It’s going to take time and effort to kill those 18 inf and capture those 9 IPC’s.
I have to agree with the overall standpoint that there is no real incentive for Japan and USSR to not be at war. There is no strategy for them to not be at war other than both players deciding on their own that they won’t be at war.
Here are the options.
Russia does not DOW.
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Russia puts all 18 Inf in Amur. Japan Kills them all J1.
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Russia pulls the majority of Infantry back and leaves one guy buffer zone. Japan uses minimal forces to attack the one guy buffer zone and take what Siberian territories are available.
Russia DOW
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Russia attacks Korea but doesn’t gain any IPC. Japan takes Korea back and eventually advances into Siberia.
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Russia pulls the majority of Infantry back and leaves one guy buffer zone. Russia also moves into Persia. Japan uses minimal forces to attack the one guy buffer zone and take what Siberian territories are available.
I don’t see many options here. There are no game designed incentives for them not to be at war.
EDIT: I can think of only one reason for Japan to not attack Russia, and that’s if it is planning on doing a J1 attack on UK/ANZAC/US. I haven’t played enough games to know what the best Japan strategy is yet though.