USSR Invasion

After the fall of Leningrad G5 I advanced on Moscow on a broad (4 territory-wide) front, dividing my forces in 4.

Russia can counter attack any one of the mini stacks, but risks putting his own stack out of position, vulnerable to counters from newly arriving armor. Strafing attacks become a possibility, but this prevents his own stack from retreating back to Moscow.

All he could do was slowly collapse on Moscow (Volgograd was being threatened by the Italians, falling on I7).

@Latro:

@JamesAleman:

Axis win G7 under ideal conditions otherwise G8 if the US does not take Egypt,Berlin, Rome or France.

I find this line the most interesting. With no early sizable naval builds, all of the Luftwaffe going East, most of the other reinforcements going East as well … how can Germany ever hope to fend off the amphibious assaults coming from the West? Combined UK/US landings are pretty much guaranteed as early as turn 4 and you have nothing to push them back.

8-)

“Ideal conditions” means if they haven’t made a large successful landing or seized one of the victory cities preventing your 8th. Your air force does not move towards Russia until turn 5 for the turn 6 assault. You may note 10 mech costs 40 IPCs, leaving enough money for either an air unit, sub or 4-5 land units a turn for defense based on your needs. Enough air/subs keeps the US fleet at bay, or they risk throwing it away. Turn 5 [the “effective” landing turn[i]-maybe] and beyond sees only defensive German builds.

Its been my experience that UK cannot risk placing a fleet down before the American’s arrive or turn 5 whichever occurs first.[Turn 5 is the round that you shift your implied threat away form the sea towards Moscow. By then the US has already placed navy in the waters to counter the air challenge, thus reducing their landing fleet size.] Why? Your sz113 fleet BB,CA, 3-6 subs (1 a turn costs 6 IPCs) and 8 air units. (my first turn build is only 6 mechs so that I build a sub 24+6=30). To protect transports from the Germans on turn 4 from [5 navy and 8 air], the US/UK needs at least 3-4 [DD/Support Ships] and 2 carriers and 4 fighters.

If they land on W. Germany, the turn you acquired the 8th city, they still lose on Germany’s turn during the check for win step at the beginning of each axis turn (top of p.24 AAE40). They literally have 1 turn to bring you below 8 cities. Its easier to do after G8 but by G6-G7 can be a challenge. Remember a factory in Norway is nice for the allies, but unless it was used to take Novgorod, it will still be there when the game ends.

Remember its a race to win in E40, you can only turtle maybe in G40. Germany is the main player, they either win it quickly, or wait and lose.

Did my suggested piece count hitting Moscow G6 seem realistic?

P.S. Thank you for your concern and response, I have now provided additional detail for further consideration, as much as is possible without knowing what the allies responses are…I can’t post all likely events. I can just post steps for my previous successes that may or may not work for your play style, that is up to the reader to evaluate and try.

@JamesAleman:

I have success with G2 attacks.

I drive straight for Moscow, pausing 1 turn and hit Moscow G6.

This is achieved by taking France with 5 armor, keeping the German air force in tact, and building mostly mech each turn.

As stated above ignore Yugoslavia and any Russian 1 infantry zones.
Invasion route is: E.Poland G2, W. UkraineG3, PauseG4, BryanskG5, and then MoscowG6.

G2: 18inf, 5art,4Mech,2arm; G3: 18 inf, 5art, 7Mech,3 arm; G4: 18 inf, 5 art, 23 Mech, 8 Arm; G5: 18 inf, 5 art, 26 Mech, 8 arm; G6: 18 inf, 5 art, 30 Mech, 8 arm, 4ftr,3tac,1bmb.
Builds: 1)6 mech(1 saved in Belgium); 2) 13 mech; 3) 10 mech; 4) 10 mech(does not make Moscow-novgorad+volgograd force); 5+) defensive forces

Grab Moscow G6, take other cities by G8 hopefully G7 if they are emptied in the defense of Moscow.

Axis win G7 under ideal conditions otherwise G8 if the US does not take Egypt,Berlin, Rome or France.
Note, it is technically possible to hit Volgograd and Novgorad (Not likely)  G6 if empty for a G6 win.

Interesting… I hadn’t looked at the possibility of using part of the mechanized force in W. Germany to bolster the G2 attack. I assume that the Germans focus on France and don’t attack N/B (thus the mech left behind to stop the French from taking Benelux) but that might be a little risky attack, depending on the number of planes used there and against the UK fleets.

The piece count looks correct. I wouldn’t expect for all of the 5 tanks used in France to survive though. With the G4 build Germany might start switching to defensive units since they won’t reach Russia for G7 (unless built on Volvograd/Novgorod).

@Hobbes:

Interesting… I hadn’t looked at the possibility of using part of the mechanized force in W. Germany to bolster the G2 attack. I assume that the Germans focus on France and don’t attack N/B (thus the mech left behind to stop the French from taking Benelux) but that might be a little risky attack, depending on the number of planes used there and against the UK fleets.

The piece count looks correct. I wouldn’t expect for all of the 5 tanks used in France to survive though. With the G4 build Germany might start switching to defensive units since they won’t reach Russia for G7 (unless built on Volvograd/Novgorod).

I typically destroy 4/5 of the UK navy zones, Leaving the BB/CA in sz 111? for G2. I build a sub turn 1 to make sure I prevent the UK N/O and for a counter-attack. I use the BB/CA in 112 as bait for the BB/CA in 111. I typically hit France with everything (+ 1 FTR) that can reach [7@1,4@2,6@3vs:9@2,2@3,1@4], minus 1 Mech to protect the air units that land in Belgium as the Bomber has to land there when its done hitting 109. Yes I ignore Normandy until G2.

The 4 Mechs on G2 are the first turn production in Berlin plus 1 saved in Belgium. it should only be 3 mechs…oops, that mech reaches on G3. Yes sometimes I take France with as few as 3 tanks. If it only last 3 rounds, it leans towards 5 armor and 1 artillery after they hit me [5+3+2=] 10 times. I hit them [5+4+3=] 12 times which typically ends it by round 3 the German fighter tips the scale enough for the better outcome.

The 4th turn production gives options: Swing towards an allied landing G5, meet up and support Bulgarian or Finland infantry for any Russian probing attacks, or to secure the other cities.

Note: my Germany typically collects: 59,50,52,52 the first 4 rounds.
Also: the battle for Moscow is a close fight, if Germany loses, that’s the game. This is not a “killer” strategy, its just the one that I use to take Moscow quickly starting on G2.
Also: I give Italy two objectives: Hold Egypt until US9 and build infantry/artillery for European defense. I typically collect 15+ IPCs a turn with them.

@JamesAleman:

I typically destroy 4/5 of the UK navy zones, Leaving the BB/CA in sz 111? for G2. I build a sub turn 1 to make sure I prevent the UK N/O and for a counter-attack. I use the BB/CA in 112 as bait for the BB/CA in 111. I typically hit France with everything (+ 1 FTR) that can reach [7@1,4@2,6@3vs:9@2,2@3,1@4], minus 1 Mech to protect the air units that land in Belgium as the Bomber has to land there when its done hitting 109. Yes I ignore Normandy until G2.

The 4 Mechs on G2 are the first turn production in Berlin plus 1 saved in Belgium. it should only be 3 mechs…oops, that mech reaches on G3. Yes sometimes I take France with as few as 3 tanks. If it only last 3 rounds, it leans towards 5 armor and 1 artillery after they hit me [5+3+2=] 10 times. I hit them [5+4+3=] 12 times which typically ends it by round 3 the German fighter tips the scale enough for the better outcome.

Using all that power in France gives you a 97.5% odd of winning the battle, with the most likely result of 2 art, 5 mech and 1 ftr remaining. You could reassign the fighter elsewhere and still get 90% odds. Ignoring N/B to focus on France is a good idea - you won’t get the NO unless you also take Southern France.

Most likely you will clear 3 of the 5 SZs, since the attack on SZ106 is a coin toss. Moving the German fleet to SZ112 to be bait sounds counterproductive since the UK can attack it with the units on SZ111 plus the fighters on the UK and still perform the attack on the Italians on SZ95.

Also: the battle for Moscow is a close fight, if Germany loses, that’s the game. This is not a “killer” strategy, its just the one that I use to take Moscow quickly starting on G2.

To me it is a killer strat since once the fight for Moscow starts the result should determine the winner of the game :)
I’m still not 100% convinced of buying only mech infantry - I think the Germans need more offensive power (i.e. armor) to defend themselves from a Russian counterattack on W. Ukraine/Belarus on R3 and later to take Moscow. I’m gonna run some simulations for that.

I’m a bit puzzled here … if I add 5 turns of production (guesstimate of course) to the initial Soviet forces, the German has exactly 0% chance of winning against that massive Red Army. That is of course an extreme example of when the Soviet Union chooses to concentrate everything in Moscow, but the odds are so overwhelmingly in favour of the Soviets, that they can easily afford to have smaller formations elsewhere dealing with minor German flank operations (who will also be very limited due to the concentrated push strategy).

Did I mis anything?

:?

@Latro:

I’m a bit puzzled here … if I add 5 turns of production (guesstimate of course) to the initial Soviet forces, the German has exactly 0% chance of winning against that massive Red Army. That is of course an extreme example of when the Soviet Union chooses to concentrate everything in Moscow, but the odds are so overwhelmingly in favour of the Soviets, that they can easily afford to have smaller formations elsewhere dealing with minor German flank operations (who will also be very limited due to the concentrated push strategy).

Did I mis anything?

:?

I have made an Excel sheet to progress the advance of the German army into Russia.

This a table presenting the size of both armies (only land units included), both in number of units and the total IPC value of the units (TUV), at the beginning of their turns. It assumes the scenario described by JamesAleman on his previous posts.

| | G Units | G TUV | R Units | TUV |
| G1 | 46 | 173 | 31 | 104 |
| R1 | 53 | 198 | 31 | 104 |
| G2 | 53 | 198 | 39 | 132 |
| R2 | 64 | 243 | 37 | 126 |
| G3 | 64 | 243 | 45 | 160 |
| R3 | 78 | 290 | 43 | 154 |

As you may see, by the start of R3 Germany’s army is almost the double of the size of the Russian army, with most of the force will be in position to strike at Russian territories. And if Germany follows the straight for Moscow attack plan then it has no interest of diverting forces to take 1 IPC territories. Any lone Soviet infantry can be dealt with by the Finland and Bulgaria infantry and new production or simply ignored. So the Soviets really have no other option than to pull back everything they have to defend Moscow.
After G4 the distances involved and the presence of UK/US landings will limit the number of units that can be sent to Russia but even then it will take quite a while before the Red Army is able to achieve parity with the Germans.

But definitely the odds are not 0% for the Germans, depending on their buys and moves. If they move hard against Russia its more of a coin toss, and the more resources their pour into it, the better the odds.

I’m not kidding …

I used the list of the German mech inf army as it would be in G6 when attacking Moscow and then made a guesstimate of the Red Army (starting army + 5 turns inf buy) that could be in place at that time to defend it. Tossed the numbers into the Axis and Allies odds calculator … and it came up with 0% chance of a win for the Germans. Keep in mind that the Red Army can have as much as 70 inf by that time …

:-o

@Latro:

I’m not kidding …

I used the list of the German mech inf army as it would be in G6 when attacking Moscow and then made a guesstimate of the Red Army (starting army + 5 turns inf buy) that could be in place at that time to defend it. Tossed the numbers into the Axis and Allies odds calculator … and it came up with 0% chance of a win for the Germans. Keep in mind that the Red Army can have as much as 70 inf by that time …

:-o

I’ve just done the calc as well with a calculatorl:

70 inf, 3 art, 2 arm, 2 ftr, 1 tac, 1 AA Gun for the Russians.
18 inf, 5 art, 35 armor (the initial 8 and 3 production runs on a Major IC on Romania that I mentioned in a previous post, although it won’t produce always 10 arm but will always produce 10 units, some of them mech), 7 mech, 3 ftrs, 2 tac, 1 bmr (the number of planes assumes some losses sinking UK fleets).

Result for a G6 attack:
A. survives: 54% D. survives: 45.8% No one survives: 0.2%

G should kill, on average, 27 units during the first round of combat while the Russians should kill some 25 units. But the Germans lose units with an attack of 1 while the Russians lose units with a defense of 2, so the offensive.
Germans start with 166 attack points, Russians with 161 points. If the 1st round goes average then Germans drop to a 128 attack while the Russians drop to 107. If you keep getting average rolls for both then Russia will fall.

Ah, miscommunication there …

I used the list of the German mech inf army as it would be in G6 when attacking Moscow …

I was talking about the Mech Inf army of JamesAleman and his G6 Moscow push. Your Armour army has a lot more punch, but also a lot less screening units. The best way to stop that, as I metnioned before, would be to counterattack before it reaches Moscow to kill the infantry … after that the battles will be almost pure armour v. infantry which is a very bad match-up for the attacker.

8-)

I agree, if you build all Infantry, and move all units to Moscow…It would not be “Ideal Conditions” for you to continue my all mech push.

At this point, you would have to adjust your plan. It should be apparent by the beginning of turn 4, that Russia is moving its units to Moscow. I suggest you have two choices, based on what the other allies are doing.

Choice 1: Change G4’s planned production. Continue with your move towards Moscow as you have the units on the board, when Russia moves its stack into Moscow, since it is all infantry you can move next to it with your stack…pinning it in Moscow and send 1 - 3 armor to clean up the southern territories plus the V-City. Use the Finland infantry to secure the Northern V-City. Send the Bulgarian infantry to Berlin. Russia retreating to Moscow leaves them maybe 8 IPCs a turn, so add 20 IPCs plus 2 N/Os to Germany’s estimated 39 + 10 for the Norway N/Os. I estimate a German Production of 79 IPCs by turn 6 under this scenario. Now, budget 12-15 IPCs for artillery in Volgograd/Russian front, the rest in navy to either do a late game Sea Lion for city number 8 or a sub air force strategy with a Neutral crush that prevents an allied buildup in Gibraltar…Italy ground forces will enter Spain when Germany takes it. With Spain as a landing field the W. Germany air base reaches most allied staging areas, Axis control of Gibraltar protects Italy. Play a game of production with the allies, eventually Moscow or London will fall if you outproduce them.

Choice 2: build all armor G4, and maybe another round of armor and try to take G7 or G8. I haven’t done the math to see if that would be viable.

This may seem risky, but changing strategies mid game is not without its risks. Again, I am not advocating this as a be all end all strategy. It was just a fast way to take Moscow, unless Russia does “extreme” builds and moves to prevent it. All it takes is a small Russian stack protecting Novgorad or move offensive unit builds and I bet the numbers change. Maybe they don’t and I’m just wasting our collective time.

Thanks for the input and crunching the numbers for me. I value the debate and hope to benefit from the points presenting regarding this strategy.

@Latro:

Ah, miscommunication there …

I used the list of the German mech inf army as it would be in G6 when attacking Moscow …

I was talking about the Mech Inf army of JamesAleman and his G6 Moscow push. Your Armour army has a lot more punch, but also a lot less screening units.

I had noticed that you used the ‘mech army’ for your calculations. I used the ‘tank army’ example because you seemed sure that Moscow could not fall to the Germans  :-)

The best way to stop that, as I metnioned before, would be to counterattack before it reaches Moscow to kill the infantry …

Counterattacking a stack so loaded with tanks (and possibly planes as well) will remove most, if not all of the screening infantry. But it will also bring more losses to the attacker because of the tank stack.

after that the battles will be almost pure armour v. infantry which is a very bad match-up for the attacker.

If you mean that the attacker will be trading units of more value than the defender, yes. But if both sides are equal in numbers (and attacking the tank stack will kill a lot of Russian infantry) then the attacker has the advantage since his units have a bigger attack factor.

@JamesAleman:

I agree, if you build all Infantry, and move all units to Moscow…It would not be “Ideal Conditions” for you to continue my all mech push.

At this point, you would have to adjust your plan. It should be apparent by the beginning of turn 4, that Russia is moving its units to Moscow. I suggest you have two choices, based on what the other allies are doing.

Choice 1: Change G4’s planned production. Continue with your move towards Moscow as you have the units on the board, when Russia moves its stack into Moscow, since it is all infantry you can move next to it with your stack…pinning it in Moscow and send 1 - 3 armor to clean up the southern territories plus the V-City. Use the Finland infantry to secure the Northern V-City. Send the Bulgarian infantry to Berlin. Russia retreating to Moscow leaves them maybe 8 IPCs a turn, so add 20 IPCs plus 2 N/Os to Germany’s estimated 39 + 10 for the Norway N/Os. I estimate a German Production of 79 IPCs by turn 6 under this scenario. Now, budget 12-15 IPCs for artillery in Volgograd/Russian front, the rest in navy to either do a late game Sea Lion for city number 8 or a sub air force strategy with a Neutral crush that prevents an allied buildup in Gibraltar…Italy ground forces will enter Spain when Germany takes it. With Spain as a landing field the W. Germany air base reaches most allied staging areas, Axis control of Gibraltar protects Italy. Play a game of production with the allies, eventually Moscow or London will fall if you outproduce them.

Choice 2: build all armor G4, and maybe another round of armor and try to take G7 or G8. I haven’t done the math to see if that would be viable.

This may seem risky, but changing strategies mid game is not without its risks. Again, I am not advocating this as a be all end all strategy. It was just a fast way to take Moscow, unless Russia does “extreme” builds and moves to prevent it. All it takes is a small Russian stack protecting Novgorad or move offensive unit builds and I bet the numbers change. Maybe they don’t and I’m just wasting our collective time.

Thanks for the input and crunching the numbers for me. I value the debate and hope to benefit from the points presenting regarding this strategy.

I only crunched the numbers on that total-infantry defence to get an idea of what the situation would be during the mech-infantry push to Moscow on G6. Needless to say, those numbers turned out to be very extreme indeed. So extreme actually, that the Soviets can afford to operate several smaller infantry formations away from Moscow and still have something like a 95% chance of victory at the capital. Due to the massive defenders advantage, the Soviets have a lot of flexibility in their build … the Germans on the other hand do not.

This immediately locks down your first choice as alternative strategy. The German mech-inf can’t lock down the Soviet army in Moscow because it has no chance of victory in either attack or defence. For every small flanking formation you move away from the  main army, the Soviets can intercept with more and still keep their massive advantage around Moscow.

The reason for this lies in the effectiveness of the initial builds. Germany builds mech infantry to attack, the Soviet Union builds regular infantry to defend. For every 30 IPC Germany uses on the mech infantry, they gain 7.5 pips in the attack … the Soviets gain 20 defensive pips with their infantry build using the same 30 IPC. That’s almost 3 times as effective!

Choice 2:

G7 attack with 10 extra armour gives 1.1% chance of success
G8 attack with 20 extra armour gives 14.5% chance of success
G9 attack with 30 extra armour gives 36.7% chance of success

Personally I don’t put too much faith in precise predictions so late in the game though … way too much can happen to mess things up. I also don’t think it’s realistic to expect Germany being able to spend up to three turns of (almost) full production going East … in my games around turn 4-5 the landings in the West start to become very serious and drain a lot of income.

On a sidenote: I haven’t been able to find a good way to attack the Soviet Union yet, but I’m considering trying lots of smaller attacks in stead of the single concentrated push towards Moscow. So far I haven’t seen any concentrated push strategy with good odds of success. The advantage of multiple small attacks would be:

• The Soviets will either have to defend with multiple smaller stacks or give up a lot of ground and lose valuable economic power.
• Multiple smaller attacking formations can easily concentrate attacks against a single defensive formation, defenders can never react in time … and if the concentrate in an important location, the attackers will remain spread out and take more territories.
• Defending infantry becomes very scary in large numbers … but small formations are easy to destroy. So the defender has the choice of losing valuable troops defending against multiple attacks which prevents concentrating a large powerful army, or giving up a lot of ground very fast leaving him with very limited resources to build his main army.

8-)

@Hobbes:

The best way to stop that, as I mentioned before, would be to counterattack before it reaches Moscow to kill the infantry …

Counterattacking a stack so loaded with tanks (and possibly planes as well) will remove most, if not all of the screening infantry. But it will also bring more losses to the attacker because of the tank stack.

after that the battles will be almost pure armour v. infantry which is a very bad match-up for the attacker.

If you mean that the attacker will be trading units of more value than the defender, yes. But if both sides are equal in numbers (and attacking the tank stack will kill a lot of Russian infantry) then the attacker has the advantage since his units have a bigger attack factor.

Let’s take the G3 concentrated armoured push through Belarus as an example. I’ll leave the “Italian option” out since it’s too easy to counter.

The Germans can take Belarus with a max army of 19 inf / 5 art / 13 arm as you said. The Soviets can counterattack with a max army of possibly 33 inf / 6 art / 2 mech / 2 arm / 2 fgt / 2 tac (though build can vary of course). Tossing the numbers into the calculators gives the Soviet counterattack an 83% chance of success with on average 6 soviet ground units surviving.

This leaves Germany with basically just 1 stack of 10 armour at the factory, which could of course again take Belarus. The soviets 2 stacks of 10 infantry ready, 1 stack adjacent already to Belarus for the next counterattack with air support.

There is no doubt that eventually Germany will win with using a 60 IPC build each turn against a Soviet 30 IPC build, but without that all-important infantry screen that armour will not be at the gates of Moscow anywhere near turn 5. So the question is, how long can Germany afford to spend nearly 100% of the economy on the East?

Another option for the Soviets at Belarus would be to fight for just one or two rounds before pulling back. Such a two-round counterattack (counting pips) would leave the Germans with 2 art / 13 arm in Belarus and the Soviets with 9 inf / 6 art / 2 mech / 2 arm and an extra 10 inf reinforcements in Smolensk. No matter how you look at it, without a good screen it will be a slow and costly road towards Moscow for the Germans.

Assuming the first landings can start as early as turn 4, Germany simply can’t afford to spend everything in the East for that long.

8-)

Am I the only one who always upgrades to a Major Factory in Germany on the first turn? I never see it mentioned but to me it’s obvious. You need to be able to mobilize 10 units there.

@Raeder:

Am I the only one who always upgrades to a Major Factory in Germany on the first turn? I never see it mentioned but to me it’s obvious. You need to be able to mobilize 10 units there.

Yes, because everyone is doing sealion right now and building a carrier G1

@calvinhobbesliker:

@Raeder:

Am I the only one who always upgrades to a Major Factory in Germany on the first turn? I never see it mentioned but to me it’s obvious. You need to be able to mobilize 10 units there.

Yes, because everyone is doing sealion right now and building a carrier G1

I see. Well, I’m not much of a Sealion guy, more of a Barbarossa guy. On G1 I’m already thinking Barbarossa.

@Raeder:

@calvinhobbesliker:

@Raeder:

Am I the only one who always upgrades to a Major Factory in Germany on the first turn? I never see it mentioned but to me it’s obvious. You need to be able to mobilize 10 units there.

Yes, because everyone is doing sealion right now and building a carrier G1

I see. Well, I’m not much of a Sealion guy, more of a Barbarossa guy. On G1 I’m already thinking Barbarossa.

Yeah, good for you. Sealion looks really cheap and ahistorical.

@Raeder:

@calvinhobbesliker:

@Raeder:

Am I the only one who always upgrades to a Major Factory in Germany on the first turn? I never see it mentioned but to me it’s obvious. You need to be able to mobilize 10 units there.

Yes, because everyone is doing sealion right now and building a carrier G1

I see. Well, I’m not much of a Sealion guy, more of a Barbarossa guy. On G1 I’m already thinking Barbarossa.

Look at it this way. The carrier is very important to delay/defeat the initial Allied landings in Western Europe which gives you more time to capture those vital victory cities in the East. Without a carrier, the Kriegsmarine will probably go down during UK1 which leaves the entire coast wide open for the Allies.

So even if I don’t go for Operation Sea Lion (which turns out to be a self-defeating victory if you ask me), buying a carrier is still a very viable choice.

8-)

@Latro:

@Raeder:

@calvinhobbesliker:

@Raeder:

Am I the only one who always upgrades to a Major Factory in Germany on the first turn? I never see it mentioned but to me it’s obvious. You need to be able to mobilize 10 units there.

Yes, because everyone is doing sealion right now and building a carrier G1

I see. Well, I’m not much of a Sealion guy, more of a Barbarossa guy. On G1 I’m already thinking Barbarossa.

Look at it this way. The carrier is very important to delay/defeat the initial Allied landings in Western Europe which gives you more time to capture those vital victory cities in the East. Without a carrier, the Kriegsmarine will probably go down during UK1 which leaves the entire coast wide open for the Allies.

So even if I don’t go for Operation Sea Lion (which turns out to be a self-defeating victory if you ask me), buying a carrier is still a very viable choice.

8-)

Seconded!