National production chart and NCM's

[b]New York ‘lone wolf’ was one hour away from finishing his bomb[/b]
She also praised the New York Police Department, saying, “I think they handled it well.”
Officials with the NYPD, which conducted the undercover investigation using a confidential informant and a bugged apartment, said the department had to move quickly because Pimentel was about to test a pipe bomb made out of match heads, nails and other ingredients bought at neighborhood hardware and discount stores.
Two law enforcement officials said Monday that the NYPD’s Intelligence Division had sought to get the FBI involved at least twice as the investigation unfolded. Both times, the FBI concluded that Pimentel lacked the mental capacity to act on his own, they said.
The FBI thought Pimentel “didn’t have the predisposition or the ability to do anything on his own,” one of the officials said.
The officials were not authorized to speak about the case and spoke on condition of anonymity. The FBI’s New York office and the U.S. attorney’s office in Manhattan both declined to comment on Monday.
Pimentel’s lawyer, Joseph Zablocki, said his client was never a true threat.
“If the goal here is to be stopping terror … I’m not sure that this is where we should be spending our resources,” he said.
Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly defended the handling of the case Monday, saying the NYPD kept federal authorities in the loop “all along” before circumstances forced investigators to take swift measures using state charges.
“No question in my mind that we had to take this case down,” Kelly said. “There was an imminent threat.”
Added Kelly: “This is a classic case of what we’ve been talking about �� the lone wolf, an individual, self-radicalized. This is the needle in the haystack problem we face as a country and as a city.”
Authorities described Pimentel as an unemployed U.S. citizen and “al-Qaida sympathizer” who was born in the Dominican Republic. He had lived most of his life in Manhattan, aside from about five years in the upstate city of Schenectady, where authorities say he had an arrested for credit card fraud.
His mother said he was raised Roman Catholic. But he converted to Islam in 2004 and went by the name Muhammad Yusuf, authorities said.
Using a tip from police in Albany, the NYPD had been watching Pimentel using a confidential informant for the past year. Investigators learned that he was energized and motivated to carry out his plan by the Sept. 30 killing of al-Qaida’s U.S.-born cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, police said.
Pimentel was under constant surveillance as he shopped for the pipe bombmaterials. He also was overheard talking about attacking police patrol cars and postal facilities, killing soldiers returning home from abroad andbombing a police station in Bayonne, N.J., authorizes said.

@Gamer:

SS, you write very well and obviously have a great command of the game.  I’m no expert, having played my last game probably 3-4 years ago, but it just seemed like there were severe limitations on the Allies’ strategy in A&AP.  For example, if Japan goes KIF, then the U.S. MUST buy bombers on US 1, and so on.  The thing I liked about A&A Classic and even more so about A&A Revised is that there is no one single way you “must” play to win.  Each player can adopt a strategy that suits him or her best.  I just get the feeling if I play A&AP against an experienced player, I would be at a severe disadvantage because it would only take one wrong move on my part and the game would be over by Turn 2.  Am I overstating that?

Yes, it is turn 3!  :evil:
(or 4)

Posted to main website.

I’m a newcomer to this site although I have been playing A&A for maybe twenty years now.  I got A&A Pacific a couple of years ago but unluckily  :-) my gaming group has always had more than three players available, so we tend to end up playing A&A revised and A&A Europe.

However, we do play Pacific now and then and we by the second Pacific session we had learned what Saburo Sakai lays out in this essay– Japan had better buy subs and India had better start stacking land forces up in anticipation of an India assault.  Couple that idea with the realization that territories such as New Britain are vital due to the Naval Base rule and you are well on your way to an enjoyable and hard fought Pacific campaign.  Cheers!!

Sun Tzu said:Â

Carefully compare the opposing army with your own,
so that you may know where strength is superabundant
and where it is deficient.

When a general, unable to estimate the enemy’s
strength, allows an inferior force to engage a larger one,
or hurls a weak detachment against a powerful one,
and neglects to place picked soldiers in the front rank,
the result must be rout.

In order to carry out an attack, we must have
means available.

For experienced players of AAPacific, it will soon become apparent that the Out of the Box rule permitting a Japanese victory upon reaching 22 Victory Points (VPs) unbalances the game in favour of Japan.  With the option of going for an India or Australia capture or playing to 22 VPs, Japan has too many avenues to victory for the Allies to overcome.  Therefore, as Sun Tzu says, it is necessary for the Allied general to carefully compare the strength of his army to that of Japan and acquire the means to carry out an attack.

Generally, a bid comes in one of the following four forms:

1.  VP Bid
2   IPC Unit Bid
3.  IPC Bid
4.  Inverse IPC Bid

The VP Bid

At 22 VPs, Japan has the advantage.  In a future essay, I will discuss the tactics used to achieve a VP victory but suffice it to say that with the OOB rules (even using the corrected setup), Japan can usually count on a VP track of 3-4-4-4-3-3-1 = 22 which will result in victory by J7.  A victory is quite achievable by J6 if Japan can get 4 VPs on J5.Â

A VP bid stretches out the VP track to at least J8, giving the Allies one more turn to set up an SBR base from which to rob Japan of VPs or capture territories or convoy routes taking Japan below the IPCs it needs to stay in the game.

The mechanics of a VP bid are simple.  Both players secretly record the number of VPs at which they would like to play Japan and the higher number wins.  If both players bid the same, the Japanese player is chosen at random.Â

VP bids usually range from 23 to 26.  In my view, the game is fairly balance at 24 or 25 VPs.  At 24, the game slightly favours Japan.  At 25, the game slightly favours the Allies.  However, this slight advantage can easily be overcome by the dice or superior play, so the game is essentially balanced by the VP bid.

There is, however, one problem with the VP bid.  If the Japanese player chooses to initiate a KIO attack (see previous essays), the bid has no impact on the game and Japan may have an insurmountable advantage.  The KIO attack assumes the game will be over by the end of round 4 which means that VPs will never come into play.  In some cases, a Japanese player who wants to go for a KIO attack will enter a bid of 99 or some other impossibly high number to ensure that they will play Japan.  After that, it is really up to the dice to determine the outcome of the game as the counter to the KIO attack is so difficult and dependent on a significant amount of luck.

To counteract the disadvantages inherent in the VP bid system, various IPC bid systems have been created.

The IPC Unit Bid

An IPC Unit Bid is an equivalent number of IPCs bid by the Allied player that he will be able to immediately place on the board in Allied units prior to the start of J1.  IPCs can also be saved to spend on Allies 1.  The VP target for Japan remains at 22.  The Allied player can only place units in territories already controlled by the Allies or in which the Allied player already has units.  US units cannot be placed in China.  The player who bids the lower number plays Allies.

As will be clear considering the type of bid, the combination of bid amounts and unit placement are many.  In most cases, however, the Allied player should place his new units in a way that will provide the most assistance to India.   Bids will range from 16 to 24.  Some Allied players prefer to place all of their units on land in Asia (4 Rtl in Burma is popular) while others look to enhance the naval strength of their UK forces by the addition of submarines in key locations.  The most important point to remember is to not waste your bid units by placing them where they can be easily hit by a J1 surprise attack.

The IPC Bid

This bid adds IPCs to the Allied total that can be used to purchase units on Allies 1.  The IPCs can be divided amongst all Allied nations.  The lower bid plays Allies.Â

As the units purchased with this bid cannot be placed until the end of Allies 1, bids will tend to be higher using an IPC bid only.  Bids in the 20 to 28 range would be typical, with the majority of the extra IPCs awarded to India, a few to Australia and sometimes 1 to the US.

The large purchasing power for India usually prevents the Japanese player from attempting an India Crush as India will be too strong for a J3 or J4 attack to be successful.

The Inverse IPC Bid

In an inverse IPC Bid, both players bid for a number of IPCs to be awarded to the Allied player.  The player that bids higher will play Japan and the Allied player receives IPCs equal to the Japanese player bid that can be distributed amongst the 3 Allied nations and spent on Allies 1.  The game is then played to 24 VPs for Japan.

With a 24 VP target, bids using this format tend to be in the 12 to 15 range.  This is just enough to provide India with enough defensive units to discourage a KIO attack but not so much as to unbalance the game in favour of the Allies.  This bidding method was adopted by Days of Infamy AAPacific Club after their 2005 tournament “Battle for India”.Â

IPCs tend to be allocated mostly to India with some players providing 1 to the US (to permit a 2 Sub, 4 Bmr A1 purchase) and 4 to Australia (for 3 subs).

In my view the inverse IPC bid creates the right balance between the two sides while at the same time creating many strategic options for the playout.  The bid tends to push the game in the direction of a VP victory although it does not preclude an opportunistic India or Australia capture.  What this bid system does do is generally eliminate the KIO option for the Japanese, which, in my opinion, is a good thing.

Saburo Sakai

The Australia Capture - The Invasion that Wasn’t

In February of 1942, Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto proposed an invasion of Australia.  The invasion plan, calling for landings in both the north and south of Australia, required the use of 10 Japanese Army divisions and because resources where stretched thin, the plan was rejected by Tojo and the Imperial General Staff.

While the Japanese didn’t have the resources to invade Australia during World War II, the Japanese player in AAPacific does start the game with sufficient resources to capture New South Wales, prevent any Allied counterattack and win the game.  However, the Australia capture is a much tougher strategic road and usually requires a mistake by the Allies to be successful since US reinforcements are much closer to Australia than to India.

The Australia capture can be initiated from any balanced J1 opening and doesn’t require any unusual opening moves.  Since it requires some mistakes by the Allied player, an Australia capture is generally an opportunistic move rather than a planned strategy.  If you’re the Japanese player, you shouldn’t start the game thinking that you will win by capturing NSW.  Rather, you should always keep in mind the possibility of invading Australia if the right circumstances present themselves.

After a “standard” J1 opening that sees the capture of Philippines, Hongkong, Anhwe, Kiangsi, Malaya, Java, New Britain, Midway and the destruction of Allied fleets in sz9, 27, 38, 43 and 46, the Japanese player has the basic set up to invade Australia on J2.  Whether an invasion actually occurs will depend on the Allied moves on Allies 1.

The key to the Australia invasion is capturing both Northern Territory and Queensland.  Often the Allied player will retreat his forces from these territories into South Australia, leaving the capture of NT and Queensland as a walk in.  Usually, Japan is able to bring in units from New Britain and New Guinea, Philippines and Java during combat movement.  Only 1 infantry (loaded on a DD) should be used to capture NT and the rest placed in Queensland.  On NCM, any units in Hongkong, Kiangsi, FIC and Malaya can be moved to Queensland on all available transports and DDs.  These units can take advantage of the 3 space port movement between sz45 or 46 and sz32.  The bulk of the Japanese fleet that started in sz27 can be moved to sz29 to block any US amphibious assault into Queensland intended to disrupt the forces massing in Queensland for the attack on NSW.  If the Americans attack the Japanese fleet in sz29, any fighters on the carriers should be the last loss and if they survive the battle, they land in Queensland, ready to attack NSW on J3.

An Australia capture is most likely to succeed if Japan can attack the Allied reinforcements that were moved to sz14.  This can happen when the Allies fail to block sz15 and sz28 or a Japanese sub survives to J2 in sz28 or sz9.  Why are these subs important?  They allow a twelve fighter, 2 bomber attack on sz14 which is usually sufficient to wipe out all of the Allied units (and certainly all of the transports) that are located in sz14 at the start of J2.  How is this possible?  Six fighters can fly from sz27 to sz14, a distance of 2 moves and these fighters can land on New Britain after the battle.  Fighters from sz43, Formosa and Marianas can also reach sz14, a distance of 4 moves.  Their only possible landing place will be the aircraft carriers from sz27 moving to sz14 on NCM.Â

Normally, if the US has a sub in sz14, Japan can’t clear the sea zone because the Allied player will have blocked sz15 and sz28 preventing any naval units from getting there to attack the subs (remember, in AAPacific, subs cannot be attacked by air units unless a DD is spotting).  Without clearing the sea zone, the ACs can’t move to sz14 and therefore only 6 fighters can reach and attack sz14.  One loose sub changes that equation.  All Japan needs to do is add a sub to the attack on sz14 and 12 fighters and 2 bombers can join in the attack.  Japan does not need to entirely wipe out the US fleet.  All it needs to do is kill as much as possible to prevent these reinforcements from reaching NSW to make the J3 attack on the Australian capital a risky proposition.

If Japan can capture and reinforce Queensland and wipe out the US reinforcements in sz14, NSW will almost certainly fall on J3.  On J3 NCM, Japan moves its entire naval force to sz30, preventing any follow on US units from attacking NSW and liberating Australia.  Japan wins the game at the beginning of J4 when it holds NSW and Tokyo.

As mentioned, an Australia capture is only available if the Allied player makes a mistake.  Usually, that mistake occurs when the Allied player fails to appropriately protect Queensland and sz14.Â

First, there should be no half measures in Queensland.  You should either withdraw from it entirely, leaving all your units available for a counterattack or for defence of NSW or you should heavily defend Queensland.  It is possible to defend Queensland with 8 Inf, 2 Rtl, AA, 3 UK Fighters, 2 US Bombers and up to 2 US fighters.  The two UK infantry from New Zealand can be landed in Queensland by moving the transport to sz32.  This has the further advantage of negating the Japanese BB support shot because it requires a sea battle before the amphibious invasion.  Facing such a defence, Japan would be foolish to attack Queensland because it would be too weakened to prevent its forces from being wiped out by a counterattack.  This defence of Queensland is available to the Allied player when he is confident that Japan is not likely to initiate a successful India Crush.  In those circumstances, it is not necessary to move units into South Australia for the “Anti-Crush” (see Essay #2).

Second, the Allies must keep their early reinforcements alive but close enough to support Australia.  That’s why it is important to move as much of the force as possible to sz14 but to block any attack on it.  Any subs in sz28 and sz9 must be killed.  You should use overkill to make sure these subs do not escape by diving.  Sea zone 28 and sz15 must be blocked to prevent a naval attack on sz14.  You should leave a UK sub in sz29 to ensure that the Japanese sz27 fleet cannot move to sz29 during NCM.  This leaves open the US amphibious assault of Queensland supported by bombers and fighters which will put an end to the Japanese hopes of capturing NSW.  Finally, you must have a US sub in sz14 or Japan can clear the sea zone with air alone and can get the 12 fighter, 2 bmr attack on the sea zone that will wipe out the US reinforcements.

In summary, Japan can win by capturing Australia but the attack is usually only available if the Allied player makes a mistake in his defence posture and Japan moves immediately to exploit that mistake.

Saburo Sakai

I had to modify this essay.  One sea zone reference was incorrect.  I had referred to a sz28 sub surviving when it should have been sz27.  This should be changed in the published essay.  The error in the essay was in the paragraph immediately following the summary of the UK India purchases.

SS