Looked at this some more, just running numbers. Considering comments by 221B Baker Street.
May be possible for Germany to fortify at E. Europe,
but its a pretty thin margin.
W. Europe needs at least 5 ground troops and 1 fighter to hold.
Transport in Atlantic carries tank, need to check Africa numbers,
but probably still favors axis.
Germany gets razor thin, but the transport avoiding the N.Sea battle
allows a reinforcement to E.Europe as well as providing additional Insulation
for Germany against a direct R1 invasion.
Post Atlantic battle, 4 fighters join in E. Europe defense and most of interior
evacuated.
With
11 inf
5 tanks
4 fighters
In Eastern Europe
this leaves 5 defense 2 units and a fighter in W. Europe,
Possibly the bomber but W. Europe is a marginal hold and has a fair chance of being taken out by the allies.
It does however provide some fairly good additional bait to entice an Allied incursion in W. Europe if that is desired.
1 tank remains in Germany, but possibly committed to either front,
still need to do some more math.
Soviets will need all 4 possible tanks available (54%), and cant attack the Ukraine
to have a favorable attack. Even one less tank creates only a 34% chance of victory.
Of course, this is carnage either way and haven’t analyzed the followups.
There is a possible mitigation factor in a R1 independent attack from Finland in Germanys first turn as it stands a 58% chance of removing an infantry creating a wider swing (at the expense of vacating finland), with just a tank 50%, might be better. This is probably a bad idea unless the odds are extremely close.
If the Soviet tanks are out of range of EE, then securing that zone for the Germans is marginally viable, potentially.
Need a one round calculator or some time working on a spreadsheet to analyze the various stafe breakdowns.
I’m guessing this is probably a very bad situation for Germany in R2 and R3 though, as the Brits would only face three fighters and that would be the bulk of the remaining German defense.
While potentially decisive, the risk factor for the Soviets may be high, with as much at stake as a R1 Karalia invasion by Germany. Will need to do some strafe calculations to see if they are likely to be opening themselves up to a serious risk of a capital crushing drive by Germany. All in all, that looks precarious, but is a consideration that I need to look at closer. My expectation is that Germany works out on the losing side of this proposition, but I need to confirm.
Tank positions may turn out to be a deciding factor in the outcome.
Fascinating, keeping me entertained for the moment anyhow.
[EDIT - Test run results]
STRAFE RISKS
Ran this out with a strong EE presence and a holding force in Western Europe. Russia tried to strafe, ended up unable to get sufficient advantage and ended up vulnerable enough to risk a counter attack. *Run was with less tanks than required, due to an attempt to provide better counter ability against the Japanese. Russia can’t afford to do that, it appears.
(I did this 1 run only to glance at a potential EE clash, not statistically significant, didn’t track details). Germany had enough to counter and take Karalia, (mixed buy R2 for versatility in mobility), survived with a small force. UK took significant air damage on the WE invasion attempt, and had lost one clearing the seas. (Note: US planes stayed on carrier earlier, couldn’t reach Karalia. Brits could have reinforced Karalia and likely held, at the risk of the fleet and either in conjunction with a better WE attack (repelled in R1), or by declining a R1 strike on Western Europe. (Hmm, maybe confusing my timeline, tired).
The second attempt at Western Europe succeded, British airforce now out of play, but committed one fighter along with a marginal counter and were able to resecure. US takes it, rolls well, has it under foot for a round. Had the counter attack failed, the Germans would be in some danger, of losing SE, but it would be too little too late for the Allies at that point (or at least up to the allies to finish it before the Axis capitalize on their early Moscow pummeling).
At any rate, Karalia wasn’t retaken, although it favored the allies were favored, iirc, small number of units, wasn’t a lock for either side, in a large part due to earlier British airforce losses. Had the recapture succeeded Moscow the survivors would have to fend off the Germans and then retake Moscow most likely.
Brits can’t really afford the AC in R2, it costs too much infantry at least if any form of Soviet aggression is considered. The Japanese rapidly demolished Asia and Russia fell very early (despite loss of one Japanese fighter which got sent to pearl harbor which was a total wipeout for both sides, allowing US to escape the Pacific). Axis still have enough in Germany to hold a while longer.
The airstrike potential against the Soviet capital again a major factor if the Russians miscalculate by any margin. The strafe risk appears high, will have to run a few more times to see how far they can safely push it. Mutual destruction appears to favor the Germans, especially if the Japanese perform well. This was with aggressive Soviet action against a very lightly held Manchuria, fall back and fight might work better. Taking Manchuria is probably fatal in general as a lot of airpower can be deployed against the survivors along with Mainland infantry.
Very easy for Asia to get crushed without additional air support, which the allies can’t really afford to provide while keeping their fleet protected. Any assistance by Soviet ground troops shifts the R2 balance on the Eastern front enough to be at least problematic.
Brits can reinforce Karalia but have to split their fleet to do it. Airpower will generally have to be put at risk to clear the seas. Germans have a fair probability of submerging their sub. Even greater chance if the Allies have to put down a surviving battleship. (Wasn’t a consideration this game). The Atlantic transport has a fair survival chance, allies can very likely have tough R1 airpower allocation issues. Baltic Sea transport is another target. Chances of something slipping through or a lost aircraft are enough to be tactical considerations.
In this engagement
Axis probably win as a result of R4
UPSHOT
Brittish fighters get very important, WE may not be a good choice, particularly after being forced to clear some sea zones to prevent casualty absorbers if the Germans elect to airstrike the fleet.
Taking E. Europe sets up the potential for a serious problem for anything resembling Russian aggression. The cost of failure is catastrophic (althoug a solid win could as easily be a game decider. Any move here is pretty much an all in move in terms of who wins the game). Requirements for fleet protection limit allied options. The allies aren’t in a position to split the fleet at an early enough juncture, particularly if the English fighters are re-allocated, or take damage.
Russian infantry may be better off, in the face of superior firepower to make a nearly full retreat to Moscow. This may give them enough manpower to survive both fronts. Tactical withdrawl appears to be the best answer unless the Japanese fold in round 1. Another alternative may be for the allies to attempt to buy time using disruption via the Kwangtung surprise and a direct Soviet assault. Both or neither. [IMO the allies can’t buy any time in Sinkiang/China without bad Japanese dice and/or sufficient reinforcements to make them vulnerable on the German front.
E. Europe in Germany round 1 might be a key asset, but balance is razor thin. Won’t take much to shift a key battle either way.
[i]Russia appears to be better off digging in on R2 rather than counter attacking in an attempt to strip German infantry, if the Germans balance their placements properly. I suspect a fairly decent chance of adequately reinforcing and protecting the Soviet capital, while wearing down the Germans, if this is done. The potential for a massive combined airstrike against Moscow is something that the allies cannot afford to overlook if the Japanese make headway.
Lots of very tough calls and Marginal decisions. Several which would be very difficult to crunch in a live game. This strategy is very unforgiving to tactical errors by either side. Unless this was a highly anomolous series of events, the Allies (as well as the Axis) need to be extremely careful in their moves to avoid a subtle shift. E. Europe/Karalia have a period of very easy odds shifting.
Due to the delicate balance in EE, the Axis might consider moving an anti aircraft gun into the zone, particularly if the British bomber becomes a casualty. This may prevent the soviets from risking their fighter in EE, and make an important difference in the potential battle situation there. If the tenuous hold on EE fails, the axis are probably cooked anyhow.
I strongly suspect a very conservative approach is favorable to the allies, minimizing the Japanese risk is probably vital. The allies cannot afford to let anything get within striking distance of Moscow before they secure Europe. A single axis infantry on any Moscow border has the potential to doom the Allies due to the greater versatility in Axis striking power, at least until such point as the Luftwaffe is otherwise leveraged.
