@LT04:
I love this topic but I have a quick question…
Why doesn’t the math work both ways? What I mean by that is if you steepen the curve with your attack hits to get the “average” hits instead of the “expected” hits why doesn’t the same rule apply when calculating the enemy defense hits?
That would make your estimate a lot more conservative.
LT
I does do the same with defense hits. It is just that in the scenario he mentioned there was only 1 unit so the odds are simple - 33%. If there were more units in defense you would have to do the same thing. However, generally there are more attacking units than defending units, because the attacker would not do a battle that he would lose. So, this makes the number of hits the defender gets roughly the average since the attacker almost always has => the defender units.
