Axis strategy revisit.

[BladeXrunners]

I’m still trying to determine what’s the best Axis strategy is for victory.

Let recap by saying 2nd ed, board game, RR, and let’s say no new IC to simplify matter a little.

Best Russian move turn 1 is to stack Karelia with 19 Inf, 3 Armor, & 2 Fighter, Cau 1 Inf.

So question is what is the best German move on T1. Most “expert” say slow-steady Africa strat; eg.
3 Fighter 1 Sub 1 Tran attack North Sea fleet of 1 BB 1 Sub 2 Trans
1 Fighter 1 Sub vs Gibraltar 1 BB
1 Fighter vs E Can Trans
1 Bomber vs Iraq Sub
Reinforce Libya to 4 Inf 1 Armor for the massive Egypt attack with 5+ Inf etc.

So the odd of the air force surviving are as followed (number in parentheses are at least this many fighters):
5 Fighters 28.9% (28.9%)
4 Fighters 23.7% (52.6%)
3 Fighters 12.0% (64.6%)
2 Fighters 4.4% (69.0%)
1 Fighters 0.8% (69.8%)
0 Fighters 30.2%

If you lose 3 or more fighters, you lost the game. So 35.4% of the time, you lost the game after Germany first turn. Of course, even if you do survive with all fighters, the “expert” say you’ll going to lose 90% of the time anyway. (Still working on my depth analysis to arrive at that)

Let’s contrast that with the “suicidal” attack on Karelia (11 Inf, 7 Armor, 5 Fighter, 1 Bomber vs 19 Inf, 3 Armor, 2 Fighters and AAA).

The odd of at least one Armor and this many Air surviving – odd recalculated to including AAA effect (number in parentheses are at least this many air)
6 Air 11.0% (11.0%)
5 Air 11.8% (22.8%)
4 Air 7.6% (30.4%)
3 Air 5.5% (35.9%)
2 Air 4.6% (40.5%)
1 Air 3.8% (47.3%)
0 Air 55.8%

Now, I believe if Germany lose 2 or less airplanes (30.4%), Axis will goes on to win. If Germany lose 4+ airplanes (64.2%) Axis will lose the game.

That’s still a much better odd than the “slow-and-steady” Africa push.

Some stated that what’s the fun in the game if you’re betting it all on one attack (eg 1/3 the time Germany capture Karelia with most air intact and win, or else lose). Well, the same argument can be made for the UK naval attack. What’s the fun in the game if 1/3 the time, you’ll lose most of your air and lost the game. It doesn’t make any difference if the war is one battle or 3 battles.

That’s said, I still don’t believe the Allies will win 90% of the time. How???

[EmuGod]

Japan is the key to the axis victory in my opinion. It needs to expand quickly without over-extending its forces in order to help Germany hold out. I liked your calculations. Maybe you could factor Japanese success into them.

[TG Moses VI]

Actually losing your airpower in the opening turn isn’t as bad as you think if the UK navy also goes down in flames. The reason being is that hardly do you ever commit to another Naval battle if the Allies know what you’re doing (provided you have at least 2 ftrs remaining. You are screwed when it comes to WE and Africa home defense, but in a long game, the Japanese might help you out. Also, what is AAA effect?

[EmuGod]

AAA effect is when your AA batteries on the non-combat move shoot down enemy planes. I’ve seen that happen as Germany to the Soviet Union and to Great Britain by my airforce when they tried to land their planes in an adjacent territory on the non-combat move.

[TG Moses VI]

Okay, sorry, I’m not use to reading those percentage stats.

[BladeXrunners]

AAA effect is adjusting the final combat result after accounting for the initial Anti-Air Artillery. It have a big effect. For example, if no air were shoot down, I believe the probability of success increase by about 20%. If 3 air were shoot down, the probability of success drop to less than 5%. So I take the probability of each outcome (eg what happen if 0 shot down, 1 shot down, etc) and add them all together to arrive at the final number.

AAA doesn’t fire during non-combat move (it’s in the rulebook under AAA). Kinda stupid.

Since Japan goes after UK, I have to figure out all the best move for UK first before I can figure in Japan. Since learning computer programming, so I’ll take me a while to do by hand.

[TG Moses VI]

However, you still have to worry about still have to worry about a counterstrike by USA and UK. With their navy intact, they can still land a decent amount of inf on T1 and T2.

[EmuGod]

Sorry, I got confused with AAAA - Always Active Anti-aircraft battery.