@RisingDragon:
i figured z12 was worth the risk of losing substantial german air for a potential knock out blow, given the current axis positional advantage and lack of any near term supply routes into russia, and the resulting difficulty uk will have replacing navy (esp w german bmb builds), the freeing up of more inf to go east sooner, and italian naval survival/mediterranean control upside.
you were totally right doing that. That was another mistake I made here, and you had no reason not to go for it.
@RisingDragon:
but seriously, so far it’s just been no disasters for the axis (yet), and slightly better results on the whole…vs really only one bad medium-small battle in trj for allies, and otherwise odds. it’s not like we’ve seen <1% type battles in this game, they’ve pretty much been all within the range of expected results. On the whole, axis have definitely fared better thus far. However, given this is only the beginning of round 3 the odds could still revert to the mean pretty hard so don’t count yoshi out yet!
I do not want to speak too much about dices, but I would like to point out once that the axis start was just defying odds… Some maths I did to try to speak with as much objectivity as possible, which of course means not so much ;) What I’m going to say is obviously subjective, and should not be taken as the truth, just a way too show what I sometimes refer as the big amount of dices axis need to run at the beggining of the game that make this game so difficult to predict.
You got a terrific G1 and J1, not a “slightly better result”. Let’s try to explain how I analyse that (hopefully I did not make any mistake in my computations :) ).
winning all the G1 and J1 battle you’ve made is less than 50%.
But more than that, winning sz12 without loss is a 21% result (and as the sub hit in defense after that, that was not a useless result), winning sz2 without loosing air is 73.2%, and clearing sz6 without loss is a 56.6% result. On the ground, loosing one infantry or less in the three battles together is around 19.79%. All together, that gives a top 3.43% result ; let say that my analysis is made is subjective, and let round it to a top 10% G1 opening.
Now for J1 : loosing 1inf or less in the 4 battles of Asia is a 5.78% result. Loosing 1fgt or less in both sz35 and 53 battles is a 56.4% result. That makes a 3.26% top J1 opening ; once again, that is not an exact result (did not taken into account Philippines and sz50 here), so let summarize this to a 10% top J1 turn.
Both combined you get a (less than) 1% opening…
Once again, just some computations to try to be objective… which is sure not. But I’m convinced that this is the kind of opening is very close to game over. And there is nothing you can do
Of course, I’m not saying anything against your play here. You played well, while I’m making mistakes. You sure deserve your situation on the map.
I think I will wait until the end of J3 before deciding to give up or not. But I’m going some time to consider which big risk to take with Russia before that. Will try to play asap.
Cheers,
Yoshi
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 01@1: (6)
