The Rule of Averages

House Rules is House Rules and how you guys wanna play the game is up to you.

However, I personally would REALLY not like the rule because it tampers a little too much with the basics of the game. Sure, A & A is about stacking the odds in your favor where possible, but a lot of our most memorable games have hinged on a REALLY RISKY battle, that either succeeded or failed largely on luck. Dice rolls can be frustrating sometimes, but in a wierd way I think it actually ADDS to the tenuous realism of the game–throughout history, generals (including WWII generals) have tried to bring about circumstances in which a battle could be faught in their favor: but plans go awry; a single sentry could be asleep at his post, a single plane might make it through, a secret communique could somehow end up in enemy hands, a single platoon could hold out against overwhelming odds–in the chaos of battle, even small events can have a profound effect.
I think the element of chance is a vital part of the game.

On another level, I think your solution to the “chance” element needs to be tweaked a bit to be workable–rolling the dice and deciding whether to reroll or let stand on the basis of a hazy concept of “more or less likely” is gonna be bad news–it will lead to arguments. Also, how are you going to handle “research” rolls? These are NEVER “likely” to be successful–will you eliminate them, or impose a form of “progressive gains”–i.e. a particular power gets a particular technology on a particular designated turn? How about Strategic Bombing raids–how will they work? What constitutes a “reasonable” roll for a SUB’s 1st shot attack?
I’m not saying it CAN’T work–it’s YOUR house rule, you can play however you want–but make sure you know what you REALLY want out of the game before you tweak the rules: doing so can have a profound effect on the way games turn out…

Just some random thoughts…

Ozone27

I agree with Ozone
If you really want to have very little chance involved in a game, go play checkers or chess. HOWEVER, if you want to go ahead with this house rule, I suggest that youinstead implement a handicap against a player if he is often rolling very good rolls and the game is ceasing to be fun to all parties. I would think that the way to do this would be to deduct a couple IPCs form his income. OR you can make him the side that usually loses(probably the axis, but maybe the allies)

This house rule takes away the unpredictability of A&A, which makes the game great.

Sh*t happens, dice represent that.

Well if you’re that interested in chess, you can play the Castle Axis and Allies variant which involves no luck or die whatsoever. Instead the game is based on probability.

As for Stalingrad. How did you manage to shoot down 2 of his ftrs? As far as I know there is no AA gun in the Caucasus.

For every good dice roll there is a bad dice roll, this stuff balances itself out over time. I wouldnt change the game. If you play the game the way your suggesting, I think it would become to predictable.

Leoncour was playing Axis and Allies Europe. Hence, the AA gun in Stalingrad to protect the IC.

Axis and Allies: Chess/Castle From Rober Cooper:
Basic Concept

Rather than rolling dice for each round of combat, add up the combat values of all units. This total is the total number of damage points (DP) inflicted. For every 6 DP, 1 enemy unit is destroyed, with the balance being carried over to the next round. Damaged units may have reduced effective, or cost IPC’s to repair.

Leftover Damage

When the battle is over, the leftover damage is handled as follows. The damaged unit can be repaired at a cost of 1/6 the units damage per DP. The decision to repair damage must be made immediately. If the unit has 1 or 2 DP, it can be repaired on the spot. If the unit has 4 or 5 DP it is removed from the map and comes back during the owner’s next build phase. If the unit has 3 DP, it is repaired on the map if it is a defender and rebuilt if an attacker. You may choose to sacrifice the unit and pay nothing.

Rounding

Round to the nearest whole number. Round halves against the attacker and in favor of the defender in all circumstances

Ineffective

If the attackers have 3+ DP of leftover damager at the end of the round, 1 attacking unit can’t fire. If the defender has 4+ DP of leftover damage, 1 defending unit can’t fire. [Therefore to destroy the defenders in 1 round, the attacker must have an attack value = 6 x # of defenders -2]

Production

A player does not have to decide his production at the start of the turn. Instead, choose your units when you place them. Units which you had to rebuild because of damage are counted against build limits. Note that units are rebuilt during the same player-turn when they were damaged (for the attacker). (The build phase is moved because you could work out all the consequences of your attack anyhow, so it saves work to choose units at the end)

Strategic Bombing

Each bomber inflicts 3 IPC’s in losses. The bombers take damage normally from the AA fire.

AA FIRE If aircraft are attacking without the support of ground units, damage is inflicted by the AA fire normally. Otherwise, total the attack values of the all the aircraft and reduce it by 6. AA damage must be repaired normally at the end of the battle with 1 plane shot down for every 6 DP. If any attack starts with supporting units, but they are destroyed, starting treating the AA damage as normal damage

Submarines

Submarines may only damage ships so if they fight alongside other units, their opponent may take some damage against ships and other damage against aircraft. Note that if the submarines achieve 4 DP during their first fire, that would prevent an enemy ship from firing back. A submarine that receives 4 or 5 DP from an attack can still retreat, but it would it still have to be rebuilt.

Breakoff

If the attacker wishes to breakoff an attack, the defender may forestall him by removing all his units and conceding the territory. This prevents the attacker from cutting his attacks very close.

Cargo on Transports

If a transport takes damage, its cargo takes the same damage

Technology

Don’t use technolgy when playing luckless A&A.

Ha just like my pal Rommel once said, “A plan never survives contact with the enemy…”