Posts made by RisingDragon

I agree that an all out vs Japan can be effective, and I’m sure you’ve had good success with it, but it probably works beat with a coordinated effort by the allies and not just the USA right?  I would think a certain amount of over extension by Japan and/or an inferior or soon to be inferior economic position vs the USA is also important.  Otherwise you need the Japs to delay their response (as you can’t exactly sneak up on them with pacific builds) or make a mistake.  IC placement is also a key factor.  In our case, once i saw you build all pacific i built accordingly immediately for Japan and was confident I could contain USA efforts.  It just seems to me that the turn order for the allies in 41 on the pacific is just really difficult.

Thanks Yoshi, good game!  Would have been nice if the dice had been more even and we could go more rounds.

Strategy wise, if I might comment and get your thoughts too…  While round 1 favored the axis (I agree that every other game one ought to expect to get diced in an opening battle, didn’t happen this time), in my humble opinion there were a few related decisions that cost the Allies the game.

First, while the sub bid and R1 bmb build takes out a few free trannies, given G1 was solid I think the bmb was a risky buy without R1 land units in the bid.  Second, Russia’s difficulties were compounded by the all-Pacific USA1 strategy which made it impossible for the key USA swing power to help out in the crucial Euro theater which was already looking tough by USA1 (and about to get tougher).  Third was the killer z12 UK naval mistake where whether I came out a fighter ahead or behind wouldn’t have mattered as the navy was sunk and the ability to shuck land units delayed (which would not have been a problem had USA naval assets been there to reinforce).  While that was I think a miscalculation mistake, strategically once the USA navy wasn’t in the Atlantic, had the UK navy gone the more conservative Northern route to bolster and take back Karelia (maybe using air to take out the Italian navy) it’s possible the Pacific USA strat would have had time to work.  I think you knew that with my G2 (and G3 though not needed) bmb build and z8 ss move that I was itching to take out the UK navy in z12 as the lack of any Russian land pressure would allow me to trade replaceable air with harder to replace UK navy.  Finally, I think the all Pacific USA1 route is generally speaking pretty risky, as it requires your opponent to make mistakes in order to work out well and in my opinion is easy for a carefully played Japan to defend against.

Of course, with bad dice it may have still ended up the same, but perhaps taken 10 rounds.

I’m sure I over simplified the above, as I don’t have that much experience w AA50 (tried to learn AA50 as quickly as possible through test games I played in the 2011 leagues, of which I made many mistakes).

RD

they go out w bang.  ind twlo 3 inf

ncm
chi-nin 1 ftr
ind-z35 1 ftr
z32-z35 1 ac
z62-z61 fleet
z48-z61 fleet
jpn-kia 1 arm 1 rtl
kwa-kia 2 inf
fuk-kia 1 inf

place
jpn 3 inf 5 ftr

57

11T-championship-RD-vs-Yoshi-03cJ.aam

chi twol

ind
a
Rolls: 4@1 2@2 2@3; Total Hits: 34@1: (4, 1, 4, 4)2@2: (4, 1)2@3: (3, 5)
d
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 33@2: (1, 2, 2)

a
Rolls: 4@1 1@3; Total Hits: 14@1: (1, 5, 4, 2)1@3: (6)
d
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)

shoot i forgot to roll for the second chi inf.  i’ll roll two now to catch up

Rolls: 2@1; Total Hits: 02@1: (4, 5)

a
Rolls: 4@1 1@3; Total Hits: 14@1: (6, 1, 4, 2)1@3: (5)
d
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)

J3
3 inf 5 ftr

-chi 2 inf
nin 2 inf
sik 2 inf
fic 1 ftr
-ind 2 inf 1 rtl
bur 1 inf
mad 2 inf
ngu 2 inf 1 rtl 1 arm
z32 1 ftr

chi
a
Rolls: 4@1 1@3; Total Hits: 04@1: (3, 2, 3, 4)1@3: (4)
d
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)

rough dice

Thanks Yoshi, take the time you need

Yoshi, the Axis definitely had a good opening, I don’t dispute that.  What I was trying to say was that while I don’t disagree with your math, stacking probabilities like that can lead to a misleading picture (as of course multiplying a selected series of odds of less than 100% will make for progressively smaller numbers, especially with the inclusion of one lower odds result).  For example, the Italian loss of fighter was a 6% “bad” odds result in I1.  If I had taken the inverse of your 1% opening G1/J1 math and said it was a 99%-tile outcome, once I multiplied that against the I1 6% I would have a 6% bad outcome for Axis, which obviously doesn’t make any sense…

Maybe looking at the totality of round 1, where the Axis lost two planes, which is within the normal axis planes lost on average, is a more balanced comparison.  The Axis definitely had an edge coming out of round 1 but then again, they were “supposed” to win every battle that they attempted - the difference was merely one of material where they probably had two to three more units at the end than a typical result would have dictated.  I also skipped going after some advantaged battles to increase the probability of success to overwhelming in the ones I tried (notably leaving alone the z56 ships in J1)…precisely because I didn’t want to deal with getting diced on my opening moves.

Anyhow I apologize for the above, as I don’t need to remind a skillful player like yourself about odds.  Let’s see what Russia has in store…game’s not over yet.

never about the dice, right boldfresh, all about the skillz!    :mrgreen:

but seriously, so far it’s just been no disasters for the axis (yet), and slightly better results on the whole…vs really only one bad medium-small battle in trj for allies, and otherwise odds.  it’s not like we’ve seen <1% type battles in this game, they’ve pretty much been all within the range of expected results.  On the whole, axis have definitely fared better thus far.  However, given this is only the beginning of round 3 the odds could still revert to the mean pretty hard so don’t count yoshi out yet!

All right, enough bantering, back into the fuhrerbunker for me.  Still have a war to win out there.

I’m sure he does!  Didn’t get that fearsome reputation for nothing.  Just hoping to spot them coming.

Z12 cleared (russian sub remaining) wlo 1 ss 2 ftr. 
ncm
z12-fra 2 bmb 2 ftr
fra-ita 2 inf
fra-ger 1 inf
pol-epl 5 inf
pol-bst 2 inf
ger-epl 3 arm

place
ger all

46

i figured z12 was worth the risk of losing substantial german air for a potential knock out blow, given the current axis positional advantage and lack of any near term supply routes into russia, and the resulting difficulty uk will have replacing navy (esp w german bmb builds), the freeing up of more inf to go east sooner, and italian naval survival/mediterranean control upside.

well yoshi, barring an axis pacific naval disaster, you’ve certainly got your work cut out for you now.

11T-championship-RD-vs-Yoshi-03aG.aam

a
Rolls: 3@3 2@4; Total Hits: 33@3: (2, 3, 2)2@4: (6, 5)
d
Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 11@4: (3)

trj twlo 2 inf

z12
d
Rolls: 2@2 3@4; Total Hits: 22@2: (5, 6)3@4: (3, 1, 5)

TRJ
a
Rolls: 1@1 4@2 1@3; Total Hits: 31@1: (6)4@2: (1, 1, 6, 3)1@3: (2)
d
Rolls: 2@2 1@3; Total Hits: 12@2: (4, 4)1@3: (1)

yeah, the sub i pulled out into z8 to use is the swing factor…can absorb a hit but otherwise your sub unlikely to absorb one back.

TRJ
d
Rolls: 1@1 3@2 1@3; Total Hits: 11@1: (4)3@2: (5, 1, 4)1@3: (5)

nice!

ool in z12 too please

ool?

I’ll go ahead and roll the z12 attack too for now

z12
a
Rolls: 1@2 4@3 2@4; Total Hits: 51@2: (3)4@3: (2, 2, 1, 3)2@4: (6, 4)