VF (Germany) vs. Ragnell (Allies) | Original Europe with TGC balance, Game 8


  • @Ragnell804

    TGC balance includes (at the moment)

    • No Special Cash Advance (SCA) for Germany
    • One German sub from Bay of Biscay removed from starting setup.

    Allied bid: two inf in Ukraine and two inf in Malta.


  • TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 1

    TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved

    Game History

    Round: 1
    
        Purchase Units - Germans
            Germans buy 13 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - Germans
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Bay of Biscay Sea Zone: 1 submarine
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            1 submarine moved from Denmark Strait Sea Zone to British Convoy 4 Sea Zone
                  Germans take British Convoy 4 Sea Zone from British
            1 submarine moved from British Convoy 4 Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from Mid-Atlantic Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from Halifax Sea Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from Azores Sea Sea Zone to British Convoy 3 Sea Zone
                  Germans take British Convoy 3 Sea Zone from British
            1 submarine moved from British Convoy 3 Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from Bay of Biscay Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 battleship and 1 destroyer moved from Tyrrhenian Sea Sea Zone to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from Germany to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Denmark to Danish Sea Sea Zone
            1 artillery moved from Germany to Danish Sea Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Baltic Sea Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Baltic Sea Sea Zone to Baltic States
            3 infantry moved from Poland to Baltic States
            1 armour moved from Poland to Baltic States
            1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Poland to East Poland
            1 armour moved from Poland to East Poland
            1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Hungary to Bessarabia
            1 armour moved from Germany to East Poland
            1 armour moved from Germany to East Poland
            1 fighter moved from Norway to North Sea Sea Zone
            2 submarines moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to North Sea Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from Barents Sea Sea Zone to North Sea Sea Zone
            1 armour and 3 infantry moved from Rumania to Ukraine S.S.R.
            1 armour moved from Hungary to Ukraine S.S.R.
            1 fighter moved from Poland to Ukraine S.S.R.
            2 fighters moved from Germany to Ukraine S.S.R.
            1 fighter moved from Northern Italy to Ukraine S.S.R.
            1 fighter moved from France to North Sea Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Tyrrhenian Sea Sea Zone
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Tyrrhenian Sea Sea Zone to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone to Gibraltar
    
        Combat - Germans
            Battle in Davis Strait Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 3 submarines
                British defend with 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                    Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 transport in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the British and 1 transport owned by the British lost in Davis Strait Sea Zone
                Germans win with 3 submarines remaining. Battle score for attacker is 20
                Casualties for British: 1 destroyer and 1 transport
            Battle in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 1 bomber and 3 submarines
                British defend with 1 destroyer and 2 transports
                    Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 bomber in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer and 2 transports in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                    2 transports owned by the British lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                    Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 2/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the British lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                Germans win with 1 bomber and 3 submarines remaining. Battle score for attacker is 28
                Casualties for British: 1 destroyer and 2 transports
            Battle in Bessarabia
                Germans attack with 1 artillery and 3 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 armour and 1 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Bessarabia, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 armour and 1 infantry in Bessarabia, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Bessarabia
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Bessarabia
                    Germans roll dice for 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Bessarabia, round 3 : 0/3 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 armour in Bessarabia, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Bessarabia, round 4 : 0/3 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 armour in Bessarabia, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Bessarabia
                    Germans roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Bessarabia, round 5 : 1/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 armour in Bessarabia, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Bessarabia
                    1 armour owned by the Russians lost in Bessarabia
                Germans win, taking Bessarabia from Russians with 1 artillery remaining. Battle score for attacker is -1
                Casualties for Germans: 3 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 1 armour and 1 infantry
            Battle in East Poland
                Germans attack with 3 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry
                Russians defend with 4 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 3 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 4/7 hits, 2,50 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 4 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1,33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in East Poland
                    4 infantry owned by the Russians lost in East Poland
                Germans win, taking East Poland from Russians with 3 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 9
                Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 4 infantry
            Battle in Ukraine S.S.R.
                Germans attack with 2 armour, 4 fighters and 3 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 artillery and 6 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 2 armour, 4 fighters and 3 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 1/9 hits, 3,50 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 artillery and 6 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 2/7 hits, 2,33 expected hits
                    2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                    Germans roll dice for 2 armour, 4 fighters and 1 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 3 : 4/7 hits, 3,17 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 artillery and 5 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 3 : 2/6 hits, 2,00 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans and 1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                    4 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 4 fighters in Ukraine S.S.R., round 4 : 3/5 hits, 2,50 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 4 : 2/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    1 fighter owned by the Germans and 1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 artillery owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                Germans win with 3 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is -9
                Casualties for Germans: 2 armour, 1 fighter and 3 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 1 artillery and 6 infantry
            Battle in Baltic States
                Germans attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 4 infantry
                Russians defend with 3 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 4 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 3/6 hits, 1,67 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 3 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                    2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States
                    3 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Baltic States
                Germans win, taking Baltic States from Russians with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Germans: 2 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 3 infantry
            Battle in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                British defend with 1 destroyer
                    Germans roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the British lost in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
                Germans win with 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12
                Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
            Battle in North Sea Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 2 fighters and 3 submarines
                British defend with 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                    Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the British
                    Germans roll dice for 2 fighters in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1,33 expected hits
                    2 submarines owned by the Germans lost in North Sea Sea Zone
                    1 transport owned by the British lost in North Sea Sea Zone
                    Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in North Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 2 fighters in North Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 2/2 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 destroyer in North Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the British and 1 battleship owned by the British lost in North Sea Sea Zone
                Germans win with 2 fighters and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 28
                Casualties for Germans: 2 submarines
                Casualties for British: 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport
            Battle in Gibraltar
    
        Non Combat Move - Germans
            2 infantry moved from Bulgaria to Rumania
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Czechoslovakia to Poland
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Austria to Hungary
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia
            1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Greece to Yugoslavia
            2 infantry moved from Southern Italy to Northern Italy
            1 aaGun moved from Northern Italy to Austria
            1 artillery and 4 infantry moved from Germany to Poland
            1 aaGun moved from Germany to Poland
            2 armour and 3 infantry moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany
            2 armour moved from Germany to Poland
            4 infantry moved from Eastern France to Germany
            2 armour moved from France to Germany
            1 infantry moved from France to Eastern France
            1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from France to Netherlands-Belgium
            4 infantry moved from Norway to Finland
            2 fighters moved from North Sea Sea Zone to Finland
            1 fighter moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Rumania
            1 fighter moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Rumania
            1 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Northern Italy
            1 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Hungary
            1 bomber moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to Germany
            1 fighter moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Rumania
            1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Tunisia to Algeria
            1 infantry moved from Morocco to Algeria
    
        Place Units - Germans
            13 infantry placed in Germany
    
        Turn Complete - Germans
            Germans collect 42 PUs; end with 43 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Russians regular : 3,00
    Germans regular : 4,17
    British regular : -3,00
    

    Savegame


  • @Ragnell804

    I’d say that was a pretty good G1. The difference between the German and Allied TUV is not super big even though the Germans lost 20 TUV strength from the balance. Without the balance, this would be a slightly below average G1. I can probably calculate the net pieces for both sides like TGC always does once I can find the time.


  • My guess the odds for Moscow are going to be around 80%. The EF was okay-ish for both sides but the Atlantic went very much in Germany’s favor.


  • @VictoryFirst

    Game History

    Round: 1
    
        Purchase Units - Russians
            Russians buy 8 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - Russians
            2 infantry moved from Leningrad to Baltic States
            1 infantry moved from Belorussia to Baltic States
            3 infantry moved from Belorussia to East Poland
            1 bomber moved from Moscow to East Poland
            1 fighter moved from Moscow to Baltic States
            1 artillery moved from Belorussia to East Poland
    
        Combat - Russians
            Battle in East Poland
                Russians attack with 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 3 infantry
                Germans defend with 3 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 3 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 0/5 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 3 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 0/6 hits, 2.00 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 3 infantry in East Poland, round 3 : 2/5 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 3 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry in East Poland, round 3 : 2/6 hits, 2.00 expected hits
                    2 infantry owned by the Russians lost in East Poland
                    2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in East Poland
                    Russians roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 1 infantry in East Poland, round 4 : 1/3 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 3 armour and 1 artillery in East Poland, round 4 : 1/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in East Poland
                    1 artillery owned by the Germans lost in East Poland
                1 bomber owned by the Russians retreated
                1 artillery owned by the Russians retreated to Belorussia
                Germans win with 3 armour remaining. Battle score for attacker is 1
                Casualties for Russians: 3 infantry
                Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery and 2 infantry
            Battle in Baltic States
                Russians attack with 1 fighter and 3 infantry
                Germans defend with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 3 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Baltic States
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Baltic States, round 3 : 0/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 3 : 0/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Baltic States, round 4 : 2/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 4 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Baltic States
                    1 artillery owned by the Germans and 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States
                1 fighter owned by the Russians retreated
                1 infantry owned by the Russians retreated to Belorussia
                Germans win with 1 armour remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
                Casualties for Russians: 2 infantry
                Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery and 2 infantry
    
        Non Combat Move - Russians
            1 infantry moved from Vyborg to Leningrad
            2 infantry moved from Karelia to Leningrad
            1 artillery and 4 infantry moved from Russia to Leningrad
            1 infantry moved from Archangel to Karelia
            1 aaGun, 1 armour and 2 infantry moved from Archangel to Russia
            1 armour moved from Russia to Leningrad
            1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Siberia to Russia
            1 armour moved from Russia to Leningrad
            1 aaGun, 1 armour and 4 infantry moved from Moscow to Belorussia
            1 armour moved from Belorussia to Leningrad
            1 armour and 3 infantry moved from Turkestan to Belorussia
            1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Stalingrad to Belorussia
            1 armour moved from Caucasus to Belorussia
            1 infantry moved from Caucasus to Ukraine S.S.R.
            1 bomber moved from East Poland to Belorussia
            1 fighter moved from Baltic States to Leningrad
            1 infantry moved from Iran to Caucasus
            2 infantry moved from Caucasus to Stalingrad
            1 transport moved from White Sea Sea Zone to North Atlantic Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from White Sea Sea Zone to Norwegian Sea Sea Zone
    
        Place Units - Russians
            8 infantry placed in Leningrad
    
        Turn Complete - Russians
            Russians collect 22 PUs; end with 22 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Germans regular : -3.67
    Russians regular : -1.33
    

  • @VictoryFirst

    Game History

    Round: 1
    
        Purchase Units - British
            British buy 2 destroyers; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - British
            1 destroyer moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 bomber and 2 fighters moved from United Kingdom to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 transport moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from Malta to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Libya
                  British take Libya from Germans
    
        Combat - British
            Battle in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                British attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 2 fighters
                Germans defend with 3 submarines
                    British roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 2 fighters in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 3/4 hits, 2.17 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                    3 submarines owned by the Germans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                British win with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 24
                Casualties for Germans: 3 submarines
    
        Non Combat Move - British
            1 fighter moved from Malta to Syria
            1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Egypt to Libya
            1 infantry moved from Iraq to Iran
            1 infantry moved from Syria to Iran
            1 infantry moved from Palestine to Syria
            1 bomber and 2 fighters moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom
    
        Place Units - British
            2 destroyers placed in Davis Strait Sea Zone
    
        Turn Complete - British
            British collect 16 PUs; end with 17 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Germans regular : -1.00
    British regular : 0.83
    

  • @VictoryFirst

    4b290c7b-b083-4d8a-99d4-8f9edc728da4-image.png

    dd, ftr [dice 2d6<=3]
    bomber [dice 1d6<=4]


  • 2d6<=3: 6, 1; Hits: 1
    1d6<=4: 4; Hits: 1


  • @Ragnell804

    subs [dice 2d6<=2]


  • 2d6<=2: 5, 4; Hits: 0


  • @VictoryFirst

    Game History

    Round: 1
    
        Purchase Units - Americans
            Americans buy 2 artilleries, 2 destroyers and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - Americans
            1 destroyer moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone
            1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from United States to Davis Strait Sea Zone
    
        Combat - Americans
            Battle in Davis Strait Sea Zone
                British loiter and taunt; Americans attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter
                Germans defend with 3 submarines
                    Americans roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the Americans lost in Davis Strait Sea Zone
                    2 submarines owned by the Germans lost in Davis Strait Sea Zone
                Germans and Americans reach a stalemate
                . Battle score for attacker is 4
                Casualties for Americans: 1 destroyer
                Casualties for Germans: 2 submarines
    
        Non Combat Move - Americans
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Americans to Davis Strait Sea Zone: 1 destroyer
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            1 bomber moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to United Kingdom
            1 fighter moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to Iceland
    
        Place Units - Americans
            2 destroyers and 1 transport placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
            2 artilleries placed in United States
    
        Turn Complete - Americans
            Americans collect 40 PUs; end with 40 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Americans regular : 0.33
    Germans regular : 0.00
    

    Allies 1.tsvg


  • @The_Good_Captain

    I am a bit confused how you calculate the net German pieces. Do you just look at Units Left If Att/Def Won and always look at it from the attacker’s perspective? Do you look at Average Units Left if the attacker retreated after X rounds of combat? Do you look at it from both perspectives in those cases or only from the attacker’s one?

    Anyway here is what I calculated for G1 and Allied1

    After G1
    Atlantic/Med: +2.68
    Eastern Front: -4.08
    Total: -1.4

    After Allied1
    EF:- 4.67
    Altantic/Med: 1.07
    Total: -3.60

    Do you get the same results when you calculate it? (I set the run count to only 5000 so I will have some decimals off here and there)


  • @Ragnell804

    But anyways if those numbers are correct than this G1 was worse than I thought. If this game is balanced right now then the odds on Moscow should be below 50%, but I don’t feel that way. I think it will be slightly above just by looking at the TUV difference after G1 (which is my method of guessing the final odds on Moscow).


  • TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 2

    TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved

    Game History

    Round: 2
    
        Purchase Units - Germans
            Germans buy 14 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - Germans
            1 infantry moved from Finland to Karelia
            2 fighters moved from Finland to Karelia
            1 submarine moved from North Sea Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from Germany to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
                  Germans take U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone from Americans
            1 battleship and 1 destroyer moved from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from Rumania to Ukraine S.S.R.
            3 fighters moved from Rumania to Ukraine S.S.R.
    
        Combat - Germans
            Battle in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 1 bomber and 1 submarine
                British defend with 1 destroyer
                    Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 bomber in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the British lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                Germans win with 1 bomber and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12
                Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
            Battle in Karelia
                Germans attack with 2 fighters and 1 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 2 fighters and 1 infantry in Karelia, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Karelia, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Karelia
                2 fighters owned by the Germans retreated
                Russians win with 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -3
                Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
            Battle in Ukraine S.S.R.
                Germans attack with 3 fighters and 2 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 3 fighters and 2 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 3/5 hits, 1,83 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                Germans win, taking Ukraine S.S.R. from Russians with 3 fighters and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 1 battleship and 1 destroyer
                British defend with 1 transport
                    Germans roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 destroyer in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 transport in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
                    1 transport owned by the British lost in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
                Germans win with 1 battleship and 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
                Casualties for British: 1 transport
    
        Non Combat Move - Germans
            1 infantry moved from Gibraltar to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Hungary to Bessarabia
            2 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Hungary
            2 armour moved from Northern Italy to Hungary
            3 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia
            3 armour moved from East Poland to Hungary
            2 armour moved from Poland to Hungary
            1 armour moved from Baltic States to Hungary
            2 armour moved from Germany to Hungary
            1 infantry moved from Poland to Baltic States
            1 infantry moved from Poland to East Poland
            20 infantry moved from Germany to Poland
            3 fighters moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Germany
            1 transport moved from Baltic Sea Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Danish Sea Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Baltic Sea Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Baltic Sea Sea Zone to Poland
            2 fighters moved from Karelia to Finland
            1 bomber moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to Germany
            2 infantry moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Southern Italy
            1 aaGun moved from Austria to Germany
    
        Place Units - Germans
            14 infantry placed in Germany
    
        Turn Complete - Germans
            Germans collect 43 PUs; end with 44 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Russians regular : 0,33
    Germans regular : 0,50
    British regular : -1,17
    

    Savegame


  • @VictoryFirst
    yeah youre on the right track. I align the battle calculator to what actually happened. So if someone fought two rounds on the east front and retreated, I set the calc to a two round strafe and in that case compare average pieces left over for both sides.

    In a battle that is 92% attacker win and the attacker wins, I go off average attacker pieces left.

    In a battle that is 92% and the attacker loses, I go off average pieces left over for both sides.

    I’ll make a short video critique of this first turn and demonstrate how I do the calculations at the same time if I can find some time tomorrow.


  • @VictoryFirst

    Game History

    Round: 2
    
        Purchase Units - Russians
            Russians buy 7 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - Russians
            1 infantry moved from Caucasus to Ukraine S.S.R.
            1 infantry moved from Stalingrad to Ukraine S.S.R.
            1 bomber moved from Belorussia to Ukraine S.S.R.
            2 infantry moved from Leningrad to Baltic States
            1 fighter moved from Leningrad to Baltic States
            1 infantry moved from Stalingrad to Ukraine S.S.R.
    
        Combat - Russians
            Battle in Ukraine S.S.R.
                Russians attack with 1 bomber and 3 infantry
                Germans defend with 2 infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 1 bomber and 3 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 2 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                    2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
                Russians win, taking Ukraine S.S.R. from Germans with 1 bomber and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
                Casualties for Germans: 2 infantry
            Battle in Baltic States
                Russians attack with 1 fighter and 2 infantry
                Germans defend with 1 infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Baltic States, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States
                Russians win, taking Baltic States from Germans with 1 fighter and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
    
        Non Combat Move - Russians
            1 fighter moved from Baltic States to Leningrad
            1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Russia to Belorussia
            1 bomber moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Leningrad
            13 infantry moved from Leningrad to Belorussia
            2 armour moved from Belorussia to Leningrad
            1 artillery moved from Leningrad to Belorussia
            1 aaGun moved from Russia to Moscow
            1 submarine moved from Norwegian Sea Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
            1 transport moved from North Atlantic Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone
    
        Place Units - Russians
            7 infantry placed in Leningrad
    
        Turn Complete - Russians
            Russians collect 23 PUs; end with 24 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Germans regular : -0.33
    Russians regular : 0.17
    

  • @VictoryFirst

    Game History

    Round: 2
    
        Purchase Units - British
            British buy 2 transports; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - British
            1 bomber moved from United Kingdom to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Syria to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to British Convoy 4 Sea Zone
                  British take British Convoy 4 Sea Zone from Germans
            1 destroyer moved from British Convoy 4 Sea Zone to Halifax Sea Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            2 fighters moved from United Kingdom to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
    
        Combat - British
            Battle in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
                British attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter
                Germans defend with 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                    British roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 3/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the Germans
                    Germans roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the British and 1 fighter owned by the British lost in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
                    1 destroyer owned by the Germans and 1 transport owned by the Germans lost in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
                    British roll dice for 1 bomber in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 battleship in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                    1 bomber owned by the British lost in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
                    1 battleship owned by the Germans lost in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
                Germans win with no units remaining. Battle score for attacker is 5
                Casualties for British: 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter
                Casualties for Germans: 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport
            Battle in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                British attack with 1 destroyer and 2 fighters
                Germans defend with 1 submarine
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer and 2 fighters in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.50 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the British lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                    1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                British win with 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is -4
                Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
                Casualties for Germans: 1 submarine
    
        Non Combat Move - British
            2 fighters moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom
    
        Place Units - British
            1 transport placed in Davis Strait Sea Zone
            1 transport placed in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Changing ownership of Tunisia from Germans to British
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Adding units owned by British to Caucasus: 2 infantry
            EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Iran: 1 infantry
            EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Syria: 1 infantry
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
    
        Turn Complete - British
            British collect 22 PUs; end with 23 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Germans regular : 1.67
    British regular : 2.17
    

  • @The_Good_Captain

    Game History

    Round: 2
    
        Purchase Units - Americans
            Americans buy 1 destroyer, 4 infantry and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - Americans
            1 destroyer moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to British Convoy 3 Sea Zone
                  British take British Convoy 3 Sea Zone from Germans
            1 bomber moved from United Kingdom to U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to South Atlantic Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Morocco
                  Americans take Morocco from Germans
    
        Combat - Americans
            Battle in U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
                Americans attack with 1 bomber and 1 destroyer
                Germans defend with 1 submarine
                    Americans roll dice for 1 bomber and 1 destroyer in U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the Americans lost in U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
                    1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
                Americans win with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is -4
                Casualties for Americans: 1 destroyer
                Casualties for Germans: 1 submarine
    
        Non Combat Move - Americans
            1 destroyer moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone to United Kingdom
            1 fighter moved from Iceland to United Kingdom
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom
    
        Place Units - Americans
            1 destroyer and 2 transports placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
            4 infantry placed in United States
    
        Turn Complete - Americans
            Americans collect 35 PUs; end with 35 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Americans regular : -0.17
    Germans regular : 0.67
    

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