbp]

sometimes 90% odds are just not enough, now what to do???

[corriganbp]

Attack
N Ukraine (2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac) with
E poland,
3 tacs fr w Germany
2 bmbs fr s Italy
2 ftrs fr 115

48 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 32 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 19@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2919@1: (4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 6, 4, 3, 3, 6, 4, 5, 6, 2, 5, 6, 3)62@2: (5, 1, 4, 6, 4, 1, 2, 4, 6, 5, 6, 6, 2, 3, 1, 4, 4, 4, 5, 4, 2, 1, 1, 2, 5, 5, 1, 6, 3, 1, 3, 2, 2, 6, 2, 5, 6, 3, 3, 5, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5, 1, 3, 3, 6, 1, 4, 1, 1, 5, 5, 6, 6, 5, 3, 6, 1)10@3: (5, 1, 1, 6, 6, 1, 3, 3, 6, 4)5@4: (5, 4, 1, 4, 2)
DefendRolls: 79@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 3679@2: (2, 6, 5, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 6, 1, 1, 5, 3, 1, 5, 1, 2, 6, 6, 1, 6, 3, 4, 5, 1, 2, 2, 1, 5, 4, 3, 5, 2, 3, 5, 4, 4, 6, 5, 4, 6, 5, 2, 3, 6, 1, 3, 1, 6, 3, 2, 5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 5, 3, 2, 3, 5, 5, 2, 3, 3, 1, 1, 6, 1, 6, 1, 3, 5, 1, 6)12@3: (5, 1, 2, 1, 6, 1, 5, 3, 6, 5, 2, 6)2@4: (3, 5)

[corriganbp]

didn’t get any better there

[corriganbp]

40% of your shots at 2 hit that time.

[corriganbp]

and so a battle where I had 90% odds and should have come out 100 ipcs ahead,
by the third round has me down to 30% odds and 72 ipcs more in damage than expected.

I’m pretty sure that’s a 1 in 100 type of victory for you.

At this point, if we play it out it’s just to see how long it takes you to capture the capitals.

[corriganbp]

CRD in 105Rolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 01@3: (4)

[corriganbp]

I’d say it’s over.

Germany Winter 43-44.AAM

[corriganbp]

109 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 2 aa 74 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 80@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 5180@1: (6, 1, 2, 4, 2, 4, 1, 3, 3, 3, 4, 2, 6, 1, 2, 1, 3, 5, 1, 4, 3, 4, 4, 6, 4, 1, 5, 3, 4, 4, 1, 3, 5, 3, 6, 1, 6, 1, 3, 3, 4, 1, 5, 3, 2, 6, 3, 4, 4, 4, 2, 1, 1, 5, 6, 5, 6, 4, 1, 4, 2, 1, 6, 1, 4, 6, 2, 3, 1, 5, 5, 4, 5, 4, 1, 1, 3, 4, 4, 1)62@2: (2, 6, 2, 3, 4, 1, 1, 4, 5, 2, 1, 6, 2, 1, 1, 6, 6, 2, 2, 1, 6, 1, 5, 5, 4, 6, 6, 1, 3, 3, 2, 4, 2, 3, 6, 6, 3, 1, 4, 2, 2, 4, 1, 4, 4, 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 4, 4, 4)10@3: (2, 6, 6, 2, 6, 3, 2, 3, 4, 4)5@4: (6, 5, 1, 4, 6)
DefendRolls: 121@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 55121@2: (4, 1, 3, 1, 5, 6, 6, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 6, 6, 2, 2, 6, 2, 4, 6, 4, 6, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 4, 5, 1, 1, 6, 4, 2, 5, 4, 1, 6, 5, 2, 2, 1, 6, 2, 1, 1, 4, 1, 2, 1, 6, 6, 6, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 5, 2, 2, 5, 2, 6, 6, 6, 3, 1, 6, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 2, 6, 4, 3, 6, 3, 3, 5, 4, 4, 1, 1, 5, 6, 2, 1, 5, 4, 6, 5, 3, 3, 5, 3, 4, 1, 3, 6, 2, 5, 2, 3, 5, 6, 6, 4, 3, 3, 3, 1, 6, 3, 1, 5)12@3: (2, 3, 5, 6, 6, 5, 4, 3, 1, 3, 5, 4)2@4: (3, 2)

[corriganbp]

still not good but not crazily bad.

[corriganbp]

54 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 25 inf 9 mech 38 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 25@1 62@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 3625@1: (6, 1, 4, 6, 6, 5, 3, 2, 3, 4, 3, 2, 4, 2, 1, 6, 5, 5, 3, 1, 1, 4, 5, 6, 4)62@2: (1, 2, 5, 3, 4, 3, 2, 4, 1, 2, 4, 5, 5, 6, 2, 3, 2, 3, 6, 4, 4, 6, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 6, 1, 2, 4, 2, 4, 2, 4, 2, 5, 6, 6, 5, 1, 3, 4, 5, 2, 5, 1, 4, 2, 1, 1, 5, 6, 3, 1, 2, 5, 3, 2, 5, 5, 5)10@3: (6, 2, 1, 4, 4, 5, 3, 3, 4, 4)5@4: (5, 1, 2, 1, 5)
DefendRolls: 72@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 3372@2: (3, 4, 1, 4, 5, 5, 4, 1, 6, 5, 5, 2, 1, 4, 1, 5, 4, 3, 5, 1, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1, 6, 1, 2, 2, 2, 6, 5, 6, 6, 2, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4, 3, 6, 4, 1, 1, 2, 4, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 1, 4, 5, 1, 5, 6, 2, 6, 6, 1, 5, 6, 2, 3, 5, 6, 1, 3, 4)12@3: (4, 3, 1, 4, 3, 2, 1, 5, 3, 5, 1, 1)2@4: (6, 4)

[corriganbp]

I’d still say this is going your way, but it’s at least reasonable.

[corriganbp]

21 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 36 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 54@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2554@2: (3, 3, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1, 6, 5, 1, 4, 2, 3, 4, 6, 5, 3, 6, 5, 2, 4, 3, 1, 5, 2, 2, 6, 5, 4, 6, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 4, 4, 5, 4, 1, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 3, 3, 2, 5)10@3: (4, 1, 1, 6, 1, 5, 3, 1, 1, 4)5@4: (2, 3, 1, 1, 2)
DefendRolls: 36@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 1636@2: (4, 4, 6, 1, 5, 6, 1, 4, 5, 5, 5, 3, 1, 2, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 4, 2, 6, 4, 5, 1, 1, 5, 1, 3, 3, 5, 3, 4, 4)12@3: (2, 4, 1, 6, 2, 6, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 6)2@4: (5, 6)

[corriganbp]

5 inf 2 mech 31 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 11 art 11 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 38@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2038@2: (1, 2, 6, 6, 6, 1, 4, 5, 1, 1, 2, 6, 2, 3, 5, 5, 3, 2, 6, 5, 1, 2, 1, 5, 1, 2, 6, 6, 6, 5, 3, 6, 1, 3, 6, 6, 4, 3)10@3: (5, 4, 4, 6, 4, 6, 3, 2, 4, 6)5@4: (4, 4, 4, 4, 5)
DefendRolls: 11@2 12@3 2@4; Total Hits: 811@2: (5, 2, 6, 6, 1, 5, 6, 6, 2, 5, 6)12@3: (4, 5, 6, 2, 1, 4, 5, 5, 3, 3, 4, 6)2@4: (5, 2)

[corriganbp]

30 art 9 tank 1 ftr 3 tacs 2 bmbs vs. 2 tanks 2 ftrs 1 tac

AttackRolls: 30@2 10@3 5@4; Total Hits: 2430@2: (1, 5, 5, 1, 4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 4, 6, 2, 5, 6, 1, 2, 1, 3, 4, 1, 1, 5, 4, 2, 2, 3, 6, 3, 1, 1)10@3: (3, 1, 5, 1, 2, 3, 3, 6, 1, 1)5@4: (3, 6, 2, 2, 6)
DefendRolls: 2@3 2@4; Total Hits: 12@3: (3, 4)2@4: (6, 5)

[Noll]

I’m sorry Corrigan but this time I’m going to tell you something.

45% hit ratio and 40% hit ratio on a 33% expected result is not luck.

33% is the average expected result.

This means the result can vary from 20% to 50% and this still can’t be considered luck.

A result of a 66%+ hit ratio on an expected hit of 33% could be considered luck.

That’s why in Axis and Allies you need overwhelming forces to conduct a battle that big. And you didn’t had overwhelming forces. In fact the fight guaranteed a win for you with few units surviving (and for few I mean that 20 to 30 units in a battle of this scale are indeed few).

In round#1 you hitted 15times with @1 out of 80, that’s 3 more, so that’s a 40/45% too.

I know if I where Germany I wouldn’t have attacked that stack. (Although it was juicy, but that’s only because I didn’t notice the 3tac.bombers).

Still, remember the battle calculators are not gold. A battle with 300 units involved shouldn’t change from 67% to 90% with 3 more units.

And I’m sad you made that attack, 'cause the game was interesting, and I hate games where you decide everything in 1 battle (like the multi games where Jim tried Russia rush or Anzac rush)

5inf hitted 3 times my bombers.

5inf are expected to hit 1,66 times, they hitted double their expected chance. That’s luck

Then the round after 2 inf hitted 1 time the surviving bomber.

2 inf are expected to hit 0,66, still they hit 1 (+33%), that’s, again, luck, but nobody complained.

[corriganbp]

Taken with 29 arts and 9 tanks, pretty close to expected and basically what I needed.

[Noll]

@corriganbp:

Taken with 29 arts and 9 tanks, pretty close to expected and basically what I needed.

and you where lucky, hitted more than average, and still typed that the fight was on my side.

[corriganbp]

you have to consider the law of large numbers, 45% hits with 2 is exceptionally strange when you are rolling that number of dice.

[Noll]

It can still happen, and it can happen on either side. Actually on a large battle like that a +7% is not that crazy.

Anyway, did you like this module?