@cystic:
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Usually i play Russia Restricted, so Karelia ends up with 19 inf, 2 ftrs, and 2 arm after R1. It’s a foolish (or absolutely fiendishly brilliant) Germany who goes up against this.
OK, let me check my math (since I screwed up earlier).
You have 21 2’s, 2 4’s, and your AA in Karelia after R1.
In a MAXIMUM load against Karelia (assuming RR as you posted above), Germany brings:
11 INF, 7 tanks, 5 fighters, 1 bomber
This is ALL units in Finland, Eastern and Ukraine, plus German and Southern tanks, 2 German INF via transport, plus all fighters and the bomber.
Average AA will kill 1 fighter. Let’s say 2 just to make it interesting.
So I attack with 11 1’s, 10 3’s, and a 4.
Your defense total is 50
My attack total is 45
Advantage Russia.
But, while your attacks in the first rounds of the battle are killing my 1’s, my attacks are killing your 2’s.
the VAST majority of your defense are 2’s (33% chance of a hit) while the majority of my attack forces are 3’s, 50% chance.
Battle Round 1, I kill 2 units with INF, 5 with armor and fighter, and probably 1 with bomber.
You kill 6 with INF and amor, and probably 2 with your fighters.
Going into round 2 your defense total is down to 34
But my attack strength is still 37, now superior to yours.
Round 2 I miss with my INF (50-50 chance) and hit 5 with tanks and fighters, and again 1 with bomber.
You kill 2 with INF/Armor and 2 with fighters
So now you have blown through my cannon fodder and killed one of my tanks (of 7).
I have killed 14 of your INF.
My attack score is now 31
But your defense is down to 22.
Round 3 I kill 4 more with tanks/fighters, and the bomber misses.
You kill 1 with INF/armor, and 1 fighters (both loses either fighters or tanks)
My attack score is now 25
Your defense is down to 16
Round 4 I kill 3 with tanks/fighters, 1 with bomber. Your infantry is gone and so is one of your 2 tanks.
You kill 1 with INF/Armor, and 2 with fighters. I am taking Fighter losses to maintain ground forces for after the battle
My attack is now 16 (bomber, and a mixture of 4 tanks/fighters, your defense is 10, 1 tank, 2 fighters.
Round 5, I finish you off: 2 from armor/fighters, and 1 from bomber.
You retaliate with killing 2 more units.
So I have Karelia, with two tanks there (or perhaps a tank and a fighter flown back to Germany) and a bomber flown back to Germany.
Meanwhile, Germany did a naval landing in Caucuses supported by a battleship. That lone russian INF is gone, and I have 1 or 2 INF in Caucuses. Also, I blitzed open territory in Africa taking 3 IPC’s from UK.
Germany has 2 INF in Western, 1 or 2 in Caucuses, their Afrika Corps. 2 INF from Germany are moving into Eastern, the two tanks remain in Karelia. And my build puts 2 INF in Southern, 7 in Germany, and a tank in Germany, plus the bomber flown back to Germany. Germany gets paid PLUS 9 for 41 IPC’s
Sure, UK can re-take Karelia IF my subs fail against the UK navy, and Japan has a tough nut to crack in Yakut, but they can do it, and possibly Far East as well. USA will likely fail against Westerm and so would take Finland.
In R2, Russia builds 8 INF in Karelia, with nothing to attack with; not even to boot that German INF out of Caucuses. They get paid MINUS 7 (Caucuses, Far East, Yakut) and will only have funds to build 5 INF for R3, less bombing losses.
Come G3, Russia will ONLY have 13 INF, plus whatever UK and USA support has been moved in to defend against a German assault that could be as much as 18 INF, 5 tanks, and a bomber.
And Japan keeps marching West…