Bunnies, I feel that we are dancing around several different issues so I will try to address each one.
**You are the dancing queen, young and sweet, only seventeen
Dancing queen, feel the beat from the tambourine
You can dance, you can jive, having the time of your life
See that girl, watch that scene, dig in the dancing queen.
A dress, huh? What else are you wearing? hehehehe**
Anglo: Clearly this is a sore spot for Germany, and a crucial element of any strategy. Taking Africa is essential, it’s free IPCs for you and less for UK once you get past Anglo. Unfortunately I’m not seeing how this strategy is working out very well if you send in the BB + tran with another 1 inf and tank. Realistically, you should expect to end that battle with 3 tank and 1 inf on Anglo. The UK counters with the Fighter, Bomber, and 3 infantry. Best Germany can hope for without just hoping for good dice ( a bad strategy :-P) is to kill all the infantry and stop the UK from getting the land. But then you just lost 3 tanks, and one of those was one of your “valuable valuable tanks from Europe”. Now if you want to do any blitzing you’ll have to rebuild at least one.
**First off, it is not “valuable valuable tanks from Europe”. It is “valuable valuable tanks PERIOD”. German tanks are reaaaal good, and if the G1 tanks in Anglo-Egypt survived UK1, I move them back on G4 (G2 blitz, G3 return, G4 transport).
Assuming an Africa bid and Med fleet going east, the odds are good that at least German: 1 inf 3 tank survive in Anglo-Egypt, which leads to UK1 counter 3 inf 1 fig 1 bomber possibility. But, there IS the expensive and nasty possibility of less than German: 1 inf 3 tank surviving opening the door for a UK1 counter. So Germany should probably actually take the artillery from S. Europe instead of a third tank. There’s still something like a 80% chance of 4 German units in Anglo-Egypt at end of G1, with the important 2 German tanks for blitzing, if Germany uses a fighter and bomber in Anglo-Egypt. Of course, if Russia took out Ukraine, then there won’t be a safety fighter for the Anglo-Egypt naval battle which opens up a nasty can of worms 1/12 of the time (I think it was). Maybe a bit more than that, actually.
Anyways, with 4 German units on beginning of G1, UK has counter 3 inf 1 fig 1 bomber, with the really nice payoff of delaying German progress in Africa as described in my previous post. But if there’s a German fighter and bomber parked in Libya, then what? Well, I’ll tell you; I think it’s about a 40% chance that the UK loses at least one air in the process of a 1 bomber-1 fighter-3infantry clearing 4 units at Anglo-Egypt, and if an air does bite it, it has to be the UK bomber (if the UK fighter bites it, the UK bomber has to land in a territory adjacent to Anglo-Egypt which means the UK bomber dies G2.)
So. You are QUITE RIGHT in saying that UK can still counter and often does. Very right - and yet, I think it is STILL a worthy German attack to hit Anglo-Egypt with 3 inf 1 art 2 tank 1 fighter 1 bomber, particularly if there’s a safety fighter for the Anglo-Egypt battle.
Why?
Consider first the vast IPC differential between a UK1 clear of German-held Anglo-Egypt and UK leaving Anglo-Egypt alone on UK1 (as outlined in my previous post). Consider then that going into the attack, Germany has a 30% plus expectation of UK dropping its bomber in the battle (80% chance of Germany holding with 4 or more units followed by 40% chance of UK needing to drop at least one air unit to clear out Anglo-Egypt.). Then consider that Germany built no defense for the Baltic fleet (I typically go heavy inf/art purchase on G1 instead of fighters, but this still holds), and that if UK does send the UK bomber to Africa, the Baltic fleet is relatively safe against a UK attack of just 2 fighters, so will be able to either split, channel dash, or stay put to give Germany some added momentum into Karelia on G2 (since it survives UK1).
Contrast with the expected 2 German ground units in Anglo-Egypt at end of UK1 which can be counter/cleared with 3 inf 1 fighter with at least 1 UK fighter surviving 60% or so of the time, leaving the UK bomber free to fly east to mess with Japan if the UK unites its fleet, or harass Japan shipping if the UK splits its fleet, or to strafe the Baltic fleet with 2 UK fighters (Germany of course doesn’t know what UK is going to do yet - but in any event that UK bomber is going to be useful.)**
Also if you really want an IC in India on J2 it’s not that hard to manage. The German fighter from Libya can hit Anglo on G2, and land in India on a NCM. How do you feel on the odds of 2 inf + 1 ftr vs 2 inf + ftr + aa gun?
**First, as I said, if UK pulls out of India, they take the AA gun with them.
Second, in MOST games, the UK bomber will also be in range at beginning of UK2. How do you feel about 2 inf 1 ftr 1 bomber vs 2 inf 1 ftr?**
The way it works out, there are few clear-cut definitively “correct” moves in Axis and Allies. If you do one thing, you have to pull forces from another thing.
(edit) - seriously, if you move the UK infantry out of India, why would you NOT move out the AA gun? It’s not like the AA gun is going to stop a Japanese tank blitz to Persia.