USSR Invasion

@Hobbes:

G may conquer Moscow on G5 with a G2 attack.

I just had another look and if the Germans buy a Major IC for Romania on G1 and buy 10 armor for it on G2 then they can have enough power to conquer the Caucasus, by not attacking Yugoslavia on G1 and taking East Poland on G2. The armor on Romania will be able to hit Belarus on G3 and even if the Russians have moved everything possible to Belarus (23 inf, 2 art, 3 arm, 4 mech, 2 ftr, 1 tac) then it’s 75% odds for the Germans if they bring their 20 inf, 5 art and 13 arm. With the use of the Luftwaffe the odds get even better but the Russians will have an AA.
With the stack moving to Belarus on G3 then it’s Smolensk/Bryansk on G4 and a massive battle on Russia on G5. If G keeps buying 10 arm each turn until G4 then it should conquer Moscow on G5.

Never expect your enemy to do what you want them to do!

The weakness of your proposed G2 Barbarossa is that you move into the Soviet Union at top speed with minimal infantry, maximum armour and no flank protection. It’s not really interesting if the Red Army can hold in Belarus against a massed German attack, but a lot more if the Wehrmacht can hold Belarus if the Red Army concentrates behind it and counterattacks once the Germans have moved in.

After a quick count (might have missed a few) the Germans can move 13 inf / 6 art / 13 arm into Belarus on G3 and the Soviets can have a maximum of 33 inf / 6 art / 2 mech / 2 arm / 2 ftr / 2 tac ready for them in counterattack position behind Belarus. Though in reality they will have some of those guarding flank and threatening German open positions (which the Germans should be guarding as well by the way!).

The moment you move forward, you will lose your infantry screen. After that you can either wait for new troops to take the hits, losing a lot of time while the UK and US fleets are making their first landings in the West … or start trading armour for infantry against the Soviets, which is also a recipe for disaster.

By the way, not saying that a G2 Barbarossa is always doomed from the start, but that quick massed armour push to the north will fail against an experienced Soviet player.

8-)

@Latro:

Never expect your enemy to do what you want them to do!

The weakness of your proposed G2 Barbarossa is that you move into the Soviet Union at top speed with minimal infantry, maximum armour and no flank protection. It’s not really interesting if the Red Army can hold in Belarus against a massed German attack, but a lot more if the Wehrmacht can hold Belarus if the Red Army concentrates behind it and counterattacks once the Germans have moved in.

Well first, thanks for the feedback :)

That’s a very a very valid point, that the Russians would be most happy to destroy a large German stack on Belarus. It is possible for Russia to do so, depending on what it buys during its first 2 turns. However, Germany has a few options to prevent that from happening. I’ll go over them over the rest of your post.

@Latro:

After a quick count (might have missed a few) the Germans can move 13 inf / 6 art / 13 arm into Belarus on G3 and the Soviets can have a maximum of 33 inf / 6 art / 2 mech / 2 arm / 2 ftr / 2 tac ready for them in counterattack position behind Belarus. Though in reality they will have some of those guarding flank and threatening German open positions (which the Germans should be guarding as well by the way!).

G can move to E. Poland/Slovakia/Romania 19 inf, 5 art and 3 arm, if it doesn’t attack Yugoslavia. Lets assume 1 inf dies killing the Russian inf on E. Poland and another is killed by the Russians on taking Belarus, leaving 17 inf, 5 art and 13 armor on Belarus.

The Russians have initially 24 inf, 3 art, 2 arm, 2 mech, 2 ftr, 1 tac and they can add 2 rounds of builds to the attack, less 4 inf used to garrison Baltic/E.Poland/Belarus/W.Ukraine. If they purchase solely based on the offensive, they can buy 6 art on R1 and 3 art for Karelia, 2 arm and 1 mech on R2, maximizing their attack on Belarus and that will leave them with 20 inf, 12 art, 4 arm and 3 mech (plus the 2 ftrs and 1 tac), which would give them odds of 73% attack (including the shots by the German AA).

But there’s another one possibility when taking Belarus: let the Italians take it on I2 (on I1 you’d have to move the 2 armor from Albania/N. Italy to the Eastern front. It is something it should be done always since they can act as can openers for Germany). Then the entire German stack can move to Belarus, including all the planes. Odds for a successful attack by Russia? 19%, just by landing 2 German ftrs and 2 tacs there.

But let’s imagine G decides not to move to Belarus: the Italian attack failed or the Russians left more than 1 inf behind, preventing the fighters from landing.

Then G simply moves its stack to W. Ukraine. It cannot be attacked by a Russian stack on Smolensk and if the Russians pull back the stack to Bryansk then it may be attacked by the Germans. The UK fighters can’t reach Bryansk by UK3 just the 17 inf, 5 art, 13 arm of the German stack has a chance of 57% of taking Bryansk on G4. Add the Luftwaffe and the odds go higher, depending on the AA shots. So essentially Russia either risks an all out defense of Bryansk or pulls back into Moscow, essentially giving up most of Russia to the Germans. Decisions…

What other options for the Russians? The scenario above implies that Russia would focus its production in artillery to prevent the Germans from moving into Belarus. There are probably other options, such as abandoning completely Novgorod and focusing on preventing the Germans from moving their stack to Smolensk/Bryansk by G4. Meanwhile a 2nd German stack of close to 20 arm/mech (the ones used France and G3 production on Romania) will arrive at W. Ukraine by G4. Decisions…

@Latro:

The moment you move forward, you will lose your infantry screen. After that you can either wait for new troops to take the hits, losing a lot of time while the UK and US fleets are making their first landings in the West … or start trading armour for infantry against the Soviets, which is also a recipe for disaster.

The answer is not to waste infantry or tanks taking 1 IPC territories that are not in the path to Moscow (blitzing through empty territories excluded) - the Germans don’t have to fall for that Russian tactic if they don’t want to, it is a waste of resources for minimal gains. And any enemy infantry left behind the German stack can be killed by the armored reinforcements.

You also mentioned on the beginning that I am not protecting my flanks. Well, the 4 inf from Bulgaria can cover the southern flank while the Finnish infantry can push towards Leningrad - if the Russians attack them they are merely diverting units from their defensive efforts on the center.

@Latro:

By the way, not saying that a G2 Barbarossa is always doomed from the start, but that quick massed armour push to the north will fail against an experienced Soviet player.

8-)

I’m trying as well to come up with ideas for the Soviets to defend against this. Above is only a possible scenario. The Russians might decide to abandon Novgorod on R2 to concentrate further against the Germans. The UK might land on Greece on UK1 to activate those infantry, creating a thorn for the Axis on the Balkans. Who knows?  :-D

Just looked into it again and here’s a possible counter. If the UK lands 1 inf + 1 arm on Greece and activates on UK1 then the Italians will have to land units on Albania to prevent the UK from activating Yugoslavia. Otherwise, if Albania/Bulgaria are left with only 1 axis infantry then the UK can attack with its 5 inf then send the tank during non-combat to activate Yugo.
That really does not change the initial dynamic though since it is easy for Italy to block such a move although they won’t land 2 units on Africa that turn. It will divert the Italian tanks though.

The best way to attack the Soviet Union is to carefully make Moscow your end goal. By accumulating most of one’s forces in Poland and building a decent transport fleet, supported of course with defensive surface ships, one could steadily march the red army back to moscow and force them to literally surrender Stalingrad and Leningrad without much of a fight. The Soviet Union is simply too large for the Soviets to defend effectively. They can only stall and wait for your real problem: The Americans, which by that time should be wreaking havoc somewhere.

I personally waited and bought minimal land armies in preparation for the Soviet invasion until it actually began. The first few turns I threatened Sealion while building surface ships, focusing on disrupting England and Scotland’s convoys and getting the German fleet to the open sea to stall the eventual American Armada, possibly destroy it at least once when war comes, as the German navy was unusually large in my last game. The German Army can always threaten Leningrad through transports, which although contains a victory city, is not as strategically important as the territory that borders it to the south/southeast. The Russian Army must retreat against a constantly moving foe who only seeks a superior postion. If it does not catch what the German player is about to do very early on, it could make for a quick campaign on the German side of things, the German army can remain well supplied through its transports, and the western front can be at least stalled for several turns with a large German navy. If Italy is good to you, Germany might just survive to turn around and face the green monster.

I have success with G2 attacks.

I drive straight for Moscow, pausing 1 turn and hit Moscow G6.

This is achieved by taking France with 5 armor, keeping the German air force in tact, and building mostly mech each turn.

As stated above ignore Yugoslavia and any Russian 1 infantry zones.
Invasion route is: E.Poland G2, W. UkraineG3, PauseG4, BryanskG5, and then MoscowG6.

G2: 18inf, 5art,4Mech,2arm; G3: 18 inf, 5art, 7Mech,3 arm; G4: 18 inf, 5 art, 23 Mech, 8 Arm; G5: 18 inf, 5 art, 26 Mech, 8 arm; G6: 18 inf, 5 art, 30 Mech, 8 arm, 4ftr,3tac,1bmb.
Builds: 1)6 mech(1 saved in Belgium); 2) 13 mech; 3) 10 mech; 4) 10 mech(does not make Moscow-novgorad+volgograd force); 5+) defensive forces

Grab Moscow G6, take other cities by G8 hopefully G7 if they are emptied in the defense of Moscow.

Axis win G7 under ideal conditions otherwise G8 if the US does not take Egypt,Berlin, Rome or France.
Note, it is technically possible to hit Volgograd and Novgorad (Not likely)  G6 if empty for a G6 win.

@Hobbes:

G can move to E. Poland/Slovakia/Romania 19 inf, 5 art and 3 arm, if it doesn’t attack Yugoslavia. Lets assume 1 inf dies killing the Russian inf on E. Poland and another is killed by the Russians on taking Belarus, leaving 17 inf, 5 art and 13 armor on Belarus.

The Russians have initially 24 inf, 3 art, 2 arm, 2 mech, 2 ftr, 1 tac and they can add 2 rounds of builds to the attack, less 4 inf used to garrison Baltic/E.Poland/Belarus/W.Ukraine. If they purchase solely based on the offensive, they can buy 6 art on R1 and 3 art for Karelia, 2 arm and 1 mech on R2, maximizing their attack on Belarus and that will leave them with 20 inf, 12 art, 4 arm and 3 mech (plus the 2 ftrs and 1 tac), which would give them odds of 73% attack (including the shots by the German AA).

But there’s another one possibility when taking Belarus: let the Italians take it on I2 (on I1 you’d have to move the 2 armor from Albania/N. Italy to the Eastern front. It is something it should be done always since they can act as can openers for Germany). Then the entire German stack can move to Belarus, including all the planes. Odds for a successful attack by Russia? 19%, just by landing 2 German ftrs and 2 tacs there.

The Soviet strategy would basically remain the same though. Counterattack the German army, fight one or two rounds (depending on rolls), withdraw and link-up with the reinforcements coming from Russia. This strips Germany very quickly from it’s infantry protection while the Red Army gets immediate reinforcements moving towards the front … limiting the overall reduction in strength of the frontline army.

I know it’s impossible to actually go into details, but that’s not the point I’m trying to make. As an overall strategy, I’ve had a lot of success with the Soviet Union playing a very active defence instead of just moving back and defending Moscow with one massive stack. The Red Army needs to make the Wehrmacht bleed every step of the way, without getting drawn into one big all-deciding battle.

• Engage, kill infantry, disengage, link-up with reinforcements.
• Threaten every German move with a counterattack.
• Keep your important units (airforce!) always out of the actual frontline.

@Hobbes:

Then G simply moves its stack to W. Ukraine. It cannot be attacked by a Russian stack on Smolensk and if the Russians pull back the stack to Bryansk then it may be attacked by the Germans.

No need, this creates exactly the same situation as in Belarus. The Red Army in Smolensk can threaten every move towards Moscow with a counterattack … and every turn not moving towards Moscow bring the Axis one turn closer to defeat.

8-)

@JamesAleman:

Axis win G7 under ideal conditions otherwise G8 if the US does not take Egypt,Berlin, Rome or France.

I find this line the most interesting. With no early sizable naval builds, all of the Luftwaffe going East, most of the other reinforcements going East as well … how can Germany ever hope to fend off the amphibious assaults coming from the West? Combined UK/US landings are pretty much guaranteed as early as turn 4 and you have nothing to push them back.

8-)

After the fall of Leningrad G5 I advanced on Moscow on a broad (4 territory-wide) front, dividing my forces in 4.

Russia can counter attack any one of the mini stacks, but risks putting his own stack out of position, vulnerable to counters from newly arriving armor. Strafing attacks become a possibility, but this prevents his own stack from retreating back to Moscow.

All he could do was slowly collapse on Moscow (Volgograd was being threatened by the Italians, falling on I7).

@Latro:

@JamesAleman:

Axis win G7 under ideal conditions otherwise G8 if the US does not take Egypt,Berlin, Rome or France.

I find this line the most interesting. With no early sizable naval builds, all of the Luftwaffe going East, most of the other reinforcements going East as well … how can Germany ever hope to fend off the amphibious assaults coming from the West? Combined UK/US landings are pretty much guaranteed as early as turn 4 and you have nothing to push them back.

8-)

“Ideal conditions” means if they haven’t made a large successful landing or seized one of the victory cities preventing your 8th. Your air force does not move towards Russia until turn 5 for the turn 6 assault. You may note 10 mech costs 40 IPCs, leaving enough money for either an air unit, sub or 4-5 land units a turn for defense based on your needs. Enough air/subs keeps the US fleet at bay, or they risk throwing it away. Turn 5 [the “effective” landing turn[i]-maybe] and beyond sees only defensive German builds.

Its been my experience that UK cannot risk placing a fleet down before the American’s arrive or turn 5 whichever occurs first.[Turn 5 is the round that you shift your implied threat away form the sea towards Moscow. By then the US has already placed navy in the waters to counter the air challenge, thus reducing their landing fleet size.] Why? Your sz113 fleet BB,CA, 3-6 subs (1 a turn costs 6 IPCs) and 8 air units. (my first turn build is only 6 mechs so that I build a sub 24+6=30). To protect transports from the Germans on turn 4 from [5 navy and 8 air], the US/UK needs at least 3-4 [DD/Support Ships] and 2 carriers and 4 fighters.

If they land on W. Germany, the turn you acquired the 8th city, they still lose on Germany’s turn during the check for win step at the beginning of each axis turn (top of p.24 AAE40). They literally have 1 turn to bring you below 8 cities. Its easier to do after G8 but by G6-G7 can be a challenge. Remember a factory in Norway is nice for the allies, but unless it was used to take Novgorod, it will still be there when the game ends.

Remember its a race to win in E40, you can only turtle maybe in G40. Germany is the main player, they either win it quickly, or wait and lose.

Did my suggested piece count hitting Moscow G6 seem realistic?

P.S. Thank you for your concern and response, I have now provided additional detail for further consideration, as much as is possible without knowing what the allies responses are…I can’t post all likely events. I can just post steps for my previous successes that may or may not work for your play style, that is up to the reader to evaluate and try.

@JamesAleman:

I have success with G2 attacks.

I drive straight for Moscow, pausing 1 turn and hit Moscow G6.

This is achieved by taking France with 5 armor, keeping the German air force in tact, and building mostly mech each turn.

As stated above ignore Yugoslavia and any Russian 1 infantry zones.
Invasion route is: E.Poland G2, W. UkraineG3, PauseG4, BryanskG5, and then MoscowG6.

G2: 18inf, 5art,4Mech,2arm; G3: 18 inf, 5art, 7Mech,3 arm; G4: 18 inf, 5 art, 23 Mech, 8 Arm; G5: 18 inf, 5 art, 26 Mech, 8 arm; G6: 18 inf, 5 art, 30 Mech, 8 arm, 4ftr,3tac,1bmb.
Builds: 1)6 mech(1 saved in Belgium); 2) 13 mech; 3) 10 mech; 4) 10 mech(does not make Moscow-novgorad+volgograd force); 5+) defensive forces

Grab Moscow G6, take other cities by G8 hopefully G7 if they are emptied in the defense of Moscow.

Axis win G7 under ideal conditions otherwise G8 if the US does not take Egypt,Berlin, Rome or France.
Note, it is technically possible to hit Volgograd and Novgorad (Not likely)  G6 if empty for a G6 win.

Interesting… I hadn’t looked at the possibility of using part of the mechanized force in W. Germany to bolster the G2 attack. I assume that the Germans focus on France and don’t attack N/B (thus the mech left behind to stop the French from taking Benelux) but that might be a little risky attack, depending on the number of planes used there and against the UK fleets.

The piece count looks correct. I wouldn’t expect for all of the 5 tanks used in France to survive though. With the G4 build Germany might start switching to defensive units since they won’t reach Russia for G7 (unless built on Volvograd/Novgorod).

@Hobbes:

Interesting… I hadn’t looked at the possibility of using part of the mechanized force in W. Germany to bolster the G2 attack. I assume that the Germans focus on France and don’t attack N/B (thus the mech left behind to stop the French from taking Benelux) but that might be a little risky attack, depending on the number of planes used there and against the UK fleets.

The piece count looks correct. I wouldn’t expect for all of the 5 tanks used in France to survive though. With the G4 build Germany might start switching to defensive units since they won’t reach Russia for G7 (unless built on Volvograd/Novgorod).

I typically destroy 4/5 of the UK navy zones, Leaving the BB/CA in sz 111? for G2. I build a sub turn 1 to make sure I prevent the UK N/O and for a counter-attack. I use the BB/CA in 112 as bait for the BB/CA in 111. I typically hit France with everything (+ 1 FTR) that can reach [7@1,4@2,6@3vs:9@2,2@3,1@4], minus 1 Mech to protect the air units that land in Belgium as the Bomber has to land there when its done hitting 109. Yes I ignore Normandy until G2.

The 4 Mechs on G2 are the first turn production in Berlin plus 1 saved in Belgium. it should only be 3 mechs…oops, that mech reaches on G3. Yes sometimes I take France with as few as 3 tanks. If it only last 3 rounds, it leans towards 5 armor and 1 artillery after they hit me [5+3+2=] 10 times. I hit them [5+4+3=] 12 times which typically ends it by round 3 the German fighter tips the scale enough for the better outcome.

The 4th turn production gives options: Swing towards an allied landing G5, meet up and support Bulgarian or Finland infantry for any Russian probing attacks, or to secure the other cities.

Note: my Germany typically collects: 59,50,52,52 the first 4 rounds.
Also: the battle for Moscow is a close fight, if Germany loses, that’s the game. This is not a “killer” strategy, its just the one that I use to take Moscow quickly starting on G2.
Also: I give Italy two objectives: Hold Egypt until US9 and build infantry/artillery for European defense. I typically collect 15+ IPCs a turn with them.

@JamesAleman:

I typically destroy 4/5 of the UK navy zones, Leaving the BB/CA in sz 111? for G2. I build a sub turn 1 to make sure I prevent the UK N/O and for a counter-attack. I use the BB/CA in 112 as bait for the BB/CA in 111. I typically hit France with everything (+ 1 FTR) that can reach [7@1,4@2,6@3vs:9@2,2@3,1@4], minus 1 Mech to protect the air units that land in Belgium as the Bomber has to land there when its done hitting 109. Yes I ignore Normandy until G2.

The 4 Mechs on G2 are the first turn production in Berlin plus 1 saved in Belgium. it should only be 3 mechs…oops, that mech reaches on G3. Yes sometimes I take France with as few as 3 tanks. If it only last 3 rounds, it leans towards 5 armor and 1 artillery after they hit me [5+3+2=] 10 times. I hit them [5+4+3=] 12 times which typically ends it by round 3 the German fighter tips the scale enough for the better outcome.

Using all that power in France gives you a 97.5% odd of winning the battle, with the most likely result of 2 art, 5 mech and 1 ftr remaining. You could reassign the fighter elsewhere and still get 90% odds. Ignoring N/B to focus on France is a good idea - you won’t get the NO unless you also take Southern France.

Most likely you will clear 3 of the 5 SZs, since the attack on SZ106 is a coin toss. Moving the German fleet to SZ112 to be bait sounds counterproductive since the UK can attack it with the units on SZ111 plus the fighters on the UK and still perform the attack on the Italians on SZ95.

Also: the battle for Moscow is a close fight, if Germany loses, that’s the game. This is not a “killer” strategy, its just the one that I use to take Moscow quickly starting on G2.

To me it is a killer strat since once the fight for Moscow starts the result should determine the winner of the game :)
I’m still not 100% convinced of buying only mech infantry - I think the Germans need more offensive power (i.e. armor) to defend themselves from a Russian counterattack on W. Ukraine/Belarus on R3 and later to take Moscow. I’m gonna run some simulations for that.

I’m a bit puzzled here … if I add 5 turns of production (guesstimate of course) to the initial Soviet forces, the German has exactly 0% chance of winning against that massive Red Army. That is of course an extreme example of when the Soviet Union chooses to concentrate everything in Moscow, but the odds are so overwhelmingly in favour of the Soviets, that they can easily afford to have smaller formations elsewhere dealing with minor German flank operations (who will also be very limited due to the concentrated push strategy).

Did I mis anything?

:?

@Latro:

I’m a bit puzzled here … if I add 5 turns of production (guesstimate of course) to the initial Soviet forces, the German has exactly 0% chance of winning against that massive Red Army. That is of course an extreme example of when the Soviet Union chooses to concentrate everything in Moscow, but the odds are so overwhelmingly in favour of the Soviets, that they can easily afford to have smaller formations elsewhere dealing with minor German flank operations (who will also be very limited due to the concentrated push strategy).

Did I mis anything?

:?

I have made an Excel sheet to progress the advance of the German army into Russia.

This a table presenting the size of both armies (only land units included), both in number of units and the total IPC value of the units (TUV), at the beginning of their turns. It assumes the scenario described by JamesAleman on his previous posts.

| | G Units | G TUV | R Units | TUV |
| G1 | 46 | 173 | 31 | 104 |
| R1 | 53 | 198 | 31 | 104 |
| G2 | 53 | 198 | 39 | 132 |
| R2 | 64 | 243 | 37 | 126 |
| G3 | 64 | 243 | 45 | 160 |
| R3 | 78 | 290 | 43 | 154 |

As you may see, by the start of R3 Germany’s army is almost the double of the size of the Russian army, with most of the force will be in position to strike at Russian territories. And if Germany follows the straight for Moscow attack plan then it has no interest of diverting forces to take 1 IPC territories. Any lone Soviet infantry can be dealt with by the Finland and Bulgaria infantry and new production or simply ignored. So the Soviets really have no other option than to pull back everything they have to defend Moscow.
After G4 the distances involved and the presence of UK/US landings will limit the number of units that can be sent to Russia but even then it will take quite a while before the Red Army is able to achieve parity with the Germans.

But definitely the odds are not 0% for the Germans, depending on their buys and moves. If they move hard against Russia its more of a coin toss, and the more resources their pour into it, the better the odds.

I’m not kidding …

I used the list of the German mech inf army as it would be in G6 when attacking Moscow and then made a guesstimate of the Red Army (starting army + 5 turns inf buy) that could be in place at that time to defend it. Tossed the numbers into the Axis and Allies odds calculator … and it came up with 0% chance of a win for the Germans. Keep in mind that the Red Army can have as much as 70 inf by that time …

:-o

@Latro:

I’m not kidding …

I used the list of the German mech inf army as it would be in G6 when attacking Moscow and then made a guesstimate of the Red Army (starting army + 5 turns inf buy) that could be in place at that time to defend it. Tossed the numbers into the Axis and Allies odds calculator … and it came up with 0% chance of a win for the Germans. Keep in mind that the Red Army can have as much as 70 inf by that time …

:-o

I’ve just done the calc as well with a calculatorl:

70 inf, 3 art, 2 arm, 2 ftr, 1 tac, 1 AA Gun for the Russians.
18 inf, 5 art, 35 armor (the initial 8 and 3 production runs on a Major IC on Romania that I mentioned in a previous post, although it won’t produce always 10 arm but will always produce 10 units, some of them mech), 7 mech, 3 ftrs, 2 tac, 1 bmr (the number of planes assumes some losses sinking UK fleets).

Result for a G6 attack:
A. survives: 54% D. survives: 45.8% No one survives: 0.2%

G should kill, on average, 27 units during the first round of combat while the Russians should kill some 25 units. But the Germans lose units with an attack of 1 while the Russians lose units with a defense of 2, so the offensive.
Germans start with 166 attack points, Russians with 161 points. If the 1st round goes average then Germans drop to a 128 attack while the Russians drop to 107. If you keep getting average rolls for both then Russia will fall.

Ah, miscommunication there …

I used the list of the German mech inf army as it would be in G6 when attacking Moscow …

I was talking about the Mech Inf army of JamesAleman and his G6 Moscow push. Your Armour army has a lot more punch, but also a lot less screening units. The best way to stop that, as I metnioned before, would be to counterattack before it reaches Moscow to kill the infantry … after that the battles will be almost pure armour v. infantry which is a very bad match-up for the attacker.

8-)

I agree, if you build all Infantry, and move all units to Moscow…It would not be “Ideal Conditions” for you to continue my all mech push.

At this point, you would have to adjust your plan. It should be apparent by the beginning of turn 4, that Russia is moving its units to Moscow. I suggest you have two choices, based on what the other allies are doing.

Choice 1: Change G4’s planned production. Continue with your move towards Moscow as you have the units on the board, when Russia moves its stack into Moscow, since it is all infantry you can move next to it with your stack…pinning it in Moscow and send 1 - 3 armor to clean up the southern territories plus the V-City. Use the Finland infantry to secure the Northern V-City. Send the Bulgarian infantry to Berlin. Russia retreating to Moscow leaves them maybe 8 IPCs a turn, so add 20 IPCs plus 2 N/Os to Germany’s estimated 39 + 10 for the Norway N/Os. I estimate a German Production of 79 IPCs by turn 6 under this scenario. Now, budget 12-15 IPCs for artillery in Volgograd/Russian front, the rest in navy to either do a late game Sea Lion for city number 8 or a sub air force strategy with a Neutral crush that prevents an allied buildup in Gibraltar…Italy ground forces will enter Spain when Germany takes it. With Spain as a landing field the W. Germany air base reaches most allied staging areas, Axis control of Gibraltar protects Italy. Play a game of production with the allies, eventually Moscow or London will fall if you outproduce them.

Choice 2: build all armor G4, and maybe another round of armor and try to take G7 or G8. I haven’t done the math to see if that would be viable.

This may seem risky, but changing strategies mid game is not without its risks. Again, I am not advocating this as a be all end all strategy. It was just a fast way to take Moscow, unless Russia does “extreme” builds and moves to prevent it. All it takes is a small Russian stack protecting Novgorad or move offensive unit builds and I bet the numbers change. Maybe they don’t and I’m just wasting our collective time.

Thanks for the input and crunching the numbers for me. I value the debate and hope to benefit from the points presenting regarding this strategy.

@Latro:

Ah, miscommunication there …

I used the list of the German mech inf army as it would be in G6 when attacking Moscow …

I was talking about the Mech Inf army of JamesAleman and his G6 Moscow push. Your Armour army has a lot more punch, but also a lot less screening units.

I had noticed that you used the ‘mech army’ for your calculations. I used the ‘tank army’ example because you seemed sure that Moscow could not fall to the Germans  :-)

The best way to stop that, as I metnioned before, would be to counterattack before it reaches Moscow to kill the infantry …

Counterattacking a stack so loaded with tanks (and possibly planes as well) will remove most, if not all of the screening infantry. But it will also bring more losses to the attacker because of the tank stack.

after that the battles will be almost pure armour v. infantry which is a very bad match-up for the attacker.

If you mean that the attacker will be trading units of more value than the defender, yes. But if both sides are equal in numbers (and attacking the tank stack will kill a lot of Russian infantry) then the attacker has the advantage since his units have a bigger attack factor.

@JamesAleman:

I agree, if you build all Infantry, and move all units to Moscow…It would not be “Ideal Conditions” for you to continue my all mech push.

At this point, you would have to adjust your plan. It should be apparent by the beginning of turn 4, that Russia is moving its units to Moscow. I suggest you have two choices, based on what the other allies are doing.

Choice 1: Change G4’s planned production. Continue with your move towards Moscow as you have the units on the board, when Russia moves its stack into Moscow, since it is all infantry you can move next to it with your stack…pinning it in Moscow and send 1 - 3 armor to clean up the southern territories plus the V-City. Use the Finland infantry to secure the Northern V-City. Send the Bulgarian infantry to Berlin. Russia retreating to Moscow leaves them maybe 8 IPCs a turn, so add 20 IPCs plus 2 N/Os to Germany’s estimated 39 + 10 for the Norway N/Os. I estimate a German Production of 79 IPCs by turn 6 under this scenario. Now, budget 12-15 IPCs for artillery in Volgograd/Russian front, the rest in navy to either do a late game Sea Lion for city number 8 or a sub air force strategy with a Neutral crush that prevents an allied buildup in Gibraltar…Italy ground forces will enter Spain when Germany takes it. With Spain as a landing field the W. Germany air base reaches most allied staging areas, Axis control of Gibraltar protects Italy. Play a game of production with the allies, eventually Moscow or London will fall if you outproduce them.

Choice 2: build all armor G4, and maybe another round of armor and try to take G7 or G8. I haven’t done the math to see if that would be viable.

This may seem risky, but changing strategies mid game is not without its risks. Again, I am not advocating this as a be all end all strategy. It was just a fast way to take Moscow, unless Russia does “extreme” builds and moves to prevent it. All it takes is a small Russian stack protecting Novgorad or move offensive unit builds and I bet the numbers change. Maybe they don’t and I’m just wasting our collective time.

Thanks for the input and crunching the numbers for me. I value the debate and hope to benefit from the points presenting regarding this strategy.

I only crunched the numbers on that total-infantry defence to get an idea of what the situation would be during the mech-infantry push to Moscow on G6. Needless to say, those numbers turned out to be very extreme indeed. So extreme actually, that the Soviets can afford to operate several smaller infantry formations away from Moscow and still have something like a 95% chance of victory at the capital. Due to the massive defenders advantage, the Soviets have a lot of flexibility in their build … the Germans on the other hand do not.

This immediately locks down your first choice as alternative strategy. The German mech-inf can’t lock down the Soviet army in Moscow because it has no chance of victory in either attack or defence. For every small flanking formation you move away from the  main army, the Soviets can intercept with more and still keep their massive advantage around Moscow.

The reason for this lies in the effectiveness of the initial builds. Germany builds mech infantry to attack, the Soviet Union builds regular infantry to defend. For every 30 IPC Germany uses on the mech infantry, they gain 7.5 pips in the attack … the Soviets gain 20 defensive pips with their infantry build using the same 30 IPC. That’s almost 3 times as effective!

Choice 2:

G7 attack with 10 extra armour gives 1.1% chance of success
G8 attack with 20 extra armour gives 14.5% chance of success
G9 attack with 30 extra armour gives 36.7% chance of success

Personally I don’t put too much faith in precise predictions so late in the game though … way too much can happen to mess things up. I also don’t think it’s realistic to expect Germany being able to spend up to three turns of (almost) full production going East … in my games around turn 4-5 the landings in the West start to become very serious and drain a lot of income.

On a sidenote: I haven’t been able to find a good way to attack the Soviet Union yet, but I’m considering trying lots of smaller attacks in stead of the single concentrated push towards Moscow. So far I haven’t seen any concentrated push strategy with good odds of success. The advantage of multiple small attacks would be:

• The Soviets will either have to defend with multiple smaller stacks or give up a lot of ground and lose valuable economic power.
• Multiple smaller attacking formations can easily concentrate attacks against a single defensive formation, defenders can never react in time … and if the concentrate in an important location, the attackers will remain spread out and take more territories.
• Defending infantry becomes very scary in large numbers … but small formations are easy to destroy. So the defender has the choice of losing valuable troops defending against multiple attacks which prevents concentrating a large powerful army, or giving up a lot of ground very fast leaving him with very limited resources to build his main army.

8-)