PART THREE:
I just finished the first half of part four, and realized I hadn’t written part three. Oh well.
PART FOUR:
The Allies will usually want to KGF (Kill Germany First), or KJF (Kill Japan First). Almost all games effectively end up one way or another. Again, Germany’s first move should be dependent on what Russia did.
If Russia attacked West Russia and Belorussia, and moved a tank and fighters east (especially east of Moscow), and piled infantry at Burytia, and very likely piled a few additional infantry at Ssinkiang, the Allies are clearly going KJF.
If Russia attacked West Russia and Ukraine, and fortified Caucasus (also moving fighters into Caucasus), and moved most of its infantry west, the Allies are very likely going KGF.
To respond to an upcoming KGF, Germany will want fighters, both to deal with the inevitable Atlantic fleet, and to help trade territory with Russia.
To respond to an upcoming KJF, Germany will want to build a lot of ground units to battle it out against Russia. Midgame transports in the Mediterranean can provide an added boost against Ukraine/Caucasus.
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At this point, I must make some assumptions. I must assume that the Axis have a bid, and that that bid has been placed in Libya and/or Algeria. My reasons are this:
The waters off Anglo-Egypt hold a UK destroyer, and Anglo-Egypt itself is held by infantry, tank, and fighter. If Anglo-Egypt is left alone, UK can use the Anglo-Egypt forces for a very strong India. If Anglo-Egypt is controlled by the UK at the start of its turn, UK can send its Indian fleet into the Mediterranean early. Therefore, I think it vital for Germany to destroy the Anglo-Egypt forces and capture Anglo-Egypt if possible. If Germany attacks the UK destroyer with only the German battleship and transport (the transport being used to offload units to Anglo-Egypt), there is a small but very real chance that the Germans will NOT win the battle, and the German player will have to choose between losing the loaded transport (leading to either a probably reduced German airforce as there is less fodder for Anglo-Egypt), or the quick collapse of the Mediterranean (with no German naval defense against fighters from the Caucasus).
Now, IF there is no German bid in Africa, the Germans are almost forced to move the Mediterranean fleet east, to take control of Anglo-Egypt without losing any of its valuable tanks. Still, UK can recapture Anglo-Egypt on its turn, which leads to subsequent problems for the Germans, particularly in a KGF.
IF there is a bid in Africa, though, the Germans have two good choices. Either the Germans can use the Mediterranean fleet to bolster Anglo-Egypt as usual, or the Germans can send the Mediterranean fleet west to take Gibraltar (even though Gibraltar isn’t worth IPCs, it’s useful as a fighter base). Now, if the Germans take Anglo-Egypt, they can attack with six ground units (2 from Libya, 2 from the bid placement, and 2 more from the Mediterranean transport), plus 1-2 fighters (from Ukraine-Balkans) plus 1 bomber (from German); this will leave the Germans with a strong hold on Anglo-Egypt that UK will find difficult to counterattack (even with 3 inf 1 fighter 1 bomber; inf from Trans-Jordan and India, fighter from Indian carrier, and bomber from London; the fighter and bomber land together south of Anglo-Egypt, making them collectively a bit risky for Germany to destroy). Germany will also have the option of taking Anglo-Egypt with the 2 units from Libya, 2 from the bid, plus 1-2 German fighters and the German bomber, while sending the Mediterranean navy west to take Gibraltar (threatening to unite with the Baltic fleet off Western Europe on G2). Note that sending the Mediterranean navy west to take Gibraltar also has the effect of very probably preserving the German Atlantic sub, and freeing German fighters to attack other targets than the UK battleship off Gibraltar.
If the Russian player wants to attack Ukraine, a single German infantry additional infantry at Ukraine will not necessarily deter that plan. Russia could try attacking with two of its available tanks plus sundry, and get lucky; in that case, the Ukraine-placed German infantry would have been of little use. TWO German infantry at Ukraine could be sufficient deterrent, but then Germany will not have the options with the Mediterranean described above.
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That said –
If Russia has tanks in Ukraine, those tanks must almost certainly be destroyed. However, Germany must be wary of the probable Russian counter from Russia and Caucasus. What this means is that Germany probably cannot afford to commit tanks to the Ukraine battle, because any committed German tanks would be destroyed. This seems to indicate that air is required, but there are a great number of German targets on the first turn, in a typical non-bid game. (Usually, since the Germans almost must use their battleship/transport against Anglo-Egypt, the German sub in the Atlantic is stranded, so the Atlantic sub is typically used as cannon fodder, accompanied by 3-4 German fighters, to sink the UK battleship off Gibraltar. 1 of the remaining fighters is often used as a safety for the German battleship/transport vs UK destroyer battle, the remaining German fighter and bomber are often used against Anglo-Egypt.)
So if Russia did attack the Ukraine, Germany may be best served either with transports in the Baltic (to force the UK to play defensively), pure tanks (combined with strategic bombing, to try to take Moscow very early), fighter/infantry, or fighter/infantry/tanks (for defense of the Atlantic while trading territory with Russia, using Eastern Europe as Russia uses West Russia). Germany should probably beef up quite a bit at Eastern Europe, threatening to take the northern route early (forcing the bulk of the Russian forces to retreat from Ukraine, which can then be taken in turn from Eastern Europe).
If the German fighter survived a R1 attack on Ukraine, a G1 Sea Lion (with Out Of The Box rules) is also an option.
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If Russia does NOT attack Ukraine, Germany should check other indicators to see what the Allies will do. Russia’s attacking West Russia and Belorussia really doesn’t mean much; it’s the Allied noncombat movement that will be key. If Russia moved 2-4 infantry into Ssinkiang, and/or fortified Soviet Far East or Yakut (the latter with up 9-10 infantry), those are good signs of a a KJF, particularly if Russia moved units towards India. If Russia moved units towards India, Germany may be well advised to try a couple of tech rolls for Rockets; it can be anticipated that the Allies may attempt to build an industrial complex in India, and the combined IPC damage is pretty considerable when India, Caucasus, London, and Moscow are all in range. (Note: This assumes that FAQ rules for Rocket tech and industrial bombing are in place. If those FAQs are NOT being used, and ONLY out of the box rules are used, German has the option of going V2s on London, which is basically building antiaircraft guns and going for Rocket tech, which will allow the Germans to completely shut down the UK and USSR economies quite quickly, so long as Germany can simply hold on to Germany and Eastern Europe).
It is very possible that Russia will not have really committed any units to Japan, so Germany should be wary of overambitious purchases that seek to exploit a KJF.
