Operation Sealion On Turn One!

[Bumatank]

How many of you have ever seen Germany actually pull off “Operation Sealion” on G1? My Axis partner and I pulled it off in our last gamming meeting this past weekend. Our group always plays Russia Restricted and the Soviet Navy did not move into the North Sea thus leaving the door open for the massive air raid on England supported buy the Baltic transport and two U-boats. At the end of turn 1 we had a “Schultz” waltzing down Downing Street with a U-boat and transport sitting off the Thames estuary! Needless to say the Allies were stunned!!! Not only were we sitting pretty in England but the first half of Africa was a Nazi playground and my Japanese partner was rageing all over the Pacific. There was not too much they (the Allies) could do after turn two when a stack of Germans was sitting in England, Karela (sp) had fallen to an onslought of Panzers, and Africa, India, China, and Alaska were all firmly in our grasp! It was all over buy the end of turn three when we reached and held 84 combined IPC’s for the economic victory.

This was a game for our record book no doubt! My question is, and there is a question behind my ego rattling, how often will chance let this happen? The UK player did have some pretty bad rolls, but what are the odds that when the tables are turned they do it to us? Is there anything else that could be done besides reinforceing England from Russia in turn one?

Thanks for any replies and ideas, you guys rock the A&A word and a heartfelt thanks for this sight!

[Guest]

So you are telling us that Germany, assuming the UK SZ is cleared, took the UK with a battle of 2 INF, 2 FTR, 1 BMB vs 2 INF, 1 ARM, 2 FTR, 1 BMB, AA gun and won? Talk about an all or nothing battle. The odds are stacked way in UK’s favor. In the vast majority of cases, Germany falls flat on its face and ends up loosing the majority of its airforce. Game over for the Axis.

First round (assuming no AA hits), Germany gets 2 hits (12 PIPs) to Uk’s 3 (15 Pips). Germany has to save 1 INF so its now 1 INF, 1 FTR, 1 BMB vs. 1 ARM, 2 FTR, 1 BMB.

Second round, Germany get 2 hits (8 PIPs)(lets be generous) to UK’s 2 (11 PIPs). Now its 1 INF vs. 1 FTR, 1 BMB

Need we go on?

Not a good move. It may have worked this time, but 9 times out of ten, it looses the game for the Axis.

[Bumatank]

It was two fighters, one bomber, and the transported two Inf. VS the English and the English did roll a crappy AA round, not a single hit! The only thing that was lost in the sea battle was one U-boat, and on land we lost one fighter and one “Schutz.” The poor English player could not get a good roll to save his behind that night.

The Axis were on a roll on the entire board that night I must say!

[cystic crypt]

I think that Guest has nicely outlined a good reason why NOT to try this “tactic”.
I see little point for a first turn operation sealion. If you win - then the game is over VERY quickly for the allies (as you say - round 3, however if i’m the allies - i call it - i’m not stupid). IF you lose, then chances are you lose the game. To be honest, i’m not interested in playing the allies and winning a game based on such flagrantly stupid odds in my favor (i.e. the combined might of the allies vs. such a hamstrung Axis).

[MuthaRussia]

It’s true the strategy relies on luck, but if you win that battle you can count on the allies losing, i think its worth risking.

“There’s no victory without luck.”
-Erwin Rommel

[UKcommander]

Don’t worry, when I posted that the exact same thing happened to me, I was shut down too :D .

[Guest]

thats gotta take some guts to attack britan on G1!! I tried once and failed so bad that I was fighting to restart the game. Its way to risky, I would wait at least until i had another transport.

[cystic crypt]

my point is why try that on turn 1??
i guess if you are only playing to win, then . . . it’s still a bad idea. But as i said - suppose you DO take the UK in the first turn. The game is virtually over. Really - there is nothing for the allies to do but cry. Only the most masochistic would play it out (or brilliant - realizing that you’re a fool to try that figuring you’d spend all of your money on candy).
So i can see a Sunday afternoon getting my friends over for a once in a 2 month game, some bozo trying Sealion, succeeding, and then the rest of us saying "ummm . . . ok, good game guys. Same time next February?

[M-4_Sherman]

CC is right, the game is basically over. although it is possible for the allies to reurn to glory. i was playing a game where the german player did sealion on G2 after taking karelia. i pupmed all my funding into holding Russia. while the Brits took their trannie from canada and went island hopping in the pacific. by the time i sent the americans over to attak the UK. the british troops had raised their IPC level to 51. once i lost the 2 troops on the trannie, i went and picked up the afican troops and the india troops later. although i will admit i had some outstandingly lucky rolls.

[C_F]

You have about a 10% chance of winning this one and then you will only have one infantry left. From what I have heard the axis only win about 5% of the time if you are playing without bids. So if victory is all you care about then go ahead. However, even if you do take it, there is a good chance that the allies could take it back.

The German airforce and navy was used to clear out the battleship and sub, which means that the Gibraltar battleship might have made it. Combined with the E. Canada transport and armor it gives the UK a slim chance at liberation.

If the they can’t do it then the US can send the bomber and two infantry. The bomber to clear the navy and the two infantry to attack the one German defender.

Then Russia can send their transport with two infantry and the sub and fighters to clear any navy.

The allies will probably be able to retake it, but it should not matter. Germany should have bought 10 infantry on G1 and saved 2. On G2 they can buy about 25 infantry with the money kindly provided by the UK. On G3 purchase 6 or 7 armor. So on G4 they can smash Russia in Karelia.

I would say if you are going to do this, just get the money, leave, go smash Russia.

However, all of this is provided that Russia is dumb enough not to move the tranport and sub on R1 and Germany gets extremely lucky when it invades the UK.

[MistaBiggs]

@C_F:

You have about a 10% chance of winning this one and then you will only have one infantry left. From what I have heard the axis only win about 5% of the time if you are playing without bids. So if victory is all you care about then go ahead. However, even if you do take it, there is a good chance that the allies could take it back.

The German airforce and navy was used to clear out the battleship and sub, which means that the Gibraltar battleship might have made it. Combined with the E. Canada transport and armor it gives the UK a slim chance at liberation.

If the they can’t do it then the US can send the bomber and two infantry. The bomber to clear the navy and the two infantry to attack the one German defender.

Then Russia can send their transport with two infantry and the sub and fighters to clear any navy.

The allies will probably be able to retake it, but it should not matter. Germany should have bought 10 infantry on G1 and saved 2. On G2 they can buy about 25 infantry with the money kindly provided by the UK. On G3 purchase 6 or 7 armor. So on G4 they can smash Russia in Karelia.

I would say if you are going to do this, just get the money, leave, go smash Russia.

However, all of this is provided that Russia is dumb enough not to move the tranport and sub on R1 and Germany gets extremely lucky when it invades the UK.

You are correct C_F! There is a good chance that the Allies could retake it before G2 and GER should concentrate on taking out RUS after “Operation Sealion” – but, it could also use the UK-provided ipcs to revamp it’s navy too (although, I’m with you – take out RUS).

Except I think the odd’s are higher for the Axis to win (even w/o bids, RR, or Axis Advantage). I was under the impression that it was around 35-40% chance of axis victory.

[CasualPlayer]

Running the numbers…
Attacker (max that can reach Britain): 2 fighters, 1 bomber, 2 inf
Defender: 2 Inf, 1 tank, 2 fighters, 1 bomber, 1 AA

Attacker elects to save a ground unit to take the territory, success rate 7.1% +/- .1%

Attacker doesn’t keep a ground unit, success rate 10.2% +/- .1%

I suppose this is a good move if you don’t intend on playing for very long and don’t particularly enjoy winning.

[debater12587]

Wow: 7.1% odds. Now, the time it would take to play 14 of these games is the same as one or two standard games, but still, just go for Russia. Hitler WAS right to attack the Soviets instead of the Brits. Then again, Russia would have probably betrayed Hitler if Operation Sealion had actually happened . . .

[Guest]

If I were doing this, I would first sink all my money into weapons development. If you get heavy bombers and/or long range aircraft it will greatly increase your odds. And if you fail on both counts, you’ll lose quickly.

[Bumatank]

Some of you had possed the question of why “operation sealion” on turn G1? My answer to this is “Why not?” Your best and probably only chance to sack Britain in my mind is on G1. After turn one the smart British player will have made his little island into a fortress. Yes, even I realize that it was a all or nothing throw of the dice, but what the heck? I have nothing to prove to my fellow gamming brethern, I really was’nt playing to win this round. Just thought I would try an idea none of us in my game circle have had the guts to try before. Yes, “operation sealion on 1” does make for a short game either way it comes out, but hey, we still had enough time that night to roll a game of “Shogun”. Needless to say the Allied players from A&A teamed up against me and my Axis compaion and one of them became Shogun of the Japanese Island! Ahhh, sweet revenge!!!

[CasualPlayer]

Usually, people play to win. And giving the game up to 7.1% chance (assuming the naval battle goes completely your way) isn’t a good bet, nor does it lead to a fun game.

[kyrial]

There’s all or nothing and then there’s this…

I personally think it’s a really tough gambit to go Sealion on G1. As has been pointed out above, there is a possibility for the Allies to take back England before G2, thus making the only real results the capture of all British money and the lack of such funds for UK1. BUT, Germany will not have the ability to invade again on G2 so the US can hold the island with 1 INF and be secure until UK2 when they’ll have some money back.

It IS a terrible setback for the Allies; it forestalls any UK defense of India, allows Germany to send a significantly larger army against Russia much earlier than expected (the extra 30 IPCs) and there is no help with the British fighters for the USSR either against Germany or against Japan.

However, it is not a guarantee of victory… the Allies are still strong enough economically to hold and if the US can get things rolling early they can stem the tide. If, however, Germany loses (which is as has been pointed out about 90% of the time give or take) it is der kaput for ze Germans. There is really no way that Germany can recover from the loss of the aircraft that it so desperately needs in order to hold out defensively long enough for Japan to get rolling in the East.

All in all, Germany should stay away from Sealion for the same reasons in game as they did in RL: the inability of the German navy to get significant enough amounts of troops to make invading and holding worthwhile. Rather, concentrate on Russia with hit-and-run tactics using the armour in order to keep softening them up while Japan whittles away in the east until you can go after Karelia.

Don’t throw away Axis air power!!! :D

[M-4_Sherman]

kyrial wrote:
There is really no way that Germany can recover from the loss of the aircraft that it so desperately needs in order to hold out defensively long enough for Japan to get rolling in the East.

this is eaiser than it sounds. execut an all fronts attack on asia. attack Sinkian, India, Soviet Far East w/ 2 INF via trannie from Japan, bring the Japan fighter/bomber. and send ships to Pearl. you probably wont have much left where you win. but the allies wont have anything there to counter you, with the exception of russia. but this can be averted with a few quick strikes by germany to draw Russian Troops away from the east.

[kyrial]

M-4, I agree you can forestall things somewhat by going all out on J-1 because it’s true there really isn’t too much that the Allies can throw at Japan at least not right away.

However if Germany has gambled and lost, she has no aircraft left which means I don’t have to worry about transports at all which means I can basically leave transports off the coast of WEu or anywhere else without fear of retribution. This, I feel, enables the US to start shucking to Africa quicker, which reduces the majority of German IPC gains from G1-G2, and puts Germany in the hole all the quicker.

As for the Japan all out on J-1, yes its feasible but the problem is that if in one place or more you get bad rolls you are really in the hole and it’s tough to execute an all out attack on all of these places and win in all of them, or even just knock out defending troops. I still feel that Russia can launch a counter in the east, especially not having to worry as much about German troops because if Germany is smart they are bulking up their western front as well.

I think we all can agree on one thing: the operation is a HUGE gamble that will basically turn the game one way or another.

[M-4_Sherman]

its basically a way to play it out if you dont want a super long game. the way everyone plays just drags the game out too long sometimes. dont get me wrong though, i love a good contest. this is just something new to try that i havent noticed many people considering before