Part 1
Outline
- This is a strategy designed to give a quick and heavy blow to the Soviet Union (USSR) if certain conditions are met at the beginning of the German round.
- It is a ‘gambler’ strategy, which means that Germany will employ everything (or almost) to attack and conquer West Russia on G1, with 80-90% odds of winning. However, the German Luftwaffe will have first to survive the AA Gun, which can determine the entire battle (and the game).
- This is a common strategy for the Axis, sometimes combined with an 8 armor buy by Germany at start.
- After the destruction of the Red Army on WRus on G1 The emphasis is to force the Soviets to counterattack West Russia or abandon Caucasus for the Axis. When the latter happens then the Axis will have rendered the USSR’s initiative to almost zero while its power will start to vanish.
- The most important factor in deciding to use this strat is the number of Soviet units on WRus at the beginning of G1 - more on that on Part 2.
Goals:
- Conquer/Secure Caucasus with the Axis on rounds 3 to 5.
- Destroy the Soviet Union’s ability to wage war, by denying them key territories and destroying its armies.
- Delay the UK/US as much as possible from assisting the Soviets.
- Conquer Moscow with either Germany or Japan while securing Berlin and Tokyo.
Conditions/Requirements
- The number of Soviet units on West Russia at the beginning of Germany’s round.
- The USSR’s initial purchase, specially if it includes planes and or subs.
- Non-combat movement of the 6 Soviet INF to Buryatia.
- Non-combat movement of the 6 Soviet INF in Novosibirsk, Kazakh and Evenki to support a KFJ strategy.
Why Should I Attack West Russia on G1?
Very good question. Let’s assume you’ve calculated some 80% odds of success but you’re wondering if there’s a more logical reason to sacrifice the Luftwaffe other than to have a risky and fast game. Here are 2 answers for it: it gives Germany numerical superiority over the Soviets and keeps the strategic initiative on the Axis side.
German Superiority
Here’s the starting forces of both powers that can reach the Eastern front (defined as the territories from E. Eur/Balkans to Russia/Caucasus) during combat/non-combat on round 1:
- Soviet Union - 18 INF, 2 ART, 4 ARM (Total Unit Value - 82 IPCs)
- Germany - 19 INF, 3 ART, 8 ARM (TUV - 112) - excludes 2 INF left to defend W. Europe and INF + ART sent to attack Egypt.
This gives Germany a starting ground advantage in TUV of 1.36:1, or a 1/3 advantage. However, this advantage is not quite as it seems since its forces are dispersed throughout several territories and the Soviets can build new units on the theatre, while all new German builds have to travel from Germany/S. Europe.
Also, during the opening round the Soviets should reduce this advantage up to 12 IPCs - on a Ukraine + West Russia attack the Soviets should kill 6 INF, 2 ART, 2 ARM (36 IPC) while losing 6 INF, 1 ART, 1-2 ARM (27-32 IPC) and at the end the Soviets will add 24 IPCs worth of new builds, which means that Germany will face instead a situation of a 1:1 on the Eastern front at the start of G1, with 73 IPC to the USSR’s 74-79.
If both Germany/USSR switch to swapping Karelia/Belo/WRus, the Soviets will build about 26-29 IPCs worth of income on round 2, while Germany usually sending 7-11 IPCs out of their G1 build of 40 to Africa/W. Eur and you have a stalemate regarding the relative ground strength of both powers at the end of round 2. The usual way for the Axis to break this stalemate is to advance a German stack into Karelia/Ukraine and secure it with Japanese fighters.
However, if Germany destroys the West Russia stack while retake the other territories lost to the Soviets on SU1, then this situation changes. Soviet ground losses climb up to 64 IPCs while Germans will lose 41 IPCs, plus planes. Which drastically changes the ground situation on the theatre, since now Germany will have 61 or slightly less IPCs while the Red Army, even with the new builds will only have around 44. With a G1 buy of 5 INF, 5 ARM the German TUV can go up to 84 IPC because the newly built armor can reach Ukraine/Karelia, giving it a 2:1 ratio for the Germans at the start of round 2, even better than the starting 1.36.
All of this above is the best case scenario for… the Soviets - it assumes they only built ground units on R1 and sent the 6 INF on Evenki/Novo/Kazakh towards Russia/Caucasus, otherwise the Soviet TUV would be even lower. It also doesn’t take into account other potential German moves such as taking Caucasus on G1, or using the transports on SZ5/14 to bring as many INF units as possible from W. Eur/S. Eur/Libya to the Eastern front, so the advantage could go higher (or lower, always remember that dice can change everything).
Regarding income, Germany will have earned 42 (46 with Caucasus) IPCs to the Soviet Union’s 26-29 on the first round. But on round 2 the USSR will only be able to retake WRus and Caucasus/Ukraine, so at the best it will earn 27 IPCs, assuming it has control of West Russia, Ukraine and Buryatia. Prevent the Soviets from getting Ukraine and Buryatia’s IPCs and the Axis ensure that Germany is earning twice as the USSR at the end of round 2. Which roughly means that Germany can match Soviet production AND deploy it quickly to the Eastern front by building 5 ARM each round, plus whatever spare infantry it can find.
But if the attack on West Russia suffers from ‘catastrophic dice failure’ and Germany is unable to destroy the stack, then since it’s the beginning of the game, you can always concede and start again. Having odds of 80-90% isn’t enough on ensure victory with regular dice - one thing are odds, the other actual dice results.
Axis Strategic Initiative
A German takeover of West Russia on R1 forces the Soviets to choose between 2 options - retake West Russia or abandon the Caucasus. If the Axis keeps the pressure on WRus then most of Russia’s army will have to be employed to trade that territory with the Germans and be destroyed on the exchange. The only way for the USSR to recover its balance is to stack West Russia again against a German attack.
But can it? On the scenario described ahead, the Red Army will start round 2 with 5 INF, 1 ARM on Russia and 3 INF, 3 ARM on Caucasus and single German units on WRus and Ukraine. If it sends 2 INF to Ukraine and the rest for West Russia then at a best case scenario it will have 6 INF and 4 ARM defending it. But the Germans should have 6 INF, 2 ARM on Karelia and 3 ARM on E. Eur that can hit WRus, plus the remaining Luftwaffe. And if that Soviet stack on WRus is gone at round 2, all that Russia has now to defend itself is new builds from round 3 onwards, unless it withdrew completely the Far East infantry.
Even if the USSR limits itself to sending a few INF to retake West Russia it will still be a drain on Soviet resources and most of their army will be tied up on the defense of Caucasus. Even if its preventing the fall of Caucasus to the Axis, both Germany and Japan will keep the initiative on Europe and Asia as long as they can maintain the pressure on a beaten Soviet Union.
The drawbacks are that it gives the Allies freedom of action on both the Atlantic and the Pacific, and Germany reduces its attention on Africa and allows the UK the ability to choose the direction it wants to use its forces on Asia and Africa, including supporting a KFJ. In other words, it increases the Allies’ opportunities but nearly all of those new options will not deflect Germany from Russia. The Allies now need to decide on either sending everything to stop the Germans on Europe or trying a gamble of their own - setting up a Kill Japan First strategy.
The difference between both the Axis and the Allied gambles are that Germany’s decision will impact the rest of the game immediately, with a fair chance that it will be on the Axis favor. But an Allied KFJ strategy will completely change the rest of the game and the odds are about even or less - any UK moves against Japan will be limited and will give some warning to Japan.
The main factor for Germany’s decision to attack or not is the situation at the end of SU1 - that will be covered on the 2nd Part.