Yes over time the Allies would dominate production capacity as the war went on. If the US wasn’t involved the war would be even or maybe a slight advance for Axis. With the US involved, the only way for the Axis to win was with early key victories- Midway, Barborossa, SeaLion were just some of the major failures the Axis had to win in order for them to secure a quicker decisive victory- actually I think it would have been an armstice at best- but the war would have gone on a lot longer anyway.
If Germany would’ve succeeded in sacking Moscow, it could have been a longer war or an armstice. If Japan would have won Midway or Guadalcanal- the war would have lasted longer etc. I think the game at least introduces these themes along with the tech and NOs. Remember, espionage, technological reasearch and such played a huge role and further aided the Allies greatly in the war.
There are many more factors than just the straight “numbers” that go into measuring % chances of each side winning- I think the game presents those possiblities. The more I study WW2, the more I am convinced that the Axis could have won if they had made some wiser decisions. They had the iniative in the beginning and lost it as the US got involved and some of their strategic planning went south.
AA puts you in the pilot’s seat and allows you to make those some decisions or try to find some better ones- rewrite history- debating aside that what makes the game great. Military initiative vs. Economic dominance in the longrun. :-)