Axis Advantage?

I recently played two games of Spring '42 against my cousin.  On BOTH occasions, I captured UK on G2 and he conceded.  My cousin would be the first to admit that he is a lousy A&A player, but I still took a lot of joy out of silencing his trash talking, even if only for a moment.  It NEVER should have succeeded.  It was entirely due to poor decisions on his part.  Hobbes is absolutely correct.  The UK would have to make GRAVE miscalculations (purchasing and combat), and/or have absolutely horrendous luck with the dice.  Hobbes gave it in a nutshell.  Let me flesh it out a bit for G1 and G2.

Let’s give Germany the MAXIMUM possible force to bring in for a UK invasion on G1 or G2.

G1 assault on UK:  German 1 BOM, 2 FTR, 1 ARM, 1 INF versus UK 2 FTR, 1 ARM, 1 ART, 2 INF, 1 BOM, and the AA.  Germany has 4% chance to win with 1 ARM or better (in order to capture, the standard OOL is changed)

G2 assault on UK:  Let’s assume on R1, Russia went big into WR alone.  Germany has all 6 FTR’s intact.  On G1, Germany bought 1 CV, 3 TT, 1 ARM, and the SZ8 SS sank the SZ10 US fleet (50% chance).  On G2, Germany could bring as much as 1 BOM, 6 FTR, 5 ARM, 5 INF, 1 BB bombardment shot (though the BB would be better used in SZ 9 to interdict/divert the new US1-built fleet hoping to liberate UK on US2.  Let’s keep the BB bombarding UK, however, just to give the best possible odds for the Germans in the invasion of UK. With the sz10 fleet eliminated, the G1 naval purchases are placed in the Baltic rather than the Med.  The UK player has to see the threat of a G2 invasion bearing down on them.  The UK player, not being COMPLETELY inept, decides to shore up UK.  UK purchases 5 INF 3 ARM, the SZ1 TT brought the ECan ARM over to UK.  The BB stays put in SZ2 as Germany’s 3 SS, 1 DD, 1 CV have a 98.5% chance of wiping out the BB without needing to divert any air units from the invasion.  Germany has 1 BOM, 6 FTR, 5 ARM, 5 INF, and the BB bombardment bearing down on UK, who stands with 7 INF, 1 ART, 5 ARM, 3 FTR, 2 BOM (1 FTR 1 BOM from EUS), 1 AA.  Germany’s odds of capturing UK under this optimal condition would still be only 24.5%, and the US would be able to liberate on US2.  If Germany parks the BB in sz9 to interdict/divert the US, a liberation by the US would be impossible, but the German odds of success at UK drop to 19% without having the bombardment.

Clearly, a G1 attempt is suicide.  Assuming the G1 attack succeeded against the SZ10 fleet (50% chance of success) followed by a best case scenario G2 attempt after a G1 build of 1 CV, 3 TT, 1 ARM (19% chance of success while preventing liberation by US).  By compounding the probabilities, your chance of a G2 assault of this sort succeeding is less than 10%.  If Germany is missing a single FTR from their original 6, the odds are cut in half again.

IF you are playing against a lousy UK player, you might have better luck forgoing the naval build on G1 altogether.  Germany can opt to smash the sz2 fleet, and hope the UK will turn around and buy 1 CV, 2 DD (or a similar navy heavy buy) and ignore the Baltic fleet on UK1 (2 big IF’s), allowing Germany to invade UK with 1 BB shot, 2 loaded transports, 6 FTR, and 1 BOM on G2.  83% chance of success without US units on UK.  Long story short, unless you are playing inept opponent(s), a G1 or G2 invasion of UK is a suicide mission.

LOL USA…

Take, for example, the not-immediately-obvious Japanese air to Ukraine/West Russia/Caucasus trick.

I recently played a game against my friend, where I was the Axis, and I think that the above move probably won me the game. On G1 I threw pretty much all of the available ground units and fighters at the Caucasus in attempts to capture it… this turned out to be a vital move in crippling the Russian deployment options… later on in the game you only have one “front”/IC to worry about. I also moved 1 or 2 fighters to Norway to harass the various allied ships that were not yet organized into a fleet. On J1 I flew 4 fighters to the Caucasus… later on in the game these fighters are even more valuable becuase they can be used to shore up the holes in your German lines, especially when you are pushing to Moscow. Using this joint J and G strategy, I didn’t even have to devote many of my IPCs to attacking Russia as Japan.

Overall, you definently have to be agressive as the Axis right out of the gate.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-4nV3s92A4

@iGuitar93:

Yes I have previously played risk. I thought it was too much of a game of luck so I tried this one.

A&A is also a mixture of skill and luck, although you can use a Low Luck system that greatly diminishes the random factor built into it.

Thanks polybios!

I take back what I said about forgetting Africa.  With the new transport rules, it is much easier to fend off Allied convoy’s, especially for the first few turns.  I did some testing (having the new TripleA now) and this is what seemed to work best:

-Take out see zone 2 with sub and whatever air needed.  Leave Canada transport for Baltic fleet as it won’t have much of an escort with sea zone 2 dead
-take out battleship in sea zone 13 with remainder of air that can reach.
-grab 1 inf and 1 tank from Southern Europe, land in Egypt with all land forces that can reach and fighter that can reach from eastern front.
-take Karelia with Norway troops and reserves.
-consolidate on Karelia, Belorussia and Ukraine

Hold Eastern line (trading if need be) until Japs storm in back side.
trade Baltic fleet for any UK1 fleet build
Keep majority of air in Western Europe and buy a bomber a turn (for 3 turns).  Sink everything

Eventually Japan storms in as usual, and it takes 3+ turns for a large enough fleet to hold off Germany’s air.

Another thing I tried was taking the Japan fleet in the East Indies and spare fighters and take out India fleet, then move through Mediterranian see to hold Gibralter with the German Battleship.  This bought an extra turn or two of holding off allied fleet.  You don’t need it in the Pacific anyway assuming you destroy the Pearl Harbor fleet.

It caused me to lose all but Kwangtung on Asia initially, but I ferried so many troops in after the first turn it didn’t matter.  The allies have no supply line in eastern Asia to stop you, and with half the Japan fleet in the Atlantic with the German boats left, it made African and Western Europe landings impossible.  They only thing the Allies can do is Norway landings, which take twice as long from the US.

I’m not sure of a good Allied counter to this.  I did have the PC move the Russian sub to sea zone 2, which helped take out more units in that battle (still only lost a fighter and sub).