S05 - RisingDragon (Axis) vs Yoshi (Allies + 10), Championship

[Yoshi]

@RisingDragon:

i figured z12 was worth the risk of losing substantial german air for a potential knock out blow, given the current axis positional advantage and lack of any near term supply routes into russia, and the resulting difficulty uk will have replacing navy (esp w german bmb builds), the freeing up of more inf to go east sooner, and italian naval survival/mediterranean control upside.

you were totally right doing that. That was another mistake I made here, and you had no reason not to go for it.

@RisingDragon:

but seriously, so far it’s just been no disasters for the axis (yet), and slightly better results on the whole…vs really only one bad medium-small battle in trj for allies, and otherwise odds.  it’s not like we’ve seen <1% type battles in this game, they’ve pretty much been all within the range of expected results.  On the whole, axis have definitely fared better thus far.  However, given this is only the beginning of round 3 the odds could still revert to the mean pretty hard so don’t count yoshi out yet!

I do not want to speak too much about dices, but I would like to point out once that the axis start was just defying odds… Some maths I did to try to speak with as much objectivity as possible, which of course means not so much ;) What I’m going to say is obviously subjective, and should not be taken as the truth, just a way too show what I sometimes refer as the big amount of dices axis need to run at the beggining of the game that make this game so difficult to predict.

You got a terrific G1 and J1, not a “slightly better result”. Let’s try to explain how I analyse that (hopefully I did not make any mistake in my computations :) ).

winning all the G1 and J1 battle you’ve made is less than 50%.

But more than that, winning sz12 without loss is a 21% result (and as the sub hit in defense after that, that was not a useless result), winning sz2 without loosing air is 73.2%, and clearing sz6 without loss is a 56.6% result. On the ground, loosing one infantry or less in the three battles together is around 19.79%. All together, that gives a top 3.43% result ; let say that my analysis is made is subjective, and let round it to a top 10% G1 opening.

Now for J1 : loosing 1inf or less in the 4 battles of Asia is a 5.78% result. Loosing 1fgt or less in both sz35 and 53 battles is a 56.4% result. That makes a 3.26% top J1 opening ; once again, that is not an exact result (did not taken into account Philippines and sz50 here), so let summarize this to a 10% top J1 turn.

Both combined you get a (less than) 1% opening…

Once again, just some computations to try to be objective… which is sure not. But I’m convinced that this is the kind of opening is very close to game over. And there is nothing you can do

Of course, I’m not saying anything against your play here. You played well, while I’m making mistakes. You sure deserve your situation on the map.

I think I will wait until the end of J3 before deciding to give up or not. But I’m going some time to consider which big risk to take with Russia before that. Will try to play asap.

Cheers,

Yoshi

[RisingDragon]

Yoshi, the Axis definitely had a good opening, I don’t dispute that.  What I was trying to say was that while I don’t disagree with your math, stacking probabilities like that can lead to a misleading picture (as of course multiplying a selected series of odds of less than 100% will make for progressively smaller numbers, especially with the inclusion of one lower odds result).  For example, the Italian loss of fighter was a 6% “bad” odds result in I1.  If I had taken the inverse of your 1% opening G1/J1 math and said it was a 99%-tile outcome, once I multiplied that against the I1 6% I would have a 6% bad outcome for Axis, which obviously doesn’t make any sense…

Maybe looking at the totality of round 1, where the Axis lost two planes, which is within the normal axis planes lost on average, is a more balanced comparison.  The Axis definitely had an edge coming out of round 1 but then again, they were “supposed” to win every battle that they attempted - the difference was merely one of material where they probably had two to three more units at the end than a typical result would have dictated.  I also skipped going after some advantaged battles to increase the probability of success to overwhelming in the ones I tried (notably leaving alone the z56 ships in J1)…precisely because I didn’t want to deal with getting diced on my opening moves.

Anyhow I apologize for the above, as I don’t need to remind a skillful player like yourself about odds.  Let’s see what Russia has in store…game’s not over yet.

[Yoshi]

I totally agree that the presentation is subjective, and that there are other ways to present things ; this is why I repeated a couple of times that it was :)

I also totally agree that you made a “safe” opening by not taking all battles possible, which reduced the odds of you loosing one of the opening battle.

Just to explain why I stopped to G1 and J1 : indeed there was the loss of the italian fighter which was an unlucky result ; in the same way russian attacks went globally quite well until now. But on an other hand my calculator say that in average sz12 should have let you with 2,32 units, you got an almost perfect G3, and the Egypt battle was also a very good result fo the axis. So I assumed that outside from G1 and J1, results were not in favor of the allies, so that skipping them was not too much of subjectivity.

More generally, as already said or read several times on this forum, I think that the results of G1 and J1 is the main factor of “who might win”. And axis winning all the opening battle is not  a “normal” result : you made a safe opening, but still, in average you should be diced one every two games. Somehow, when I see people after loosing (for instance) sz2 “now it’s game over”… well I would answer that when taking the axis side, you should believe that you can win after the loss of one of your opening battles.

But this is more a general comment about AA50-41 that I’m doing here. I just made this comment because the discussion started about odds. No need to apologize for speaking of that, none offense was taken. I appreciate the discussion, and just recall such points without any bad thoughts about this game or anything on the sort. And once again I do not pretend to be right here ; such discussions are mainly subjectives, and what you say also totally make sense.

Once again, you deserve the situation on the board. I’m definitely not saying that this is due to dice. You indeed got a good opening, but after that I’ve made a very bad turn 2 in Europa. I did not adapt well enough to the early dices, which is the main reason on the situation on the map (this and you making none mistake obviously - including choosing a safe J1 as you mentioned).

I believe that this game is something like 99% over. As it is a final, I will take time to think on the board and see if I can have an idea to do something clever. Of course, that should slow my play, since I’ll need time to think longer.

[RisingDragon]

Thanks Yoshi, take the time you need

[Yoshi]

ok… let’s loose this game :)

Russia 3:

Purchase

6inf (18)
4tnk (20)

Combat Moves:

Bel (2inf, 1art)
2inf, 1art Russia
2inf Archangel

Ukraine (2inf, 1art)
4inf Caucasus
1tnk Russia

Buryatia (2inf)
7inf Stc

Dice…

Bel rd1
A: 4inf, 1art
Rolls: 3@1 2@2; Total Hits: 03@1: (4, 5, 2)2@2: (3, 4)

D: 2inf, 1art
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 13@2: (2, 3, 4)

[Yoshi]

Bel rd2
A: 3inf, 1art
Rolls: 2@1 2@2; Total Hits: 02@1: (3, 3)2@2: (4, 5)

D: 2inf, 1art
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 23@2: (1, 2, 6)

[Yoshi]

Bel holds without loss, 1inf, 1art retreat to Russia.

Buryatia rd1
A: 7inf
Rolls: 7@1; Total Hits: 17@1: (3, 1, 4, 2, 3, 4, 3)

D: 2inf
Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 12@2: (1, 3)

[Yoshi]

Buryatia rd2
A: 6inf
Rolls: 6@1; Total Hits: 26@1: (6, 1, 6, 1, 6, 6)

D: 1inf
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)

[Yoshi]

Buryatia liberated, 1inf lost.

Ukraine rd1
A: 4inf, 1tnk
Rolls: 4@1 1@3; Total Hits: 04@1: (3, 5, 3, 4)1@3: (5)

D: 2inf, 1art
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 23@2: (2, 4, 1)

[Yoshi]

Well I think that will do it ; will take some time for a last look at the board before giving my resignation.

[RisingDragon]

rough dice

[Yoshi]

Results:

Ukraine holds without loss, 2inf, 1tnk retreat to Russia.
Bel holds without loss, 1inf, 1art retreat to Russia.
Buryatia liberated, 1inf lost.

NCM:

2inf Euk -> Russia
1inf Urals -> Russia
1SS sz12 -> sz23
1bmb Australia -> Caucasus
4inf, 1art Norway -> Finland

Place Units:

2tnk, 4inf Russia
2tnk, 2inf Caucasus

Collect $28+5=33

---

well… it’s really because that’s a final that I will look at your J3 before giving up… just in case I would see a way to have a chance without Russia. But this just moved from 99% lost to 101% lost…

11T-championship-RD-vs-Yoshi-03Br.aam

[RisingDragon]

J3
3 inf 5 ftr

-chi 2 inf
nin 2 inf
sik 2 inf
fic 1 ftr
-ind 2 inf 1 rtl
bur 1 inf
mad 2 inf
ngu 2 inf 1 rtl 1 arm
z32 1 ftr

chi
a
Rolls: 4@1 1@3; Total Hits: 04@1: (3, 2, 3, 4)1@3: (4)
d
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)

[RisingDragon]

a
Rolls: 4@1 1@3; Total Hits: 14@1: (6, 1, 4, 2)1@3: (5)
d
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)

[RisingDragon]

shoot i forgot to roll for the second chi inf.  i’ll roll two now to catch up

Rolls: 2@1; Total Hits: 02@1: (4, 5)

[RisingDragon]

a
Rolls: 4@1 1@3; Total Hits: 14@1: (1, 5, 4, 2)1@3: (6)
d
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)

[RisingDragon]

chi twol

ind
a
Rolls: 4@1 2@2 2@3; Total Hits: 34@1: (4, 1, 4, 4)2@2: (4, 1)2@3: (3, 5)
d
Rolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 33@2: (1, 2, 2)

[RisingDragon]

they go out w bang.  ind twlo 3 inf

ncm
chi-nin 1 ftr
ind-z35 1 ftr
z32-z35 1 ac
z62-z61 fleet
z48-z61 fleet
jpn-kia 1 arm 1 rtl
kwa-kia 2 inf
fuk-kia 1 inf

place
jpn 3 inf 5 ftr

57

11T-championship-RD-vs-Yoshi-03cJ.aam

[Yoshi]

Yeah that’s enough, you won. Good game and congrat’z for the title :).

[RisingDragon]

Thanks Yoshi, good game!  Would have been nice if the dice had been more even and we could go more rounds.

Strategy wise, if I might comment and get your thoughts too…  While round 1 favored the axis (I agree that every other game one ought to expect to get diced in an opening battle, didn’t happen this time), in my humble opinion there were a few related decisions that cost the Allies the game.

First, while the sub bid and R1 bmb build takes out a few free trannies, given G1 was solid I think the bmb was a risky buy without R1 land units in the bid.  Second, Russia’s difficulties were compounded by the all-Pacific USA1 strategy which made it impossible for the key USA swing power to help out in the crucial Euro theater which was already looking tough by USA1 (and about to get tougher).  Third was the killer z12 UK naval mistake where whether I came out a fighter ahead or behind wouldn’t have mattered as the navy was sunk and the ability to shuck land units delayed (which would not have been a problem had USA naval assets been there to reinforce).  While that was I think a miscalculation mistake, strategically once the USA navy wasn’t in the Atlantic, had the UK navy gone the more conservative Northern route to bolster and take back Karelia (maybe using air to take out the Italian navy) it’s possible the Pacific USA strat would have had time to work.  I think you knew that with my G2 (and G3 though not needed) bmb build and z8 ss move that I was itching to take out the UK navy in z12 as the lack of any Russian land pressure would allow me to trade replaceable air with harder to replace UK navy.  Finally, I think the all Pacific USA1 route is generally speaking pretty risky, as it requires your opponent to make mistakes in order to work out well and in my opinion is easy for a carefully played Japan to defend against.

Of course, with bad dice it may have still ended up the same, but perhaps taken 10 rounds.

I’m sure I over simplified the above, as I don’t have that much experience w AA50 (tried to learn AA50 as quickly as possible through test games I played in the 2011 leagues, of which I made many mistakes).

RD