Well then I agree, If you send Everything From AH incl the first buy towards Russia plus Everything from Berlin, Prussia and Silicia Russia will be in Revolution R5 no question (though they would not have taken Moscow only contested).
Though in this scenario with Germany sending Munich into Tyrol, Belgium would have fallen by r5 (most likely r3). Italy would take and hold Trieste for 2 rounds, making 20 IPC R2 and R3(maybe even 22IPC R3 since serbia would be weak then).
Lets look at the IPC at the end of R5:
AH: Taken Ukraine, Serbia and Romania. Lost nothing: 34 ICP
Germany: Africa is clear of axis by the end of turn5. Which means minus 4 IPC. Germany would ahve taken most likely Polen, Livonia and Belarus, which means plus 7 IPC. And taken Swiss, plus 1 IPC.
Total IPC: 39
France: 24+Portogal+Belgium = 28 IPC
Britain: 30+Persia+Meso+Africa(easier to just assume 1 Ally took all of Africa): Total: 39 IPC
Italy would still keep Venice and Albania in r5 in this scenario: 16 IPC
So in total: Allies: 83 IPC (plus 20 from America), Axis: 73 IPC
During R6-R10, The Ottomans would fall to Britain. Afterwards shipping would commence to reinforce Italy who would not have lost more than at most Venice and Piemonte. Germany would not have gotten anywhere with France yet with the assistence from America. R10-R15: Axis would loss slowly but surely.
With very lucky dice, R6-R15 may turn out in the favor of the axis but not in a lowluck game.