Here is the statistics to determine the outcome of Strategic Bombing Raid according to these numbers:
Strategic Bomber Attack @1 Cost 10 IPCs Damage on IC: 1D6+2
Fighter Attack @2 Defend @2 Cost 8 IPCs
I provided a comparison with OOB G40, you will see that with the reduced cost SBR are still viable even if the Fighters have doubled their defense factor from D1 to D2.
From the sum, I can say that a raid with 1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D2 interceptor gives even odds (near 0 IPCs damage/run).
This new HR cost show also that escorting bomber with 1 Fg A2 gives better odds against 2 Fgs D2 than OOB G40 SBR rules.
It also show that it is better to escort the bomber with 1 Fg rather than launching 2 bombers against 2 Fgs D2.
IMO, this much better reflect the historical air supremacy role of Fighter units over Bombers.
(Something totally left aside within OOB G40 SBR rules, in which all planes get @1.)
1942.2 HR_SBR : 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor with G40 damage D6+2 and reduced StB cost
Sum: 4.583 - 1.667 = +2.916 IPCs damage/StB
OOB G40 SBR: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor/ damage 1D6+2
Sum: +4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run
1942.2 HR: 1 StB A1 Cost 10 IPCs against 1 intercepting Fg D2, Cost 8 IPCs
Sum: 4.39 - 4.444 = - 0.054 IPCs damage/StB
OOB G40: 1 StB A1 doing SBR against 1 Fg D1 / damage 1D6+2
Sum: + 4.845 - 3.666 = + 1.179 IPC. damage/SBR run
1942.2_HR: 1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2, damage 1D6+2
Sum: 3.371 - 6.296 = - 2.925 IPCs damage/StB
OOB G40: 1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPCs damage/SBR run
1942.2_HR: 1 StB A1 & 1 Fg A2 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: 8.286 - 5.540 = + 2.746 IPCs damage/StB
OOB G40: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2
Sum: +7.775 - 5.33 = + 2.445 IPCs damage/SBR run
1942.2 SBR HR: 2 StBs A1 regular cost 10 IPCs doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2 Cost 8 IPCs, damage: 1D6+2
Sum: +8.777 - 8.889 = -0.112 IPCs damage/SBR run
OOB G40: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2/StB
Sum: +10.973 - 7.334 = + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run
1942.2_HR: 1 StB A1 & 1 Fg A2 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +8.139 - 5.334 = + 2.805 IPCs damage/StB
OOB G40: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run
1942.2 SBR HR: 2 StBs A1 regular Cost 10 doing SBR Damage 1D6+2 against 1 intercepting Fgs D2 Cost 8
Sum: +10.039 - 6.111 = + 3.928 IPCs damage/SBR run
OOB G40: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: +11.459 - 5.666 = + 5.793 IPCs damage/SBR run
In this post, you can compare with OOB 1942.2 SBR and Triple A SBR for 1942:
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=33184.msg1311369#msg1311369
Here is the detailed calculations:
OOB 1942.2: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
5/6 StB survived * 3.5 IPCs = 2.9 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs
Sum: 2.9 - 2 = +.9 IPC damage/StB
OOB G1940: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
5/6 StB survived * 5.5 IPCs = 4.583 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs
Sum: 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/StB
1942.2 HR_SBR : 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor with increase damage and reduced StB cost
5/6 StB survived * 5.5 IPCs = 4.583 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *10 IPCs = -1.667 IPCs
Sum: 4.583 - 1.667 = +2.916 IPCs damage/StB
1942.2 HR: 1 StB A1 Cost 10 IPCs against 1 intercepting Fg D2, Cost 8 IPCs
StB roll /Fg roll / AAA roll
126= 12/216 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg killed: 5.56%
141= 4/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 1.85%
145= 20/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed: 9.26%
526= 60/216 StB killed by Fg: 27.78%
541= 20/216 StB killed by AAA: 9.26%
545= 100/216 both survived: 46.30%
Results:
Bombing: 120/216= 55.56% * ((1+2) +(6+2) IPCs)/2= + 5.5 IPCs) = + 3.056 IPCs
36/216= 16.67% killing Fg *+8 IPCs = + 1.334 IPC
96/216= 44.44% StB killed *-10 IPCs = - 4.444 IPCs
Sum: + 4.39 - 4.444 = - 0.054 IPCs damage/StB
1942.2_HR: 1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2, damage 1D6+2
StB roll / interceptors Fgs roll / AAA roll = odds casualties
1/620/366/6= 120/1296 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg : 5.09%
1/616/361/6 = 16/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.93%
1/616/365/6 = 80/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 9.65%
5/620/366/6 = 600/1296 1 StB killed by Fgs vs no casualty : 25.46%
5/616/361/6 = 80/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 9.65%
5/616/365/6 = 400/1296 no casualty at all : 48.22%
Results:
Bombard on IC: 480/1296= 37.04% * ((1+2) +(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.037 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 216/1296= 16.67% +8 IPCs = + 1.334 IPCs
StB killed: 816/1296= 62.96%-10 IPCs = - 6.296 IPCs
Sum: + 3.371 - 6.296 = - 2.925 IPCs damage/StB
1942.2_HR: 1 StB A1 & 1 Fg A2 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
StB+Fg rolls / interceptors Fgs roll / AAA roll = odds casualties
2/364/366/6 = 48/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs : .62%
2/3616/361/6 = 32/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .41%
2/3616/365/6 = 160/7776 1 Fg vs 2 Fgs : 2.06%
2/3616/361/6 = 32/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .41%
2/3616/365/6 = 160/7776 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 2.06%
14/364/366/6 = 336/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg : 4.32%
14/3616/361/6= 224/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 2.88%
14/3616/365/6 = 1120/7776 1 Fg vs 1 Fg : 14.4%
14/3616/361/6 = 224/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 2.88%
14/3616/365/6 = 1120/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 14.4%
20/361/366/6 = 120/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty : 1.54%
20/3610/361/6 = 200/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 2.57%
20/3610/365/6 = 1000/7776 1 Fg vs no casualty : 12.86%
20/3625/361/6 = 500/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 6.43%
20/3625/365/6 = 2500/7776 no casualty at all : 32.15%
Results:
Bombard on IC: 6060/7776= 77.93% * ((1+2) +(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.286 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 432/7776= 5.56%+16 IPCs = + 0.889 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 3024/7776= 38.89% +8 IPCs = + 3.111 IPCs
Fg killed: 2280/7776= 29.32%-8 IPCs = - 2.346 IPCs
StB killed: 756/7776= 9.72%-10 IPCs = - 0.972 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 960/7776= 12.35%*-18 IPCs = - 2.222 IPCs
Sum: + 8.286 - 5.540 = + 2.746 IPCs damage/StB
1942.2 SBR HR: 2 StBs A1 regular cost 10 IPCs doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2 Cost 8 IPCs, damage: 1D6+2
StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
1/364/3636/36 = 144/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs: 0.309%
1/3616/366/36 = 96/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.206%
1/3616/3630/36 = 480/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs : 1.029%
1/3616/361/36 = 16/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.034%
1/3616/3610/36 = 160/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.343%
1/3616/3625/36 = 400/46656 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 0.857%
10/364/3636/36 = 1440/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs 1 Fg: 3.086%
10/3616/366/36 = 960/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 2.058%
10/3616/3630/36 = 4800/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg : 10.288%
10/3616/361/36= 160/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.343%
10/3616/3610/36= 1600/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.429%
10/3616/3625/36 = 4000/46656 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 8.573%
25/364/3636/36 = 3600/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 7.716%
25/3616/366/36 = 2400/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.144%
25/3616/3630/36 = 12000/46656 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 25.72%
25/3616/361/36 = 400/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 0.857%
25/3616/3610/36 = 4000/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.573%
25/3616/3625/36 = 10000/46656 no casualty at all : 21.433%
Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 14400/46656= 30.864% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 3.395 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 23040/46656= 49.383% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +2.716 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 1296/46656= 2.778%+16 IPCs = + 0.444 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 12960/46656= 27.778% +8 IPCs = + 2.222 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 9216/46656= 19.753%-20 IPCs = - 3.951 IPCs
1 StB killed: 23040/46656= 49.383%-10 IPCs = - 4.938 IPCs
Sum: +8.777 - 8.889 = -0.112 IPCs damage/SBR run
1942.2 SBR HR: 2 StBs A1 regular Cost 10 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2 Cost 8
Damage 1D6+2
StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
11/362/66/36 = 132/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/362/630/36 = 660/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
11/364/61/36 = 44/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/364/610/36 = 440/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/364/625/36 = 1100/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg
25/362/66/36 = 300/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/362/630/36 = 1500/7776 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty
25/364/61/36 = 100/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/364/610/36 = 1000/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/364/625/36 = 2500/7776 no casualty at all
Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 3600/7776= 46.296% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 5.093 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 3600/7776= 49.296% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.546 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 2332/7776= 29.999% +8 IPCs = + 2.400 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 576/7776= 7.407%-20 IPCs = - 1.481 IPCs
1 StB killed: 3600/7776= 46.296%*-10 IPCs = - 4.630 IPCs
Sum: +10.039 - 6.111 = + 3.928 IPCs damage/SBR run
1942.2_HR: 1 StB A1 & 1 Fg A2 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
StB+Fg rolls / interceptors Fgs roll / AAA roll = odds casualties
16/362/61/6 = 32/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
16/362/65/6 = 160/1296 1 Fg vs 1 Fg
16/364/61/6 = 64/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
16/364/65/6 = 320/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg
20/362/61/6 = 40/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
20/362/65/6 = 200/1296 1 Fg vs no casualty
20/364/61/6 = 80/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
20/364/65/6 = 400/1296 no casualty at all
Results:
Bombard on IC: 1080/1296= 83.333% * ((1+2) +(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.583 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 576/1296= 44.44% +8 IPCs = +3.556 IPCs
Fg killed: 432/1296= 33.333%-8 IPCs = -2.667 IPCs
StB killed: 216/1296= 1.667%-10 IPCs = -1.667 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 72/1296= 5.556%-18 IPCs = -1.000 IPCs
Sum: + 8.139 - 5.334 = + 2.805 IPCs damage/StB