J1 Gambit- US Variation

[questioneer]

I’ve played only one game so far but today I did a little more in-depth analysis (mainly because I have to write down some J1 moves with J2 options otherwise people are waiting on Japan all day :-))

Anyway this is this is one of the many options Japan has so lets discuss it.  Here is my best J1 Gambit- US Variation moves- you can try it, analyze it or trash it.  Looking for feedback either way.  I’ll explain some of the reasoning as I go and conclude after

J1 Gambit- US Variation

Purchase- $26- 3trn, save $5

Combat Moves

to Hawaii
 2inf, 2art from Jap via 2trn from z6 to z26
 whole navy from z6 to z26 (sub will sink US trn- free, rest of the units will attack Hawaii and take it easily)

to Phillipines
 2inf from Car and Palau via trn from z33 to z34 to z35
 whole navy from z19 to z35
 1BB, 1AC (loaded) from z33 to z35
 1bmr from Man to z35
 (1SS, 1DD, 1bmr attacks US des and 1CZ, 1BB, 2inf, 1tac, 1ftr attacks Phil)

1inf from Jehol to Chahar- free

to Anhwe- free
 1inf, 1art from Jehol
 1mec from Man
 1inf from Shangtung
 1inf from Kiangsu

(taking Chinese territory while still moving units south towards India)

1inf from Siam to Shan St- free
(important move to stop Brit planes from attcking Siam which will have some bmrs on it- read next move)

to z37 (to sink BB-automatic if you are attacking on  J1)
 1bmr from Kiangsu
 2bmr from Jap
 1ftr from Formosa
(take bomber as hit- ftr needs to defend in Siam- Noncombat all planes there)

to Yunnan
 2inf, 1art from Kwangsi
 1ftr, 1tac from Kiangsu

to Kwangtung
 3inf, 1art from Kiangsi
 1ftr from Okinawa

1inf from Kwangsi to Frindo- free

Noncombat

3bmr, 1ftr from z37 to Siam

to Kwangsi
 3ftr, 2tac from Man
 1ftr from Kwangtung
 1ftr, 1tac from Yun

5ftr, 4tac from Jap to Caroline

4inf, 1art from Man to Jehol

1inf from Korea to Man

Analysis-
Trying to maximize all Jap units yields (barring really bad dice)- capture Hawaii, Phil, sinking Brit BB, Chinese gains while moving south, Halt ANZAC, UK, and US National Obj, Japan income= 26 + 8 (US gains) + 4 (UK gains) + 2 (French) + 3-4 Chinese bucks = approx. 42-46 dollars.

At the same time you cut off nearly all naval and air threats for at least a couple of rounds if not more and you have transports ready to ship a ton more ground units to the south.  If US retalites at Hawaii sea zone, they will pay for it- chances are they will sit and build.

Many lethal options for J2- prediction, China dead by round 4-5, India round 6-7.  Japan may have to back off of Hawaii by the time an India take down occurs.  Showdown with US in a fight for ANZAC/Hawaii.

[questioneer]

There is also a similar variation of this that I call the J1 Gambit- ANZAC Variation

I will make a thread for this also.
:-)

[tloger]

Negate the sub on tranny, the combat in the seazone denies you the use of your BB and Cruiser shore bombardment.  2 inf and 2 art vs. Bomber, Fighter, Tac, and 2 inf is not a favorable battle.  Its 8 die pts. vs. 12 die pts.  In order to take Hawaii you absolutely need the shore bombardment.

[questioneer]

Correction:

Cross out Phillipine attack and sub these in for Haw attack and add Celebes

Combat Moves

to Hawaii
  2inf, 2art from Jap via 2trn from z6 to z26
  whole navy from z6 to z26- sink trn- free
  2ftr, 2tac attack Haw
  1des from z33 to z26

to Celebes- free
  2inf from Car and Palau via trn from z33 to z34 to z44
  1AC (loaded) from z33 to z44

to z35
  whole navy from z19
  1bmr from Man

Rest is the same

[questioneer]

Sorry just seen some other major flaws- scratch it- gotta rethink this one- sorry guys :-( :|

[shohoku201]

I believe I discussed the idea of invading Hawaii on J1 in detail previously.  My analysis of this invasion was that Japan needs to use all three of its transports carrying 3 Infantry, 2 Artillery and not conduct a naval battle in sea zone 26 (don’t attack the transport) in order to use the shore bombardment from your 2 Battlehips and 1 Cruiser.

Japan attacks and rolls 2 x 4s, 1 x 3, 4 x 2s, and 1 x 1 hitting at 3.3.  USA defends and rolls 1 x 4, 1 x 3, 2 x 2s, and 1 x 1 hitting at 2.0.  In round 2 of Japan’s attack, Japan rolls 3 dices instead of 8 in the first round (2 casualties in round 1 of attack and no more shore bombardment).

On average rolls, Japan comes out victorious with 1 remaining artillery.  Without the extra infantry from Caroline Islands, the battle would favor USA holding Hawaii.

[Vareel]

And since you end your CM in that SZ with an island containing an airbase, they can scramble 1 tac fighter to rob you your shore shots,  not sure how that changes the odds though.

[oztea]

US can scramble a fighter to negate ALL bombardment on Hawaii, japan can ignore transports, you cant ignore scrambled fighters however.

scrableing the tac bomber removes a wound and a roll at 3 for the defense, but stops upwards of 3 bombardments at 3 and 2 bombardments at 4.

[RJL518]

ill be honest…i find a Jap Turn 1 attack really doesnt get Japan into position to win the game…i guess if you get the dice u need…it could happen…so far my turn 1 attacks arent really doing it…even though the UK and USA get into better position to defend Japan later and a few more IPCs…i still think a turn 2 or turn 3 attack gives Japan a better chance to win…but then again…my dice rolls suck anyway…LOL

[dinosaur]

The defense of scrambling one Tac bomber is a total win for the US.  If they do scramble the Tac, Japan loses the chance to shore bombard with two battleships and one cruiser.  The one turn statistics on that single event show the US player has made the right decision.  2@4 + 1@3 = 22%-3 hits, 44%-2 hits, 28% 1 hit, 6 % no hits  Only 6% of the time is the US losing anything on the decision, and 28% of the time they break even, since the first hit could be understood to be the loss of the Tac anyway.  I haven’t analyzed the whole battle, but someone has already said it is less than 50% for the Japanese to take the H-I if the US player scrambles a plane.

[questioneer]

@shohoku201:

I believe I discussed the idea of invading Hawaii on J1 in detail previously.  My analysis of this invasion was that Japan needs to use all three of its transports carrying 3 Infantry, 2 Artillery and not conduct a naval battle in sea zone 26 (don’t attack the transport) in order to use the shore bombardment from your 2 Battlehips and 1 Cruiser.

According to the rules though, if a capital ship even “enters” the sea zone the lone transport is “automatically destroyed” and constitutes as the “sea combat” pg. 31- so even the battleship and crusier cannot participate.  This doesn’t happen however when “only transports” enter the sea zone with lone enemy transports/submarines (non-capital ship.  With that an attack on Hawaii in would look like this:

to Hawaii
  2inf, 2art from Jap via 2trn from z6 to z26
  1inf from Car via 1trn from z33 to z26

planes can’t scramble because…

there is no sea combat (transports [non-capital ships] just ignore lone transport and offload

However no planes from anywhere can make it to the attack via movement capabilities.

OR…

you can bring a good amount of ships into z26- a combination from z6 and/or z33, sink the transport which is “automatic” according to the rules (at this moment you would be at war with the US), and “tempt” the US to possibly scramble leaving the defense of their Hawaii to 2 lone infantry- chances are they won’t risk that.  But anyway you lose the bombardment the moment you bring in any capital ships.  So I believe the best attack you can bring to Hawaii on J1 in the above Combat Move.

The probable scenario would be 3inf, 2art against 2inf, 1tac, 1bmr, 1ftr, a 5-5 count with a punch of 7-12 in favor of the US- that would make an attack on Hawaii suicide in a J1 gambit.

Time to focus on the J1 possibilities for a Phillipine attack instead (coming soon)…

[james_88]

taking hawaii first tirn is only about a 20% chance, even with all 3 transports. because you have the choice to ignore the transport and get your bombardment you still cant because a smart player will scramble the tac fighter to stop the offshore and then its just a roll off and I have rolled it 10 times and only won it 2 times. and if you try to take it second turn with your three new transports he can fly one fighter against to stop bombardment again. You cant use any air support untill second round. you might take it second turn but at what cost, india gets huge and china as well.

Also the second time you attack hawaii it could have all america’s planes and all anzacs planes and when you chose  to attack with your planes on the island he sends all planes against your navy almost undefended, at best 3 des, 1 crus, 3 car, (with no attack), and 2 battleships vs 6 fighters on defence and 1 tac fig.  this hurts the japs just way to much you fight one round and are forced to retreat and are then forced to limp back to a friendy port. And If you take you carr’s as hitts you sacrafice all 6 planes and your navy still gets a beating, so now you have plus 5 and america with 56 plus 5 for plil on your door step. Not a good move as far as I have seen. havent tried the attack first round on the anzac but seems like something I wouldn’t mind trying.america

[james_88]

it says in the rull book that you can ignore transports and subs as they have no zone of control, and you can scramble whenever you want, you are creating a naval conflict.

[questioneer]

@james_88:

it says in the rull book that you can ignore transports and subs as they have no zone of control, and you can scramble whenever you want, you are creating a naval conflict.

yes, but not if you are the US because you can’t attack Japan until after turn 3 or when Japan initiates war.

[Vareel]

And by doing a combat move at pearl they are declaring war  :-D

Now you also can only scramble when someone ENDS a combat move into the SZ so they do not ‘block’.

[questioneer]

If you are moving into Hawaii with ONLY Jap transports you can ignore the transport there and just unload.  Scrambles are only for defending a sea zone.  However no battle is occuring in the sea zone- no naval battle- at that point there is no declaration of war so therefore the US CAN’T scramble.  Only after unloading the Jap transports is there an official declaration of war.

Either way the Japanese do not have sufficient material to attack and take Hawaii- it is a suicide mission and now considered a “dead” move or non-strategic move.

[questioneer]

@Vareel:

Now you also can only scramble when someone ENDS a combat move into the SZ so they do not ‘block’.

explain please- what page and section is this on in the rulebook???

[Vareel]

@questioneer:

If you are moving into Hawaii with ONLY Jap transports you can ignore the transport there and just unload.  Scrambles are only for defending a sea zone.  However no battle is occuring in the sea zone- no naval battle- at that point there is no declaration of war so therefore the US CAN’T scramble.  Only after unloading the Jap transports is there an official declaration of war.

Either way the Japanese do not have sufficient material to attack and take Hawaii- it is a suicide mission and now considered a “dead” move or non-strategic move.

If a combat move ends in a sea zone containing an airbase with planes that can scramble, then they have the option of scrambling to defend the sea zone.  Kreighund said it somewhere, I do not recall where specifically though.

Furthermore, the moment ANY combat move is made that would result in war, war rules are in effect and are retroactive for ALL combat moves made in that turn.  Meaning, if there was a US destroyer in SZ 25 you could not, under any circumstances, move a transport from SZ 6 (japan) to SZ 26 (pearl) and unload it to invade Hawawi as there is an enemy ship in the way.  You could, in one turn, move the transport, then on the following unload it to attack and declare war then, but you could not do it all in one turn.

edit: these are the posts if you wish to review them to confirm what I have said.

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=16114.msg539117#msg539117
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=16119.0

[questioneer]

The second link you sent seems to apply- thanks for clearing this up.  I was rereading the parts in the rule book and it is very unclear and contradicting when talking about the “scrambling” and the “amphibs”

So then even a combat move with no sea combat that results in a amphib is still grounds for scrambling.  I’ll tell Kreighund to clear this up in the FAQs because it is worded very badly.

thanks
:-)