Posts made by Arthur Bomber Harris

I definitely would have sent the battleship to 110 to soak up plane hits instead of the subs. I disagree though that it was a bad choice to do the SZ110 + SZ111 attack: Booper had about a 7% chance of winning this match based on ELO differences so an audacious/game-changing turn 1 is often necessary to change the odds to something better than 7%.

Here is the odds for the net planes lost (10 German vs 5 Allied scramblers)

45% disasterous (-1 relative planes lost)
20% not good (0 to +1 plane outcome)
25% good (+2 to +3 plane outcome)
10% amazing (+4 to +5 plane outcome)

Sadly for Booper, he got -3 plane outcome which made this game a Loss on G1, but I think he would have had a reasonable chance of winning in the 35% of outcomes where he gains 2 or more planes in the exchange, and would have a net increase of his expected win rate on average.

@gamerman01 let’s see what happens.

When I battled against Andrew and Farmboy in past years, I only was able to win with audacious gambles and copious amounts of dice luck including invincible bombers. They both are quite a bit better than me, and I have a feeling that the dice lords will smile on them this year after some previous bad luck.

@farmboy I doubt we will finish this year. I still am in a very close match with GeneralDisarray they could stretch on for quite a long time. He is playing well, and the outcome is undecided. the game likely will stretch into the Fall, and that is just the first round of this playoff.

@AndrewAAGamer this year we have a much harder oob playoff bracket than the previous couple of years. I would wager that the winner of your Farmboy/Andrew quarterfinal will probably win the tournament. So much competition!!!

I am excited to watch the new strategies in your match, and assume the dice gods willl probably be the deciding factor in the close battle.

Congrats Farmboy! You are so masterful in these playoff games. Impressive performance on both sides of the map.

sorry, so many non-combat edits…

@Corperal-Siggy-F option 1: stand outside of Moscow while slowly building up ground trips. Germany should be able to gain 10 ground units a turn plus a couple planes. Russia can’t keep up and eventually gets overwhelmed. That happens on G7 without Allied assistance, and inevitably around G13 even with the best aide.

Option 2: head down to the oil fields and boost the German economy. Threaten Egypt and India, forcing more defensive spend by the UK powers.

Option 3: launch a surprise sealion attack around turn G10 if the Allies have been too focused on defending the Eastern front and haven’t invested enough in the Atlantic.

The Germans should getting 70 PUs a turn around G6, meaning that they out-earn Russia plus UK combined. If the United States focuses on Europe instead of the Pacific, Berlin can be forced to play more defensively so pivot to a game plan where Japan achieves victory.

You should be able to win 90% of the time with the Axis but sticking to these fundamentals.

@Faramir the game would be approximately balanced if Japan couldn’t DoW until j4, allowing India and Anzac to grab some islands and escape with their transports before the fighting begins. Still probably an advantage for the Axis but much closer.

@bakerbei by the time you have played the game a dozen or more times, you should pick Axis 100% of the time if the bid is in the 20s. With that type of money, the Allies can generally choose two of the following items for their money: protect one of the starting UK Atlantic fleets, accelerate control of the Med, accelerate conquest of Africa, or slightly slow down Axis progress in Russia or Asia.

None of those are so game changing that it prevents the Axis from a standard focus of overwhelming Moscow, drive into the Middle East oil fields, and conquest of India (usually 2 out of 3 means a win. No masterful gameplay is required if you have spent a bit of time understanding the standard openings (J1 DoW in the Pacific and a conservative G2 or G3 DoW plan in Europe).

By turn four, you should be able to look at the map and say this is going down the road for inevitable Axis victory unless you had bizarre dice in one of the few pivotal battles in the early turns (Paris, Yunnan, etc) that might happen 5-10% of games.

Congrats PB!

same scramble question, but I changed other parts of my turn.

scramble?

@abh

@axis-dominion my brother has joined!

that scramble worked out for you. How about here?

@tmartin the crazy thing is that the game doesn’t feel that much different even with ~40PU bid. The Allies will more easily control the Atlantic, Med, and Africa. China will be more difficult to exterminate. Moscow will survive for a few more turns.

Otherwise the Axis can proceed as normal with India and Moscow eventually falling due to the overwhelming power of Axis air power.

The game changes dramatically at 60 PUs when China becomes so powerful they can drive Japan off of mainland Asia (or least credibly threaten that).

US10.tsvg

intercept?

Thank you so much Mikawa for showing me PtV. This was my first match and I truly enjoyed it. There are so many more options than G40. The Axis capturing and holding Africa was such a game changer for the income.

I made many mistakes and hopefully will play better the next match. Your defense of the Middle East was spectacular.

@mikawagunichi and probably an axis victory if the attack fails…

@mikawagunichi no preference

quite average dice… nice to have London for a turn.