@EmuGod:
I still think that Japan should take China, India and Soviet East Asia on turn 1 while knocking out the fleet at Pearl Harbor. If Japan buys 2 trnsports and 3 infantry on turn 1, it can use those on turn 2 to attack either Midway or Hawaii if the US does not counter-attack or if it doesn’t succeed in defeating the fleet there. Japan can use the carrier, battleship and fighter from the Caroline Sea to attack Pearl on T1 along with the fighter from the Philippines and the sub form the Pacific. Attacking Indiea with the 2 infantry and fighter from Indo-China and the bomber from Japan should also be done, along with an assault on Soviet East Asia using 2 infantry and a fighter from Japan and the battleship there. The 2 infantry from Kwangtung, along with 2 infantry from Manchuria and the fighter there should attack China. On the non-combat move, Japan uses the transport on the Philippines to land either 1 or both of the infantry from the Pilippines at French Indo-China.
I can see you are an experienced player, but I must disagree. The odds in all these attacks are long. If you win 2 of these battles, you are likely to lose 2 as well, and that is bad.
Assuming there is only 2 INF and 1 FTR on India (in our games there is often 3 INF) , you are attacking w/ 2 INF 1 FTR and 1 BMR. The UK get 2 rolls at 2, 1-at-4. You will get 2-at-1, 1-at-3, and 1-at-4. That means the odds–while slightly in your favor–are more or less even, which means you are likely to take at least 2 hits (In my knee-jerk probability analysis). Will you lose a FTR or fail to take the territory?
What about China? There you are attacking w/ 4-at-1 and 1-at-3, where the U.S.-Supported Chinese Forces are defending at 2-at-2 and 1-at-4. You’d better hope that you score 2 hits on your first attack, or the Chinese will undoubtedly make at least 3 total hits (they may anyway) before they die, leaving you again holding a territory w/ 1 INF.
In Hawaii you will most assuredly win, with your 1-at-1 (CV), 1-at-2(plus no counter-SUB), 2-at-3 (FTRs) and 1-at-4 (BB), vs. 1-at-2, 1-at-3, and 1-at-4. But the US will practically ALWAYS score at least 1 hit at these odds, and might withdraw their SUB for a future counterattack. Assuming they’ve sunk just your SUB, they can then on their turn attack you w/ 1 TR, 2 FTR, 1 BMR and 1 BB. That’s 1-at-0, 2-at-3, and 2-at-4. They will score at least 2 hits, and you will have to lose 2 FTRs or 1 FTR and a BB (if you lose the CV, they can just rtereat and you automatically lose a FTR). Depending on how determined they are, USA may score another hit on round 2. Either way, it is now up to USA to decide whether they want to build another fleet to challenge you in the Pacific, or just build a D-Day force against Germany in the East–you have just ceded the initiative to USA.
The assault on Soviet Far East is sound, providing the Soviets have only 1 to 3 INF there (as they usually do). However if they left only 1 INF in SFE, which you destroyed w/ your BB, you are still leaving only 2 INF in SFE, 1 INF in Manchukuo, and (at best) 3 FTRs in Manchukuo. So you launch an attack against the Soviet forces in Yakut S.S.R T2. You can attack with, at maximum, 3 INF 3 FTRs and a BMR. That is 3-at-1, 3-at-3, and 1-at-4 vs. (presumably) 5-at-2. The Soviets will score either 1 or 2 hits before being destroyed, leaving your land forces in Asia in complete tatters. The Soviets will need to commit only, I’d say, 3-4 INF to prevent you from making any further inroads into their territory until you’ve had time to build up again–say 1-2 turns at best; and this is only assuming you have NOT made the attack on Midway/Hawaii you say you have planned for T2. This is not helping your German partner much.
So to recap, assuming you took India & lost a FTR there, T2 you are looking at: 2 INF SFE; 1 INF 2 FTR MANCHURIA; 1 INF CHINA; 2 INF 1 BMR F I/C BURMA; 1 INF INDIA; 3 TR 4 INF 1 ARM Japan, and maybe 1 CV Hawaii. You have indeed gained (given a little luck) 7 IPCs in Asia, but you must reinforce your units to make headway vs. the USSR and Ssinkiang, so you will basically lose a turn doing so. Again this is only assuming you have NOT made your planned Midway/Hawaii attack. Germany needs you to be WHALING on USSR by T3. What do you do…?
This is just intended as an honest critique. As I said I can see you are an experienced player and have planned this attack carefully. I am just not comfortable with 50%/50% odds unless the gains are very substantial. In a game where the Allies go for a “Germany pileup”–the worst case scenario–this plan would just not be effective. Perhaps if you knew the Allies were banking on a USA attack on the Pacific Islands it’d work, but if not, watch out!
Ozone27