Edited.
Okay, one more revision:

Turn one

Germany buys one aircraft carrier and two transports

Attack sz109 w 1bmb & 1sub
Attack sz 110 w 1ftr 1tac & 2sub
Attack sz 111 w  1ftr 1tac & 2sub
Attack sz 112 w 1sub 1crs 1tac & 1ftr
Attack Normandy w 1inf & 1tnk
Attack Yugoslavia w 1tnk & 7inf
Attack France w everything else.

• Build your fleet in  sz 112 with your existing navy (this battle is overkilled because you can’t afford any loss of navy - not even a wounded BB - you need the fleet intact to protect your builds).

• build your fleet in sz 114 if combat is is disastrous.  To Russia with love!  Other wise build in sz112

• Non combat into Finland and into Bulgaria and pull two tanks back from the eastern front

Turn two

• Move your bonus infantry from Finland back to Norway and move all available continental infantry, armour, and artillery into West Germany

• Build up to ten transports as needed

• Attack Scotland w 3inf & 3tnk

• Destroy any UK boats in range of sz111

• Move your battleship to sz111 and the rest of your navy to sz113.

• Build in sz113

Turn three

Germans land in England!

UK’s defense

UK can build  nine units round one.  This leaves:

• 10inf

• 2rtl

• 1tnk

• 3ftr

• 1tac

This is if there are no German subs and UK brings reinforcement from Africa as in reply #4 bellow.  Otherwise UK’s pips will be lower.

UK can counterattack Scotland and/or attack sz111.  If they did neither, maximum round two homeland defense would be:

• 11inf

• 2rtl

• 5tnk

• 4ftr

• 1tac

This gives a defense strength of 60 pips for UK. against Germany’s 81 plus plus offshore bombardment.  This (for the sake of argument) is based on six planes surviving till G3, and five of those should survive the flac, accounting for 17 of the 81 pips.  This number is conservative, but leaves much extra strength should fewer p[lanes survive.

If UK attacks Scotland, they will need three or four ground units.  If they attack with four planes and two infantry/artillery pairs, they’ll lose about 3.5 units, so they don’t want to skip much more than that.  So maybe they’ll take away 12 pips from Germany’s offense, but at a cost of 8 points of they’re own defense.  This makes Germany roughly 69 vs 52.

If UK attacks sz111 they will need three planes.  One fighter and one Tactical bomber are a 3:2 dog to kill a battleship and survive to sink the transports.  If they send three fighters, they’ll reduce Germany from 81 to 69 (and remove a bombardment shot) for the cost of about on fighter plane.  This is on it’s own not enough, but it also makes it harder for UK to deal with Scotland efficiently.

Sea lion indeed can be forced baring any real bad luck G1.  But is it worth it?
[center]The problems

Germany sits proudly in London with an extra 30 or so pounds in hand.  But between two navy builds, anti aircraft fire and evacuating over 100 IPCs worth of ground units from Europe, Germany looks pretty frail.  Russia is Huge, America has massed a fleet in the Atlantic, and Japan has done nothing in order to keep USA away from the British Isles.  No pressure on India means a weak Italy.  America can soon liberate UK, and Germany can’t afford to fight for it - even without the Russians on their doorstep.

Overall, I’m convinced Germany can capture England, but not convinced that it is (or isn’t) their best option (who’d have thought).  I do think axis post sea lion is worth refining.  Can Germany hold out long enough and can Japan explode quickly enough?

Either way, I stand by the turn one build of Carrier and two transports (for now).  Even if you don’t attack England:

• You force UK to buy infantry round one

• Your Baltic fleet will help you against Russia

• Your Baltic fleet will help against allied invasion

• You force America to build Atlantic (though maybe this is what they should do anyway)

If the Allies don’t put up a decent defense, sea lion is too easy and most likely is a winning move.

Thoughts?

@Redjac:

You post details attacking London via Bomber(s) to damage the factory in turn 1 and turn 2?

If so, how do you get past the 3 UK Fighters in London? Interception is not an optional rule in A&A 1940.

Good point.  Send the bomber to sz109 and the fighter from there into France.  That’s how I played it in practice.

I have edited my 1st post.

@MarkVIIIMarc:

Interesting strategy u have. What do u think japan can do to help the most?

I don’t know.  Probably wipe out India turn four Get into Africa and the Middle East.  That might not be enough.  maybe massing around Alaska will force USA to commit enough troops westward so that they cannot liberate UK round four.

I’m going to play Sea Lion some more and hope I get some good ideas.

@JamesAleman:

Would it change your plans if UK pulled a fighter, tank and infantry from Alexandria into London UK2?

UK1: Transport and cruiser from 98 to 92, Fighter from Alexandria to carrier moved into 92, DD from 91 to 94 to block Italian navy. Build 9 infantry save 2 IPCs collect 28+2=30.

UK2: Transport from 92 to 106, drop off Infantry and Armor, land fighter in London. Three extra units plus 10 infantry production. Defense force: 22 infantry, 1 armor, 4 fighters, 1 tac bomber also 1 arm and infantry if 106 transport not sank-likely if you hit with 1 sub vs 1 DD. 28 pieces or 30 pieces on London G3. Did not remove any units from G2 as I’m not sure what you hit London with on G2 air wise.

Result Italian navy in tack and Egypt abandoned. Is London saved??

Germany can block with a Cruiser in sz91, but the loss of bombardment hurts, plus UK cans till get the fighter in.

UK collects 36 IPCs turn two, 39 if there are no German subs on board.  That builds seven infantry and three tanks.  Germany kills about six units wave one, over seven with the cruiser.

@Arminius:

Where does the 6th sub come from  :?

Oops!  1s post edited.  
@Arminius:

I think thats the weak spot in this strategy, if UK hit you there (like it did me on our first game) it could all be over very fast. Our UK player attacked me there…   …with what was left.
Here it would be 1CV (only good for 2 hits) 1DD 3FIG 1TAC (2,3,3,3,4) against
1BB (assumed damage) 1CRU 1CV 2FIG (2,3,4,4,4).
Not really good for UK,prepare to loose the CV , DD & the TAC.
Try to save the 3FIG for defending London. 1 or 2 combatrounds to give Damage to the German fleet. If all transports are in SZ112 I would sacrifice the 3 FIG as well to sink the whole fleet in one sweep.

On average that fleet only kills one plane.  Killing two is bad, killing two and wounding a battleship is atrocious.  I wonder the odds on that battle.  If Germany gets a draw and keeps the transports,  they’re home free against an airless England.

@Arminius:

(I would too, especially if transports were build in SZ112 - I build in SZ113)

UK can hit that space with air if they build an IC or move one to sz110.

@JamesAleman:

By the way, how many air units do you expect to lose G1?

Well, on average results only one.  But I don’t expect average results everywhere - the odds are against that.  I’m expecting an average plane loss of between one and two, but I’d like t work it out.

The beauty is if you loose too many planes, too much navy, or if the British survive with too much navy (essentially if you get unlucky), you can build you fleet in sz114 and be in okay shape against Russia (considering having been unlucky).  With the extra plane from Alexandria and the diversion of the cruiser, maybe you can only do Sea Lion if you get lucky turn one.  The fleet’s a nice build if it forces UK to build all infantry and divert the Alexandrian fighter.  It’ll also come in very handy attacking Russia and defending Norway.

@Blitchga:

My worry with this strat is that if the luck goes bad on G1 then you can put yourself in a bad position against Russia, something that Germany and the Axis as a whole cannot allow. They must bring a near perfect game to pull off a win. Otherwise it would be interesting to try a couple times on an unsuspecting opponent in order to switch things up a bit.

With the addition of the African forces to the defense of UK, I agree you need good luck to pursue this - either lose no planes or keep a sub on the East of UK or both.

As for the German position vs Russia, all you’ve done G1 is conquer France and wipe out the UK fleet.  These are sound goals in a war against Russia.  The naval build will ensure a long life for your Baltic fleet.  This will speed things ups against Russia and buy you time against the Allied incursion.  Furthermore, you’ve forced UK to build cautiously and defensively round one.  I would open this way even with no rea intention of Sea Lion.

Incidentally, can you show me a G1 opening that doesn’t leave you in a tough spot against Russia should the luck go very badly?

@JamesAleman:

Why do you attack on G2? Would it be better to land in Scotland instead?

This is a good idea, I’ve edited the post one.  Also I now encourage taking Yugoslavia G1, allowing for a ten transport build G2.

I’m still not sure sea Lion is the best plan, but if UK doesn’t react enough to the threat it can easily become the best plan.

@calvinhobbesliker:

10 transports? How does Germany hit 70 ipcs? 30 orig+2 NB+4 France+19 French ipcs+10 NO+2 Yugo+1 Finland+1 Bulgaria=69

Finland is worth 2 IPCs a turn.

@MarkVIIIMarc:

If Germany pretends it is alone on the map against England I believe they can forceably capture London on G4 after dropping a large number of units in scotland G3. The G3 Landing only has 60ish attack pips not a sure thing.

The G3 landing I calculate 81 pips vs 60, assuming Germany has five planes survive the AA gun and made a G2 Scotland landing.  England narrow the gap by attacking sz111 or Scotland, but not by enough.  I’ve presented these figures in the first post, edited last night.  Check it out!

@MarkVIIIMarc:

How many land ASSUMING Germany lands everything they can, 20 land units G3 and I think 16 G4 what is left to defend or retake Berlin? You can build 3 in Berlin G5. A bunch of tanks in W Germany with your 80ipc and also a few mech in france and a tac bomber in normandy?

What can be mustered to the defense of Germany depends on the strength and position of Italy, as well as exactly what America is doing.  This is probably going to require (much) more play testing.  Fortunately that’s fun!

@MarkVIIIMarc:

Your Japanese ally could pour into siberia trying to hunt the 18 inf down and busting the line to distract Russia. Japan going after India probably isnt going to happan presuming Japan waits to attack until J4 just so america cant help defend London. By then india owns the DEI and is making 27ipc a turn.

Japan won’t be far into Siberia this early, but every dollar taken from Russia helps.  By turn two Japan should have a major IC in Manchuria and should be in India by turn four.  SBRs against Russia should begin as soon as a landing strip has been established.  This brings a lot of pressure to Russia, but not soon enough to stop a R5 invasion of Berlin.  germany needs to hold out a little longer.

One of these days I’m going to look seriously at harassing North America with Japan.  I don’t expect they’ll do very well, but the diversion may be enough to save Italy and German occupied England.  One of these days…