No.
1) Russia could still Counter with 2 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr. (Remember 2 inf from eve to Mos, 1 arm to Novo, 1 ftr went to UK)
2) Germay attacking Kar when it has 19 inf, 3 arm, 1 ftr is a big mistake.
2A) You have to bring in 4 ftrs just to ensure you take it (that is with avg dice), which means 4 aa shots. Maybe maybe you can get away with 3 but that is a huge risk for very little reward, IMO.
2B) That leaves ONLY 2 planes for UK sz and E Can. So 2 Subs and 2 planes to UK sz??? Do you leave the E can tran??? The UK sz has 1 bb, 2 trns, 1 sub. If you go in with only 2 subs an 2 planes there is a chance you’ll lose a ftr there.
If you go to Kar you have to go all or nothing, meaning bring in all planes and kill off your ftrs before your tanks, which means you have to leave the Allied fleet.
If you then take with 5-7 arm THEN you consider landing the Jap ftrs there. Other wise you’ll lose your Jap ftrs with the UK counter and Russia follow-up.
If you try to do both Kar and UK sz, and go for the wins, you are in for a world of hurt.
So by Germany blitzing open territories and not hitting Egypt in G1, you pull out of Africa to Persia? Cool. I’ll add another 4 IPC’s to Germany free in G2.
No. Then UK transports back from Per to kill your arm. Only this time I have the Unit that moved up to Ken, the 2 inf in Per (via trn), the arm, and my bom if needed.
Also, you made an error in your calculations. If Russia stacks Karelia with 19INF, 3 ARM and 1 FIG in R1, then there are NO ARM or FIGS in Caucuses for a counter. That represents almost 100% of the forces Russia has available west of Russia at the end of R1 , your Karelia forces, your Caucuses forces, your Russia forces, and all of your build (other than the 1 fig in UK). You have 1 INF either in Russia or Caucuses, 1 fig in UK, and 7 INF and 1 ARM in Yakut.
Wrong. 2 inf from eve to Mos. 5 inf, 1 ftr in Yak is enough to defend with no Asia bid. (see above for counter on G1, IF they even take Kar which is doubtful without significant ftr presence)
Also, if you stack Karelia that heavy, and I intend to go for it, I am going to use my med navy to land in Caucuses in G1 and ignore the Gibraltar Battleship. Will make my navy battle in G2 a trifle harder, but still easilly winable with my remaining AF, even with US figs.
Wrong. Your forced to leave some, if not all of the Allied fleet in the UK sz or E can as well. You’ll need some planes in Kar.
13 inf, 7 arm vs. 19 inf, 3 arm, 1 ftr That is a big mismatch. You need at least 4 ftrs, and if you go with that much, you might as well bring all 6 and leave the Allied fleet. Which again leaves the UK counter for Kar.
If Germany wants, it can try for Russia in G2. They will have 3+ ARM (the plus a matter of how many tanks survived the initial attack), 2 INF from Caucuses, and their remaining AF (2-4 figs and 1 bom). Russia will have AT MOST 8 INF (their R2 build), 3 UK figs , 1 UK BOM, 1 ARM moved back from Yakut in R2. An attack of 5 to 9 3’s, 2 1’s and a 4 against 9 2’s and 3 4’s.
Attack Rating from 21 to 33 with 8 to 12 pieces
Defense Rating MAX 30 with 12 pieces.
That means that, if I survived Karelia with more than 3 tanks and a couple of figs,plus the figs that survived the UK navy in G1, Russia falls to Germany in G2. Then Germany drops it’s build in Karelia and Germany preparing for the UK to start minor landings, to hold for 1 round of serious attack before Germany does a 60 IPC build in G3. Japan starts mopping up Russia’s few remaining forces by hitting Yak HARD, as well as hitting Sinkiang to remove UK’s forces in Asia, and in 2 rounds, the Continent is secure, Axis wins.
Nope.
Not without a bigger bid to Europe.
You assume far too much. If you want to go for the R2 kill, you have to go Kar heavy on G1 with all planes. And you have to sacrifice planes instead of arm. Meaning you leave the Allied fleet intact.
Personally, I don’t go for Kar unless I think I can take with all 7 arm then land the 2 J ftrs, plus the 2 inf in Cauc and the 2 arm in EE.
Also Russia can actually defend with 10 inf, 1 arm, 4 ftrs (1R ftr from UK, 3 UK ftrs), 2 boms (UK, US).
Russia has 40 Defensive pts.
Germany has the 2 inf in Cauc, but they still need about 14-15 3’s to take. So with 7 arm left over in Kar and 2 in EE, you still need ALL 6 planes. And again that assumes you lose 0 in rd 1, which is IMPOSSIBLE if you intend to take Kar and hold.
You simply don’t have enough without a PE bid.
Again, the Allies are too strong, hence the need for bids. With RR I’d go 9-15 range and in regular 21+.
Personally, I think 22 is enough for the Axis to be competitive.