If Rus stack Karelia and Germany don’t want to roll the dice sac-cing Kar, then best bet is EV. Which equate to quickly capture Africa and Asia, then, strategically (eg use the rule loophole where EV is calculated at the end of US turn), Ger try to capture the Eur-Asia to get the extra 6-9 IPC needed for EV.
I’m still trying to crunch the number for this.
Ukr & Fin are gone for Ger. Cau is out of reach. E Eur is an arm race between Rus & Ger. Basically, Ger need to build more Inf than Rus so E Eur can be held.
So Ger is left ignoring Rus T1 and concentrating on UK.
The 2 options are
- play it safe and build up in Africa (eg buy tran, non-combat 2 Inf, don’t attack Egypt), strafe all Brit navy.
- play it risky and invade both Iraq & Egypt–to capture the suez canal and swing the tran to the Red Sea.
Been crunching the number for option 2 (in fact, posted a topic for that strat). Still don’t know the prob of Axis winning–I think it was down to the 20% or less number.