OK, not going to be catty…
With Eastern and Ukraine only attacks on R1…
1. I AM going to liberate Eastern and Ukraine, not even a question. I can use German INF for fodder in Eastern, Belo and Balkans for Ukraine.
2. I AM going to take Karelia using Norway forces
3. I am EITHER going to take Moscow using 3 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM West Russia, 1 FIG Balkans and 1 BOM Germany (landing in Belo) -OR- Caucuses using the West Russia force plus an amphib from Southern backed up by Balkans FIG and German BOM.
Considering #3 options:
If you split your FIGs for defense…
Russia will need 6 INF in Moscow to drop the German odds below 50% win; 7 INF and a FIG (plus AA of course) to drop it to 25% (which is where I would probably abort the idea of attacking Moscow.
Caucuses will need 9 INF, 1 FIG, and AA to drop the odds below 50% win; 10 INF to get the odds below 1 in 4 of a German win.
So you need 15-17 INF and BOTH FIGS to hold Moscow and Caucuses reliably. To HAVE both FIGs for defense means you only used the Karelia FIG in Eastern. And THAT means you only have about a 50% chance of even HAVING that FIG to use for defense (if you use both FIGs to increase the odds, the Russia FIG has to land in Karelia and can;t get back to Moscow or Caucuses). But let’s say that the 1 in 2 happens and the Karelia FIG surives the attack on Eastern AND kills the German FIG there.
So where do those 15+ INF come from?
3 Archangel
2 Evenk
2 Novo
2 Kazakh
3 Russia
8 BUILD
So you CAN hold both against the available German forces, if you pull everything that can reach to defend Caucuses and Russia.
Fine, Strategic Withdraw from West Russia and mass all available German forces in Ukraine:
1 INF, 1 ART Southern (via TRN)
1 ARM Southern
2 INF, 1 ARM Balkans
3 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM West Russia
2 INF Belo (one sent to picket WR)
2 ARM Germany
A total of: 8 INF, 2 ART, 5 ARM.
Go ahead Russia, attack that with INF and a FIG or 2, because if you do not, I AM going to either take Caucuses, or move to West Russia the NEXT turn and force you to choose between Moscow and Caucuses… And if I get Caucuses, I will have it for QUITE a while (with Japan air power flown in to help defend it). If I get Moscow on G3, GAME OVER.