Sealion Version 1.0

What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

@calvinhobbesliker:

What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).

@kcdzim:

@calvinhobbesliker:

What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).

Which battles don’t have a large effect on Sealion? Exclude the battle of Paris from the list of battles that have no effect

what about playing by instinct not mathematics? Not that i have a problem with math, being an engineer, it just seems like you are turning the game, or at least the first part of it, into a science.

@jim010:

Battle of France
5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks vs 7 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht

R1

att
5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 27 - 5 hits

def
7 inf, 2 art, 2 tank, 1 fht = 28 - 5 hits

R2

att
4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 22 - 4 hits

def
2 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht = 18 - 3 hits

R3

att
1 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 19 - 3 hits

def
2 tanks, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits

75% battle for Germany

That reduces the combined probability from 48% to 36%. And if Sealion has a 70% chance IF all battles succeed, then this reduces to 25%

@calvinhobbesliker:

@kcdzim:

@calvinhobbesliker:

What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).

Which battles don’t have a large effect on Sealion? Exclude the battle of Paris from the list of battles that have no effect

If you’re that curious, type it into a calculator yourself.  Jim has done all the real legwork by providing the battle odds.  And Paris WASN’T included, as I said, “per posted odds” and the battle of France had not been posted yet.  With Paris, as of that posting, odds are 36%.  And as he posted afterwards, odds decrease with each additional battle.

-begin statistics lesson-

It’s a simple product of all statistical outcomes.  For example, if you’re fighting two battles that are each 50% chance of success, you’ll win both 1/4 of the time (.5 x .5 = .25).

It’s around 50% for complete success in all seazones.  However, just because you win one battle, it doesn’t reduce your chances in the next battle.  Each chance of success is fully and completely independent.  You could roll all battles except France and win and you’re still facing a 75% success in France as your last battle which is still good odds for success.  The combined chance of success means that if you win in France, there was a 36% chance you’d arrive at that point.

Then you have a 60% chance of winning all 4 of those battles. Add to that the 70% chance of battle of London suceeding, you get 42%

It’s depressing to see the odds on the UK navy in G1.  If balance really needs to be looked at I vote for a return of the “each side gets 12 IPC pre-game to spend” that we saw in the original Europe.  Let’s say Germany/Italy has to place theirs first.  It would throw a monkey wrench in the “always do this” strategies.

Italy might buy a cruiser to try to save her fleet.  Then France gets four more inf!  Germany would be hard pressed to devote it’s air force to the destruction of the UK navy in that scenario.  There’s alot of different variations possible.

@jim010:

You have to take into account the number of dice you are throwing as well if you want to be technical, as each throw is its own event.  Also, the more dice you through in a battel, the more liely the outcome will be normalized.

Are we looking at counters to this or the odds?  I’m here to look at counters.

If something has a less than 50% chance and losing that set of moves will lose the game, then there need not be a counter.

C&H-liker

If Germany can expect to see success of a sealion in about half the games by round 3, 42% isn’t low odds, it’s actually very good odds considering the number of independent battles involved. In A&A I’d take almost ANY battle with a 75% chance of success (especially, as with G1 there are NO good counterattack options against these individual attacks), and if it meant a capital capture on the 3rd round, 70% is huge.

And even if one of the attacks fails, Germany hasn’t especially wasted anything if it can get past the first round (especially as the first turn buy is still fairly strong, strong enough to force Britain’s hand). If Germany loses a critical battle in G1, it’s unlikely Germany will try for a Sealion, but it’s not in bad shape for Russia or helping in Africa.

But if Germany gets past the round 1 gambit, the UK will probably lose to the Sealion, which means Germany should more often than not start with those moves, and based on the 60% chance of winning the attacks proposed by Jim, will more often than not invest in a navy for G3 sealion.

In about half the games, Germany will pull off a sealion per that strat. In the other games their G2 is as strong as pretty much any other and they’re not locked into anything.

Britain needs a strat to reduce the likelyhood of the 70% sealion G3 sealion, not praying for Germany to get diced on G1. Or we need verification that the Sealion strategy doesn’t have enough momentum for Russia later. Right now, @ 42%, any smart German player will do that, because I suspect there isn’t a higher percentage of success that nets THAT much for Germany in ANY other combination of moves.

42% is HUGE. not small.

I’ll take you up on it Jim, not low luck but dice.  I have some ideas, such as SZ 113 being not safe for your transports.  Other than that I’m not 100% sure of the counters.

The reason I say dice is simply that some strats that are broken in low luck, are not broken in dice due to odds of one or two important close battles.  While in the India Crush scenario this is unimportant due to the overwhelming odds, in the case of the J1 Pearl strike in oob setup it does play a huge role, to use examples.  As far as counters go I’m not really sure.  Does the US have to forces to liberate?  Can russia get nutty?  Its all up in the air a bit.

Lastly, I wouldn’t be the quickest player, mostly on weekends, usually 1 turn a day during the week but not always.  Go ahead and start one/post map if you like.