I sadly have only gotten a few games of AAP40 in. I would love to test my mettle repeatedly against the Japanese and see if I can solve the puzzle of the J1 attack, but I am lacking in both willing and skilled opponents and time (I have a 2 year old and a 2 week old). So these days my AA experience is limited to surfing these boards. :-(
My concern with the US immediate 40 balance option is that while it seems to balance a J1 attack well (according to others here) I expect that it will imbalance the J2 and J3 attack options in favor of the allies, so there is still no reason for the Japanese to choose other than J1 attack.
I would like to find another organic balance option (I appreciate the necessity of bid-type balancing, but dislike the feel of it). Here’s my suggestion for an alternate balance option. I have no reason to believe that it will work other than a gut feeling and a bit of logic. I offer it in the hope that some of you lucky souls with the opportunity to play regularly will give it a shot and let everyone know if it works. Here it is:
Add USSR to the game, moving after ANZAC. Populate USSR with its expected global forces, 2 infantry per territory. Additionally, give USSR a fighter and a Major IC in Evenkiyskiy. USSR starts with no money. USSR cannot move or collect income until Japan declares war (effectively, USSR joins the war when the US does), at which point USSR begins collecting income (the assumption being that before DOW, all income goes to Europe). Japan can choose to attack the USSR at any point by declaring war in the same way that it can attack US, UK, or ANZAC.
Here’s my thinking on this.
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The J1 attack is very much a blitzkreig. It is a race to grab a quick objective (India, and to a lesser extent, the bulk of China) almost entirely conducted with units already on the board. J2 and J3 attacks are more about establishing and solidifying a strong position and then striking out from there. New production and units in reserve are much more relevant to future attacks. The Russian units will force Japan to defend Manchuria and Korea once a general declaration of war has been issued. In a J1 attack, this forces Japan to hold back front line units in Asia (or divert transport power from taking DEI and PI. In a J2 or J3 attack, Manchurian and Korean units can be used to attack China and defensive troops can be brought over from Japan or from a new IC on board. The result of this is that Russia can pin a significant portion of Japan’s mainland troop strength (or punish them for moving them), causing Japan to either: a) deemphasize China to continue the India Crush, b) engage in a more balanced attack against India and China, c) abandon northeast Asia, or d) abandon DEI. a) means that China will be a significant power for longer into the game, b) strikes me as the best option, and gives India time to muster a defense and other countries time to come to their rescue, c) and d) result in several turns of reduced income for Japan.
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In addition to threatening Manchuria and Korea, after declaration of war, USSR can send troops to directly bolster China’s defence, again giving Japan incentive to deal with China more completely before taking on other powers (pushing towards a J2, J3 DOW).
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Since USSR doesn’t collect income until DOW, this is another 9IPC per turn incentive towards waiting.
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Given the USSR’s force composition (almost entirely infantry), low income (reducing the number of attack specialized units it can produce) and distance of the factory from the front, it will be a long time before USSR can begin significant offensive operations. Thus, USSR’s primary functions will be defense (both of USSR territories and bolstering Chinese troops) and “keeping the Japanese honest” by forcing them to actually defend their northern border.
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Overall, the additional forces would seem to be a disadvantage to Japan, and it is in the short term. But, in the long term, the addition of USSR as an opponent is also an opportunity for Japan, as it represents 9IPCs per turn of additional income once conquered. If Japan does decide to actively engage the Russians, they have a thick crust, but little to follow up, so this should be a viable option.
Overall, I believe that this change would result in a significant bonus to the Allies against a J1 attack, and a much smaller advantage against later attacks, pushing the Japanese into less of a race and more of an empire building situation. I expect that a J2 or J3 attack would become the ideal then, and this would also result in a better balance of allied power (USA weaker, UK and ANZAC stronger) later in the game, making a more enjoyable experience for all.
Thoughts?