Short version: G1 1 x bomber gains do not adequately compensate for loss of G4+ loss of 4 infantry.
Thank you, you’ve been a great audience.
. . . no?
Fine, let’s get on with it. R1 4 inf 3 art (I won’t get into how apparently meta likes 4 inf 2 tank) 12 W Rus 9 Ukr.
W Rus 9 inf 2 art 1 tank vs 3 inf 1 art 1 tank, we say attacker 3 hits defender 2 hits, then attacker 2 hits defender 1 hit, average 6 inf 2 art 1 tank survive.
Ukr 3 inf 1 art 3 tank 2 fighter vs 3 inf 1 art 1 tank 1 bomber 1 fighter. We say Axis go bomber-fighter OOL; round 1 attacker 3 hits / defender 3 hits; round 2 attacker 3 hits / defender 2 hits / then we say attacker presses on for Reasons, attacker inflicts last hit while defender gets one more hit; USSR has 1 tank 2 fighters, and yes I know that’s not how it often works out but whatever. Ballparking it.
Saying the Novo infantry moves to Moscow, and counting AA guns and fighters that’s 15 units at Moscow/Caucasus or points west. And we say R1 we’ll add 2 more infantry from Evenki (because on Archangel they pressure Karelia), then R2 1 more, R3 4 more (plus the Kazakh infantry makes it back). Then we account for build; we say 7 per turn through R3 then 6 a turn from R4. All infantry equivalents on defense (that is, infantry and artillery).
The Numbers (More or Less, Sort Of)
Yes, horrible oversimplification. But end of R1 that’s 24, R2 32, R3 44, R4 50, then R5+ 6 per turn, and we can add 2 UK fighters per turn and 1 US fighter initial, plus some discretion.
**Bleed / Build **
USSR wants to bleed out Germany; Germany wants to bleed out USSR. But if that’s true, then what happens if USSR tries multi-stack “pressure” against Germany? That is, put four infantry on Karelia, 4 infantry on Ukraine, that sort of thing?
Answer is, USSR loses. Germany has more air so does better on trades. Plus Germany doesn’t have to accept any given battle, and Germany can stack defense on territory of its choice with tanks. That generally means, USSR can and should bleed off minimally to trade, but trying to expand the rate of bleed just leaves USSR at a disadvantage.
Conversely, what if Germany tries to multi-stack? Maybe we say Germany comes out a little ahead in the short term, but in KGF Germany really doesn’t want to trade with anyone; it wants to stack defense.
So assuming KGF, both USSR and Germany want to keep trades light. Can’t not trade; that just surrenders territory without fighting for it, which locks that income away, and since the early stacks are in direct competition that’s just not working out well for anyone.
So we chop 5 infantry equivalents a turn for each side. Again, making assumptions, but whatever.
So what are Germany’s reserves? Totting up everything left in Europe it’s 38 units. Say Germany strips 2 out to dump to Trans-Jordan, that leaves 36, but not all those 36 can pressure West Russia right away. But let’s say Germany gets there in the end.
Germany production is at 13 units, again takes a while to get there. Let’s say the G1 build reaches Karelia on G3, and by then all the rest of Germany’s units in Europe can reach Karelia too. So we set that as our base.
G3 49 units against R3 44. But then, we’re thinking about stuff like UK2 build dumping to France on UK3; US1 build can reach on US3 too. So then, let’s say Germany holds just 5 infantry back. Maybe more. Maybe less. Uses some fighters. Whatever.
In all this, what happens if UK builds fighters to drop to West Russia? There’s the greedy UK1 Atlantic fleet build, there’s the less greedy UK1 London fighters build, both combine with 3 ground units on India. But regardless, we can figure maybe another 4 UK fighters, 1 US fighter, maybe more.
Then it starts to make sense, you see players writing about J3 timings on India, and here’s a G3 push into Karelia, right? See how the timings synchronize a bit? And if the Axis really lean into it, that’s where the pressure breaks down; Allies want to defend both territories and one may expect one or the other to have to give. Like, really.
But let’s say Allies did the fighter to West Russia thing. And let’s really think about the G1 build; if Germany mobilized 10 units on Berlin and 3 on Italy, will those 3 Italy units really push Karelia on G3? Of course not. Because the Italy units march to Berlin on G2, so only reach Karelia on G4, along with the G2 Berlin build.
And it’s right about then that USSR’s feed of troops from east Asia starts tapering off.
Playing fast and loose a lot, but again, base G 49 vs R 44; we deduct 3 units for the Italy deploy, another 5 for France, and boost West Russia by 4 fighters. It just does not look good for a G3 attack into West Russia (actually 4 of the USSR infantry are on Archangel but whatever). Regardless, Germany shouldn’t really be in a position to threaten gains.
But G4, another 13 units join at Karelia. And that is kind of a lot. Plus Germany’s G4 build can include fighter(s) which add to the threat on W Rus and also pressure Allied drops to Med.