Thanks for the response!
Damn the winter snow!!! Capturing Russia by Turn 4?????
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2nd ed rule board game, Russia Restricted, no other variant (eg no bidding, no 2-hit BattleShip).
Overview: UK and US need 2 turns to build up its transport fleet and another 2 turns to succssfully reinforce Russia either directly or by pressuring Europe/Africa. If the Axis can capture Russia by turn 4 or 5, UK & US won’t be able to liberate Russia, thus allowing Germany to strengthen Europe, etc and win the game.
Russia on turn 1 have 3 choices
- Defend Caucasus & Karelia,
- Abandon Caucasus and defend Karelia only,
- Get really cocky and move troop eastward toward Japan.
The 4th option of heavily defending Soviet Far East is death for Russia since Japan will wipe out all Russian troop on the Eastern Front with little loss, thus now have a free passage to Moscow.
Now, if Russia goes with #1 and say defends Cau with 5 Inf, leaving 15 Inf, 3Armor and 2 Fighter in Karelia. (1 Armor in Novo, 6 Inf Yakut, 1 Inf Soviet Far East).
Germany buy 6 Armors, save 2 IPC.
Germany will then sac everything against Russia.
Against Karelia, bridge 2 Inf W Eur and attack with 4 Armor 5 Fighter 1 Bomber. 57% Ger win with at least 1 armor & all air left with 14% Ger will still have 4 Armor.
Against Caucasus, send the BB & Trans with 2 Inf (S Eur) and 3 Armor. 89% of the time Ger win with at least 1 Armor. 56%, he win with 3 Armor surviving.
Send the W Eur sub against the E Can tran (75% kill tran)
Attack Egypt and Africa, etc. Egypt is 51% chance of capturing.
NonCombat 2 Inf into W Eur from Ger and 4 Fighter.
Move 2 Armor, 2 Inf in E Europe
Place 6 Armor, 1 Fighter, 1 Bomber in GerAfter the Germany turn, Russia have exactly nothing in Russia and only 1 Armor in Novo. UK can try to recapture Karelia with 1 Tran & 2 Inf and whatever air it like.
Japan buy IC in Manchuria & 2 Armor.
Combat weakest of China-Yakut-India.
Send only sea against Pearl Harbor.
NonCombat the Armor into Manchuria and land all air onto Asia.Turn 2,
Russia probably abandon Karelia because of the 3 Armor in Caucasus. So buy and place 8 Inf in Russia, retreating the Armor into Russia.
She’ll retreat the 6 Inf in Yakut into Novo.Germany, if still holding Karelia, buy 3 Inf and as many armor as possible. If not holding Karelia, buy all armor. At this point Germany should be able to capture Karelia with 8+ units surviving, making any recapturing attempts impossible.
Buy 5 armor (3 in Manchuria, 2 in Japan)
Japan will sac her entire air and whatever land can reach Novo.
Then noncombat 2 Armor into Machuria.
After Turn 2, she’ll have 5 Armor in Manchuria, 1 Armor and some Inf in Yakut.Turn 3, Russia can’t do jack, have very little money, possibly only enough for 4 Inf, maybe less if Germany & Japan SBR on turn 2. So in Russia is still only 12 Inf & 1 Armor plus whatever air UK & US can provide.
Germany on Turn 3 can build Inf to defend against Normandy, SBR Russia, and move the rest of the Armor up to cau. So that’s ~16 Armor and 6 Inf on Moscow doorstep.
Japan Turn 3 will SBR Russia and move the 5 armor in Manchuria as far as possible toward Moscow. At turn end, she’ll have 6 armor and some inf on Moscow doorstep.
Turn 4, Russia can’t do jack and have even less money. So will have 12-16 Inf with UK/US air.
Germany Turn 4, attack with 16 Armor & 6 Inf and all air. If she doesn’t capture Moscow, Japan will capture on her turn.
If on UK/US Turn 4 they don’t land in W Eur or E Eur, Germany then will turtle up and fortify Fortess Europa. Send land unit south via Cau-Persia. Japan can easily survive any US Pacific fleet.
I haven’t quite work out all the odd, but it look like at least 33% chance, reaching maybe as high as 50% that Axis can capture Russia by Turn 4.
What’dya think???
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It looks quite well thought out. I like a combination of “2 and 3” - i.e Russia defends Karelia aggressively, and sends a few units east to slow up the Japanese Juggernaut. Britain (and America) need to maintain a navy (and i’ve done it), and continually reinforce Karelia while building up their normandy/torch invasion fleet. The British IC in India (often poopoo’d by many experts) i like as it can also trip Japan up with a little luck and support. The American’s, if not harassing Germany, might be able to also slow Japan up by forcing it to make some defensive purchases to secure it’s sz and holdings in Asia.
I think you are correct that Russia may fall in T4, but not if America and Britain plays smartly. -
I think the 57% win for Karelia is pretty weak, you can play it, and stop the game after the first round, depending on the outcome. Where is the fun in putting all into one set of dicerolls?
Btw, have you taken into account possible hits of the AAgun?And of course, as stated here: russia mihgt try to play a “flexible response” strategy, setting up the caucasus and karelia as death-zones, putting a few defensive forces there, and keeping the main block of its units in moscow.
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:lol:
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AAA is taken into account. For 6 planes, 33% all will survive, 41% only one will die, 26% 2 or more will die.
50% is better than <10% that most say that’s the chance of Axis winning against a “good” Allies player. As I state in my other topic, I’m a newbie and have only play a handful of games, so haven’t been privy to these “expert” player. Just looking for way to Axis to win at a better than 10% against them, whenever I find them.
If Russia opt to abandon Kar & Cau with withdrawing most force into Moscow first turn, Germany doesn’t need to sac Kar. He’ll turn his full force and attention on the Brit and Africa since he no longer need to worry about defending E Eur & Ukr. He will send just enough to capture Kar & Cau (treating them as dead zone), build up inf to do an inf push toward Moscow and still have enough to drop a large number of troop into Africa along with knocking out the entire Brit navy. Methink Rus abandonning Kar & Cau on first turn is a bad bad move.
If Russia pull back from the Eastern Front (eg R1, move 2Inf to Russia, 3Inf Arm to Novo, 1 Inf Yakut, 1 Inf Far East), Jap will easily capture Yakut & Far East with Yakut as a dead zone for both Jap & Rus until Jap Turn 2, at which point, he’ll hold Yakut. This will force Rus to pull back even more, thus losing Eventl & Novo by Turn 2. With that little income, Rus won’t hold long, so there’s no need for Ger to sac Kar turn 1. Again, Germany will inf push toward Moscow in this scenario.
Wild2000 Also, going along the scenario you describe, the UK player can make up for the Russian mistakes. Since Germany did not attack the UK navy, it can counter whatever takes Karelia with 2 INF, 2-3 FTR, 1 BMB, 1 Battleship. This should be enough to at least clear Germany from Karelia, allowing Russia to retake easily.
Assuming Ger capture Kar & Cau turn 1. Brit will most likely recapture Kar on B1 (odd range from 23% against 5 Ger Unit–which is really really rare- to 99.9% against 1 Ger unit). If Brit doesn’t recapture Kar, Rus can’t since he only have one Armor in Novo to try to recapture Kar. Since prob is high that UK recapture Kar on B1, question is should Rus build in Kar. Answer is no, it’s a dead zone. Germany have at least 2 Inf & 8 Armor, plus whatever air is left. He’ll easily recapture Kar with 5+ unit left. Russia have nothing left (Jap will strafe the Rus unit on the Eastern Front). UK won’t be able to recapture Kar, etc.
Wild2000 Without excellent Axis dice and poor Allied play, it is very hard to take Moscow by T4.
Axis dice roll–don’t care, that’s what the probability analysis is for.
Poor Allied play–that’s what this forum is for, need to hear what is expert Allied play. -
:lol:
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50% sounds good on paper compared to 10%, but on paper, I rather stick with the 10%. The main reason is that too much rides on the first turn. If you take Kar T1, you’re a hero, a real bigshot. However, if you don’t, the game is over, done with. The fact that every games rest in the roll of the die means if the dice don’t roll correctly, I concede, and we set up the game board to play again. A little Monotonous?
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Pretty sure my odd calculator is okay.
See above for the odd of the air force surviving AAA.
Let’s say one die, so Ger have 11 Inf, 7 Armor, 4 Fighter, 1 Bomber. The total “attack number”–#require to hit time unit type-- is 48=>8 kills.
Russia have 15 Inf, 3 Armor, 2 Fighter with an attack number of 44=>7 kills.
Combat rd 2, Ger have 4 Inf 7 Armor 4 Fighter 1 Bomber for an attack number of 41=>7 kills. Rus have 7 Inf 3 Armor 2 Fighter for an attack number of 28=>5 kills.
Combat rd 3, Ger have 6 Armor 4 Fighter 1 Bomber for an attack number of 34=>6 kills. Rus have 3 Armor 2 Fighter for an attack number of 14=>2 kills.
Thus Ger capture Karelia with all air intact (except the one lost to AAA) and 4 Armor.Granted, this example round the kills off and that one extra or one less unit may make a big difference in combat. But I’m pretty sure of the overall odd.
Now if Russia stack 19 Inf in Karelia, I believe the odd drop to ~20% for capturing with all air intact and ~30% with 3 fighters left. Ain’t great odd, but sure is better than never winning as Axis.
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Won’t work. Germany will be destroyed, by the UK and US.
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Key word is the Allied Navy. Now granted that you can pull all available troops in Europe and hit Karelia with a super stack, you still have a good chance of winning even against 18 inf, 3 ARM, 2 ftrs. However, there’s no way that the surviving force can poke through Russia on G2, especially if the Russians have reinforced entirely with inf. This is where the Allied Navy comes in, when you busy building ARM for an invasion force and have to wait for supplementary inf to arrive on time, chances are that UK and USA will be hitting you in Western Europe or Worst Yet(!) Germany itself – game over.
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