1942.2 Strategic Bombing Raid SBR, Bombers and escorts, Interceptors vs triple A

Based on what I found exploring this topic, I would like to present an SBR and interception House Rule which slightly differ from 1942.2 OOB and meant for 1942 games, at least.

@Baron:

In a Strategic Bombing Raid, before all the incoming StB submit to AA fire @1, there is the possibility to get intercepted.

The escorting rules in a Strategic Bombing Raid give all the attacking planes a same value:

Each Strategic Bomber attack with a preemptive first strike @1,
and same for
Each Escorting Fighter attack with a preemptive first strike @1,

while the defending interceptors have a better defensive roll but a regular one:

Intercepting Fighter defend with a regular @2.

Compared to the Global 1940, SBR rules in which all planes (StB, TcB, Fg) roll once a regular @1.

I find too much uniformity between all aircrafts compared to historical accuracy.

Compared to the other Interception rules, I prefer by far the 1942.2, which I found more historically based and I rationalize this rule that way:

The preemptive first strike for raiders can really be seen as a surprise situation.

Sometimes, defenders are caught off-guard on the airfield but once the interceptors are in the air, they get the advantage:

• they are flying over a known homeland territory,

• pilots have spent less time in the air, are more focussed and less tired,

• planes have plenty of fuel and less restricted on combat maneuver than attacking escorts fighters,

• and defenders can stay longer in the area to patrol against slower or lost attacking planes,

all this can be exemplify by the UK’s pilots experience known via the air Battle of Britain in 1940-41.

Why were the Germans defeated ?

1. The Germans fought too far away from their bases so that refuelling and rearming were impossible. The German fighters had a very limited time which they could spend over Britain before their fuel got too low.

2. British fighters could land, refuel and rearm and be in the air again very quickly.

3. The change of targets was crucial. It is now believed that Fighter Command was perhaps only 24 hours away from defeat when the attack on the cities occurred. The breathing space this gave Fighter Command was crucial.

4. The Hurricane and Spitfire (above) were exceptional planes - capable of taking on the might of the Luftwaffe.

http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/battleofbritain.htm

In game terms and statistics, defending fighter (D@2) are also better than StB (A@1 First Strike) which is not the case in G40 SBR and interception rules, where all is the same.
But…
Giving a better effectiveness to defender with @2 may have a price.

That even giving to both, Fgs and StBs, first strike @1 to counter-weight the better effectiveness of defender is not sufficient.

In SBR in general, the defender have the choice to intercept or not. And will forfeit it if he saw an overwhelming attacking fleet.

On the other part, many times, the simple presence of 1 or 2 Fgs on IC is enough to rebuke the SBR strategy.

Indeed, the SBR in G42.2 is far more dangerous (than G40) for each StB than 1/6 odds of being destroyed as was a regular classic IC AA gun.

So instead of promoting it, interceptor defending @2 increase the risk, on 1:1 basis, to 2/6 + 1/6= around 44% (12+4=16/36) minus around 4% (preemptive strike reduction) near 40% of being destroyed.

Who take the risk of a SBR strategy in 1942.2? and let’s an opportunity to shot any StBomber and even fighter on a SBR when a fighter is in IC territory ?

I think a good SBR need balance (first) then historical accuracy (second).

Do you usually play SBR with the 1942.2 intercepting rules?

Do you prefer G40 over 1942.2 intercepting rules?

Have you the impression that interception rules have a cold shower effect on SBR?

@Baron:

@Baron:

The Triple A 1942.2 SBR rule is each plane get Att or Def @1 and StB get 1D6 damage.

However, the math also shows that it is not better to bring along Fg as escort than throwing only StBs.
Almost the same odds: 0.825 IPC/ SBR run (with 1 StB 1 Fg) vs 0.861 IPC/ SBR run (with 2 StBs).

The only difference is with 2 Bombers there is much risk (of loosing more IPCs) but also much reward (more damage against the defender).

From this, my analysis will be that there is no need to escort 2 bombers or more with Fighters as long as you get a 1:1 ratio against defending interceptors. Better to put your Fgs on other missions.

Below there is the maths.

---

Triple A SBR 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1

Sum: +8.195 - 7.334 = + 0.861 IPCs damage/SBR run

I can also add that it is even more the case with G40 SBR, no need to throw a Fg on an escort mission if you have at least 2 StBs and a 1:1 ratio against defending interceptors.

According to the maths of G40 OOB SBR rules, the odds to inflict damage to the defender are clearly increasing keeping 1:1 ratio, from 1 StB, 1 StB+1Fg and, finally 2 StBs.
The odds of making more damage to defender are even better than a single bomber against an undefended Industrial Complex ! ( +2.583 vs + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run)
G1940: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
Sum: +4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

G1940: 1 StB A1 doing SBR against 1 Fg D1 / damage 1D6+2
Sum: + 4.845 - 3.666 = + 1.179 IPC. damage/SBR run

G40: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2
Sum: +7.775 - 5.33 = + 2.445 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2/StB
Sum: +10.973 - 7.334 = + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run

---

Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor (A1 vs D1, damage 1D6)
Sum: +2.917 - 2 = +0.917 IPC damage/StB

Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB A1 vs 1 Fg D1
Sum: +3.69 - 3.667 = + 0.023 IPC damage/SBR run

Triple A SBR 1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: +6.155 - 5.33 = + 0.825 IPC damage/SBR run

Triple A SBR 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: +8.195 - 7.334 = + 0.861 IPC damage/SBR run

---

OOB SBR rules for 1942.2: 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor damage: 1D6
Sum: + 2.917 - 2 = +.917 IPC damage/SBR run

OOB 1942.2: 1 StB A1 first strike vs 1 Fg D2
Sum: + 3.8 - 4.8 = - 1 IPC damage/SBR run

OOB 1942.2: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 6.018 - 7.555 = - 1.537 IPCs damage/SBR run

OOB 1942.2: 2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +7.547 - 9.556 = - 2.009 IPCs damage/SBR run

---

So the only case for advocating Fg escort is within OOB SBR rules from 1942.2, the odds are less worse for the attacker if it keeps pairing 1 StB with 1 Fg.

Playing 1942.2 online with Triple A SBR rules however, it is a different story. As in G40, 2 StBs has almost the same odds of doing damage as a single StB raid against an undefended IC.
(.861 vs .917 IPC/SBR run)

So, based on these comparative stats, we can say that the actual OOB 1942.2 SBR rules is more historical than the 2 others, since the game mechanics give less risks for bombers when paired to Fg but it is at the expense of making SBR strategies much less appealing for attacker, and for Allies in particular.

Here is my little twist to improve the SBR balance while keeping an historical feel which can provide incentive for escorting bombers with Fighters.

StBs are making regular A1 in air-to-air (instead of preemptive first strike roll @1 per 1942.2 OOB SBR rules) but their damage is increase to 1D6+2 (as in G40 OOB).
Each intercepting Fg still keep regular D2.
Each escorting Fg also keeps preemptive first strike A1 but also gives a combined arms effect to all escorted bombers, which get A1 preemptive roll.
It only needs 1 Fg unit amongst the attacker SBR fleet to give all bombers their preemptive strike A1.
In-built AAA from IC rolls, as OOB, 1@1 against each Bomber.

Optionnal limitation rule : in air-to-air combat, bombers cannot get more rolls than the numbers of defending Fgs interceptors.
(Ex: 3 StBs+1 Fg vs 2 Fgs. Only 2 StBs can roll a preemptive strike A1 in addition to the Fg escort first strike roll A1.)

• By keeping the A1 vs D2 dynamics of 1942.2 OOB SBR, it keeps the main historical feels of air-to-air battle. And gives defending fighters an advantage over attacking planes.

• By increasing damage to IC by +2, it will provides an incentive for defender to intercept bombers instead of letting them just go through IC’s AAA unopposed.
  It will also give better positive odds of making more damage to defender than suffering it compared to the actual 1942.2 OOB SBR.

• By lowering the bomber air-to-air attack roll to regular A1, it will make bombers only SBR much riskier for attacker but still providing a big reward against IC with the +2 damage bonus. This HR (2 StBs A1 regular against 2 intercepting Fgs D2 +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR) compared to 1942.2 OOB SBR (2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 Fgs D2 +7.547 - 9.556 = - 2.009 IPCs damage/SBR) gives better odds and increase damage to IC.

• The combined arms bonus of Fg for StB will also makes a good and historical incentive to bring at least 1 Fg escort to increase their odds of survival in air-to-air combat against interceptors.
  Compared to Triple A and G40 mechanics in which 2 Bombers are always better than 1 Bomber and 1 Fighter to increase odds of making damage over suffering damage.

  With this HR, the break even point will be 1 StB & 1 Fg (2A@1 first strike) doing SBR against 2 Fgs (2D@2) Sum: + 7.554 - 7.564 = - 0.01 IPC damage/SBR.
  While in G40 (+ 2.445 IPCs damage/SBR) and Triple A (+ 0.825 IPC damage/SBR) this same situation the odds are still unhistorically better for the attacker!!!???
  And, to the contrary in 1942.2 OOB SBR, from the attacker POV, it is really not worthing the risk (+ 6.018 - 7.555 = - 1.537 IPCs damage/SBR).

Here is some maths evaluation to compare with other actual rules (provided in the above quote) :

1942.2 SBR HRules : 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6+2
5/6 StB survived * 5.5 IPCs = 4.583 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs

Sum: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

1942.2 SBR HRules :1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2

StB roll /Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

1/62/66/6= 12/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 5.556%
1/64/61/6= 4/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 1.852%
1/64/65/6= 20/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed: 9.259%

5/62/66/6= 60/216 StB killed by Fg: 27.778%
5/64/61/6= 20/216 StB killed by AAA: 9.259%
5/64/65/6= 100/216 both survived: 46.296%

Results:
Bombard on IC 120/216= 55.556% * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 3.056 IPCs
killing Fg 36/216= 16.667% *+10 IPC = + 1.667 IPC
StB killed 96/216= 44.444% *-12 IPCs = - 5.333 IPCs
Sum: + 4.723 - 5.333 = - 0.61 IPC. damage/SBR run

1942.2 SBR HR: 1 StB A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/620/366/6 = 120/1296 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
1/616/361/6= 16/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1/616/365/6 = 80/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg

5/620/366/6 = 600/1296 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
5/616/361/6 = 80/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/616/365/6 = 400/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 480/1296= 37.037% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +2.037 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 216/1296= 16.667% +10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPCs
1 StB killed: 816/1296= 62.963%-12 IPCs = - 7.556 IPCs

Sum: +3.704- 7.556 = - 3.852 IPCs damage/SBR run

1942.2 HR: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike (due to combined arms with Fg escort) doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/3636/361/6 = 36/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .5%
1/3636/365/6 = 180/7776 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 2.3%

10/3612/361/6 = 120/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.5%
10/3612/365/6 = 600/7776 1 Fg vs 1 Fg : 7.7%
10/3624/361/6= 240/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.1%
10/3624/365/6 = 1200/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 15.4%

25/364/366/6 = 600/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty : 7.7%
25/3616/361/6 = 400/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.2%
25/3616/365/6 = 2000/7776 1 Fg vs no casualty : 25.7%
25/3616/361/6 = 400/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.2%
25/3616/365/6 = 2000/7776 no casualty at all : 25.7%

Results:
Bombard on IC: 76.8% * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.224 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 2.8%+20 IPCs = + 0.56 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 27.7% +10 IPCs = + 2.77 IPCs
Fg killed: 33.4%-10 IPCs = - 3.34 IPCs
StB killed: 8.8%-12 IPCs = - 1.056 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 14.4%*-22 IPCs = - 3.168 IPCs

Sum: + 7.554 - 7.564 = - 0.01 IPC damage/SBR run

1942.2 SBR HR: 2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/364/3636/36 = 144/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs: 0.309%
1/3616/366/36 = 96/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.206%
1/3616/3630/36 = 480/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs : 1.029%
1/3616/361/36 = 16/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.034%
1/3616/3610/36 = 160/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.343%
1/3616/3625/36 = 400/46656 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 0.857%

10/364/3636/36 = 1440/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs 1 Fg: 3.086%
10/3616/366/36 = 960/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 2.058%
10/3616/3630/36 = 4800/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg : 10.288%
10/3616/361/36= 160/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.343%
10/3616/3610/36= 1600/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.429%
10/3616/3625/36 = 4000/46656 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 8.573%

25/364/3636/36 = 3600/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 7.716%
25/3616/366/36 = 2400/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.144%
25/3616/3630/36 = 12000/46656 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 25.72%
25/3616/361/36 = 400/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 0.857%
25/3616/3610/36 = 4000/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.573%
25/3616/3625/36 = 10000/46656 no casualty at all : 21.433%

Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 14400/46656= 30.864% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 3.395 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 23040/46656= 49.383% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +2.716 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 1296/46656= 2.778%+20 IPCs = + 0.556 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 12960/46656= 27.778% +10 IPCs = + 2.778 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 9216/46656= 19.753%-24 IPCs = - 4.741 IPCs
1 StB killed: 23040/46656= 49.383%-12 IPCs = - 5.926 IPCs

Sum: +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR run

1942.2 HR: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike (due to combined arms with Fg escort) doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/366/61/6= 66/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/366/65/6 = 330/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg

25/362/61/6 = 50/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/362/65/6 = 250/1296 1 Fg vs no casualty
25/364/61/6 = 100/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/364/65/6 = 500/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 1080/1296 = 83.333% * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.583 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 396/1296 = 30.556% +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
Fg killed: 300/1296 = 23.148%-10 IPCs = - 2.31 IPCs
StB killed: 216/1296 = 16.667%-12 IPCs = - 2 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 50/1296 = 3.858%-22 IPCs = - 0.849 IPCs

Sum: + 7.639 - 5.159 = + 2.48 IPCs damage/SBR run

1942.2 SBR HR: 2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/362/66/36 = 132/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/362/630/36 = 660/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
11/364/61/36 = 44/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/364/610/36 = 440/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/364/625/36 = 1100/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg

25/362/66/36 = 300/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/362/630/36 = 1500/7776 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty
25/364/61/36 = 100/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/364/610/36 = 1000/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/364/625/36 = 2500/7776 no casualty at all

Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 3600/7776= 46.296% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 5.093 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 3600/7776= 49.296% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.546 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 2332/7776= 29.999% +10 IPCs = + 3.00 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 576/7776= 7.407%-24 IPCs = - 1.778 IPCs
1 StB killed: 3600/7776= 46.296%*-12 IPCs = - 5.556 IPCs

Sum: +10.639 - 7.334 = + 3.304 IPCs damage/SBR run

1942.2 SBR HR: 2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
With optionnal limitation rule: in air-to-air combat, bombers cannot get more rolls than the numbers of defending Fgs interceptors.
StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/62/66/36 = 12/1296 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1/62/630/36 = 60/1296 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
1/64/61/36 = 4/1296 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1/64/610/36 = 40/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1/64/625/36 = 100/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg

5/62/66/36 = 60/1296 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/62/630/36 = 300/1296 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty
5/64/61/36 = 20/1296 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/64/610/36 = 200/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/64/625/36 = 500/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 600/1296= 46.296% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 5.093 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 600/1296= 49.296% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.546 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 216/1296= 16.667% +10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 96/1296= 7.407%-24 IPCs = - 1.778 IPCs
1 StB killed: 600/1296= 46.296%*-12 IPCs = - 5.556 IPCs

Sum: +9.306 - 7.334 = + 1.972 IPCs damage/SBR run

To give everyone an opportunity to make his own mind about which SBR rules is his prefered one, and their impact and odds, here is a complete summary of all the calc results about various SBR rules with different combination of units:

G1940 OOB SBR:
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
Sum: +4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1 damage: 1D6+2
Sum: + 5.486 - 3.667 = + 1.819 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2
Sum: +7.775 - 5.33 = + 2.445 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2
Sum: +10.973 - 7.334 = + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: +11.459 - 5.666 = + 5.793 IPCs damage/SBR run

Triple A SBR for 1942.2:
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor (damage 1D6)
Sum: +2.917 - 2 = +0.917 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1
Sum: +3.69 - 3.667 = + 0.023 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 / damage 1D6
Sum: + 2.025 - 5.056 = - 3.031 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: +6.155 - 5.33 = + 0.825 IPC damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: +8.195 - 7.334 = + 0.861 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: + 5.973 - 3.667 = + 2.306 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: +8.403 - 5.666 = + 2.737 IPCs damage/StB

OOB SBR rules for 1942.2:
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor damage: 1D6
Sum: + 2.917 - 2 = +0.917 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 first strike against 1 Fg D2
Sum: + 3.8 - 4.8 = - 1 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2 / damage 1D6
Sum: + 3.071 - 7.185 = - 4.114 IPC. damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 6.018 - 7.555 = - 1.537 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +7.547 - 9.556 = - 2.009 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: + 5.973 - 5.159 = + 0.814 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: + 8.214 - 6.315 = + 1.899 IPCs damage/SBR run

1942.2 SBR House Rules :
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6+2
Sum: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2
Sum: + 4.723 - 5.333 = - 0.61 IPC. damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +3.704 - 7.556 = - 3.852 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike (due to combined arms with Fg escort) doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 7.554 - 7.564 = - 0.01 IPC damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike (due to combined arms with Fg escort) doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: + 7.639 - 5.159 = + 2.48 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: +10.639 - 7.334 = + 3.304 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
With optionnal limitation rule: in air-to-air combat, bombers cannot get more rolls than the numbers of defending Fgs interceptors.
StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

Sum: +9.306 - 7.334 = + 1.972 IPCs damage/SBR run

Here is a link to NightBombing SBR various approach and stats:
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=33329.msg1280598#msg1280598

The two opening posts are now revised and completed.
Hope you will find some daring ideas and
useful maths tables when developping your own SBR rules or just pondering if one bombing raid with such units against such other units worth the risk or not.

Down below here is a completly different way of doing SBR for 1942.2

Strategic Bomber in air-to-air combat SBR:
Attack 0
Bombard IC damage: 1D6+2

Fighter in air-to-air combat SBR:
Attack 1
Defend 1

IC’s AAA: @1 against each Strategic Bomber

1942.2 SBR HRules with StB A0 and Fg A1 D1 : damage 1D6+2

1 Strategic Bomber doing SBR against no interceptor

AAA roll = odds casualties

5/6 StB survived * 5.5 IPCs = +4.583 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs

Sum: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 Strategic Bomber Att 0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor Def 1

Interceptor Fg roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/66/6 = 6/36 1 StB killed by Fg
5/61/6 = 5/36 1 StB killed by AAA
5/6*5/6 = 25/36 No casualty at all.

Results:
Bombard on IC 25/36* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 3.819 IPCs
StB killed 11/36 *-12 IPCs = - 3.667 IPCs
Sum: + 3.819 - 3.667 = + 0.152 IPC. damage/SBR run

1 Strategic Bomber Att 0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors Def 1

Interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/366/6 = 66/216 1 StB killed by Fg
25/361/6 = 25/216 1 StB killed by AAA
25/36*5/6 = 125/216 No casualty at all.

Results:
Bombard on IC 125/216* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 3.183 IPCs
StB killed 91/216 *-12 IPCs = - 5.056 IPCs
Sum: + 3.183 - 5.056 = - 1.873 IPC. damage/SBR run

1 Fighter Att 1 and 1 Strategic Bomber Att 0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors Def 1

Fighter roll/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/61/366/6 = 6/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg
1/610/361/6= 10/1296 1 Fg killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1/610/365/6= 50/1296 1 Fg killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
1/625/361/6 = 25/1296 1 StB killed by AAA
1/625/365/6 = 125/1296 No casualty vs 1 Fg

5/620/366/6 = 600/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
5/616/361/6 = 80/1296 1 Fg killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/616/365/6 = 400/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 1050/1296 * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.456 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 216/1296 +10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPCs
Fg killed: 300/1296-10 IPCs = - 2.315 IPCs
StB killed: 150/1296*-12 IPCs = - 1.389IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 96/1296*-22 IPCs = - 1.630 IPCs

Sum: + 6.123 - 5.334 = + 0.789 IPC damage/SBR run

1 Fighter Att 1 and 1 Strategic Bomber Att 0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor Def 1

Fighter roll/interceptor Fg roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/61/61/6= 1/216 1 Fg killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1/61/65/6= 5/216 1 Fg killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
1/65/61/6 = 5/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1/65/65/6 = 25/216 No casualty vs 1 Fg

5/61/61/6 = 5/216 1 Fg killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/61/65/6 = 25/216 1 Fg killed by Fg vs no casualty
5/65/61/6 = 25/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/65/65/6 = 125/216 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 180/216 * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.583 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 36/216 +10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPCs
Fg killed:30/216-10 IPCs = - 1.389 IPCs
StB killed: 30/216*-12 IPCs = - 1.667 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 6/216*-22 IPCs = - 0.611 IPC

Sum: + 6.250 - 3.667 = + 2.583 IPC damage/SBR run

2 Strategic Bombers Att 0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors Def 1

Interceptor Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/3636/36= 36/1296 2 StBs killed by Fgs
10/366/36 = 60/1296 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA
10/6*30/36= 300/1296 1 StB killed by Fg

25/361/36 = 25/1296 2 StBs killed by AAA
25/3610/36 = 250/1296 1 StB killed by AAA
25/36*25/36 = 625/1296 No casualty at all.

Results:
2x Bombard on IC 625/1296* ((2+4)+(12+4) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = +5.305 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC 550/1296* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.334 IPCs
2 StBs killed 121/1296*-24 IPCs = - 2.241 IPCs
1 StB killed 550/1296*-12 IPCs = - 5.093 IPCs
Sum: + 7.639 - 7.334 = + 0.305 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 Strategic Bombers Att 0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor Def 1

Interceptor Fg roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/66/36 = 6/216 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA
1/630/36= 30/216 1 StB killed by Fg
5/61/36 = 5/216 2 StBs killed by AAA
5/610/36 = 50/216 1 StB killed by AAA
5/6*25/36 = 125/216 No casualty at all.

Results:
2x Bombard on IC 125/216* ((2+4)+(12+4) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = +6.366 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC 80/216* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.037 IPCs
2 StBs killed 11/216*-24 IPCs = - 1.222 IPC
1 StB killed 80/216*-12 IPCs = - 4.444 IPCs
Sum: + 8.403 - 5.666 = + 2.737 IPCs damage/SBR run

Summary:
1 Strategic Bomber doing SBR against no interceptor
Sum: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1
Sum: + 3.819 - 3.667 = + 0.152 IPC. damage/SBR run

1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1
Sum: + 3.183 - 5.056 = - 1.873 IPC. damage/SBR run

1 Fighter A1 and 1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1
Sum: + 6.123 - 5.334 = + 0.789 IPC damage/SBR run

2 Strategic Bombers A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1
Sum: + 7.639 - 7.334 = + 0.305 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 Fighter A1 and 1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1
Sum: + 6.250 - 3.667 = + 2.583 IPC damage/SBR run

2 Strategic Bombers A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1
Sum: + 8.403 - 5.666 = + 2.737 IPCs damage/SBR run

Comparison of this HR with Triple A SBR for 1942.2

1942.2 SBR HRules with StB A0 and Fg A1 D1 : damage 1D6+2  Triple A SBR for 1942.2: damage 1D6

1 Strategic Bomber doing SBR against no interceptor            1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
Sum: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run                Sum: +2.917 - 2 = +0.917 IPC damage/SBR run

1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1    1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1
Sum: + 3.819 - 3.667 = + 0.152 IPC. damage/SBR run        Sum: +3.69 - 3.667 = + 0.023 IPC damage/SBR run

1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1      1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 3.183 - 5.056 = - 1.873 IPC. damage/SBR run              Sum: + 2.025 - 5.056 = - 3.031 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 Fighter A1 and 1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1       1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 6.123 - 5.334 = + 0.789 IPC damage/SBR run              Sum: +6.155 - 5.33 = + 0.825 IPC damage/SBR run

2 Strategic Bombers A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1        2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 7.639 - 7.334 = + 0.305 IPCs damage/SBR run              Sum: +8.195 - 7.334 = + 0.861 IPC damage/SBR run

1 Fighter A1 and 1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1      1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: + 6.250 - 3.667 = + 2.583 IPC damage/SBR run        Sum: + 5.973 - 3.667 = + 2.306 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 Strategic Bombers A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1        2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: + 8.403 - 5.666 = + 2.737 IPCs damage/SBR run        Sum: +8.403 - 5.666 = + 2.737 IPCs damage/StB

I’m looking for a balance but more historical way of doing G40 SBR.

1. The first thing I got in mind was to simply give all Fgs a preemptive first strike A/D @1.
   All Tactical and Strategical bomber keep a regular A1.

Would it be still balance and worth the try?

2. Another way was to give @1 first strike only to defending interceptors.

3. And a third option was to allow defending interceptors another defense roll @1 in a second combat cycle of air-to-air.

To get any conclusion about them, I must first make some stats table.

G1940 SBR with Fg A/D@1 first strike:
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
5/6 StB survived * 5.5 IPCs = 4.583 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs

Sum: 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/StB

1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1 first strike

StB roll / Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

116= 6/216 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
151= 5/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed
155= 25/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed

516= 30/216 StB killed by Fg
551= 25/216 StB killed by AAA
555= 125/216 both survived

Results:
Bombard IC: 150/216= 69.444% * ((1+2)+(6+2)/2) IPCs= + 5.5 IPCs) = 3.819 IPCs
killing Fg: 30/216= 13.889% *+10 IPCs = + 1.389 IPC
StB killed: 66/216= 30.556% *-12 IPCs = - 3.667 IPCs

Sum: + 5.208 - 3.667 = + 1.541 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 against 2 Fgs D1 first strike

StB roll / Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

1116= 66/216 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
1251= 25/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed
1255= 125/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed

5116= 330/216 StB killed by Fg
5251= 125/216 StB killed by AAA
5255= 625/216 both survived

Results:
Bombard IC: 750/1296= 57.87% * ((1+2)+(6+2)/2) IPCs= + 5.5 IPCs) = + 3.183 IPCs
killing 1 Fg: 150/1296= 11.574% *+10 IPCs = + 1.157 IPC
StB killed: 546/1296= 42.150% *-12 IPCs = - 5.056IPCs

Sum: + 4.340 - 5.056 = - 0.716 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fgs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fg D1 first strike

Interceptors Fgs roll/ StB+Fg rolls/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/366/366/6 = 36/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg
1/3630/366/6 = 180/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fgs vs no casualty

10/361/361/6 = 10/7776 1 Fg killed by Fgs and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs
10/361/365/6 = 50/7776 1 Fg killed by Fgs vs 2 Fgs
10/3610/361/6 = 100/7776 1 Fg killed by Fgs and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
10/3610/365/6 = 500/7776 1 Fg killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg
10/3625/361/6 = 250/7776 1 Fg killed by Fgs and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
10/3625/365/6 = 1250/7776 1 Fg killed by Fgs vs no casualty

25/361/361/6 = 25/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs
25/361/365/6 = 125/7776 no casualty vs 2 Fgs
25/3610/361/6 = 250/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
25/3610/365/6 = 1250/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg
25/3625/361/6 = 625/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/3625/365/6 = 3125/7776 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 6300/7776 = 81.019% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.456 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 2136/7776 = 27.469%* +10 IPCs = + 2.747 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 210/7776= 2.701* +20 IPCs = + 0.540 IPC
1 Fg killed: 2136/7776 = 27.469%* -10 IPCs = - 2.747 IPCs
StB killed: 900/7776 = 11.574%-12 IPCs = - 1.389 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 576/7776 = 7.407%-22 IPCs = - 1.630 IPCs

Sum: + 7.743 - 5.766= + 1.977 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1 first strike

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/361/61/6 = 11/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/361/65/6 = 55/1296 1 Fg vs 1 Fg
11/365/61/6 = 55/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/365/65/6 = 275/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg

25/361/61/6 = 25/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/361/65/6 = 125/1296 1 Fg vs no casualty
25/365/61/6 = 125/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/365/65/6 = 625/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 1080/1296 = 83.333% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.583 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 396/1296 = 30.556%* +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
Fg killed: 180/1296 = 13.889%* -10 IPCs = - 1.389 IPCs
StB killed: 180/1296 = 13.889%-12 IPCs = - 1.667 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 36/1296 = 2.778%-22 IPCs = - 0.611 IPCs

Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 HR Fg A1 regular D1 first strike 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1 first strike

interceptor Fg roll / Fg roll/ StB roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1611 = 6/1296 1 Fg killed and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1615 = 30/1296 1 Fg killed vs 1 Fg
1651 = 30/1296 1 Fg killed and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
1655 = 150/1296 1 Fg killed vs no casualty

5161 = 30/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
5165 = 150/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg
5511 = 25/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
5515 = 125/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg
5551 = 125/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5555 = 625/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 1080/1296 = 83.333% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.583 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 366/1296 = 28.241%* +10 IPCs = + 2.824 IPCs
Fg killed: 180/1296 = 13.889%* -10 IPCs = - 1.389 IPCs
StB killed: 180/1296 = 13.889%-12 IPCs = - 1.667 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 36/1296 = 2.778%-22 IPCs = - 0.611 IPCs

Sum: + 7.407 - 3.667 = + 3.740 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StB A1 against 2 Fgs D1 first strike

Fg roll / StBs roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

1/3636/3636/36= 1296/46656 2 StBs killed by Fgs vs no casualty

106/366/36= 360/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB by AAA vs 1 Fg killed
106/3630/36= 1800/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg killed
1030/366/36= 1800/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB by AAA vs no casualty
1030/3630/36= 9000/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty

251/361= 25/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs
251/3610= 250/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs
251/3625= 625/46656 both survived vs 2 Fgs
2510/361= 250/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
2510/3610= 2500/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
2510/3625= 6250/46656 both survived vs 1 Fg
2525/361= 625/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
2525/3610= 6250/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
2525/3625= 15625/46656 no casualty at all

Results:
2x Bombard IC: 22500/46656= 48.225%* ((2+4)+(12+4)/2) IPCs = + 11 IPCs) = + 5.305 IPCs
1x Bombard IC: 19800/46656= 42.438% * ((1+2)+(6+2)/2) IPCs= + 5.5 IPCs) = + 2.334 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 11160/46656= 23.920% *+10 IPCs = + 2.392 IPC
Killing 2 Fg: 900/46656= 1.929% * + 20 IPCs = + 0.386 IPCs
1 StB killed: 19800/46656= 42.438% *-12 IPCs = -5.093 IPCs
2 StB killed: 4356/46656 = 9.336% * -24 IPCs = -2.241 IPCs
Sum: + 10.417 - 7.334 = + 3.083 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1 first strike

Fg roll / StBs roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

16/366/36= 36/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB by AAA vs 1 Fg killed
16/3630/36= 180/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg killed
130/366/36= 180/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB by AAA vs no casualty
130/3630/36= 900/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty

511/361= 55/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
511/3610= 550/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
511/3625= 1375/7776 both survived vs 1 Fg
525/361= 125/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
525/3610= 1250/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
525/3625= 3125/7776 no casualty at all

Results:
2x Bombard IC: 4500/7776= 57.870%* ((2+4)+(12+4)/2) IPCs = + 11 IPCs) = + 6.366 IPCs
1x Bombard IC: 2880/7776= 37.037% * ((1+2)+(6+2)/2) IPCs= + 5.5 IPCs) = + 2.037 IPCs
1 killing Fg: 2196/7776= 28.241% *+10 IPCs = + 2.824 IPC
1 StB killed: 2880/7776= 37.037% *-12 IPCs = - 4.444 IPCs
2 StB killed: 396/7776 = 5.093% * -24 IPCs = -1.222 IPCs
Sum: + 11.227 - 5.666 = + 5.561 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 HR Fg A1 reg or first strike D1 first strike: 2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1 first strike
With optionnal limitation rule: in air-to-air combat, bombers cannot get more rolls than the numbers of defending Fgs interceptors.
StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

Fg roll / StBs roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

11/66/36= 6/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB by AAA vs 1 Fg killed
11/630/36=30/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg killed
15/66/36= 30/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB by AAA vs no casualty
15/630/36= 150/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty

51/61= 5/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
51/610= 50/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
51/625= 125/7776 both survived vs 1 Fg
55/61= 25/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
55/610= 250/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
55/625= 625/7776 no casualty at all

Results:
2x Bombard IC: 750/1296= 57.870%* ((2+4)+(12+4)/2) IPCs = + 11 IPCs) = + 6.366 IPCs
1x Bombard IC: 480/1296= 37.037% * ((1+2)+(6+2)/2) IPCs= + 5.5 IPCs) = + 2.037 IPCs
1 killing Fg: 216/1296= 16.667% *+10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPC
1 StB killed: 480/1296= 37.037% *-12 IPCs = - 4.444 IPCs
2 StB killed: 66/7776 = 5.093% * -24 IPCs = -1.222 IPCs
Sum: + 10.07 - 5.666 = + 4.404 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 HR 2 defense cycles: 1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1 for 2 combat cycles: making another defense roll @1 after the first cycle.

StB roll / Fg roll /Fg roll 2nd cycle/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1166= 36/1296 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg killed
1561= 30/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed
156*5= 150/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed

5166= 180/1296 StB killed by Fg
5516= 150/1296 StB killed by Fg 2nd cycle
5551= 125/1296 StB killed by AAA
5555= 625/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard IC: 775/1296 = 59.799% * ((1+2)+(6+2)/2) IPCs= + 5.5 IPCs) = 3.289 IPCs
killing Fg : 216/1296= 16.667% *+10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPC
StB killed: 521/1296= 40.201% *-12 IPCs = - 4.824 IPCs

Sum: + 4.956 - 4.824 = + 0.132 IPC damage/SBR run

G40 HR 2 defense cycles: 1 StB A1 against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 for 2 combat cycles: making another defense roll @1 after the first cycle.

StB roll / Fgs roll /Fgs roll 2nd cycle/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/611/3636/366/6= 2376/46656 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg
1/625/366/366/6= 900/46656 1 StB killed by 1 Fg 2nd cycle vs 1 Fg
1/625/3630/361/6 = 750/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1/625/3630/365/6 = 3750/46656 no casualty vs 1 Fg

5/611/3636/366/6 = 11880/46656 1 StB killed by Fgs vs no casualty
5/625/3611/366/6 = 8250/46656 1 StB killed by Fgs 2nd cycle vs no casualty
5/625/3625/361/6 = 3125/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/625/3625/365/6 = 15625/46656 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 19375/46656= 41.527% * ((1+2) +(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = 2.284 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 7776/46656= 16.667% +10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPCs
StB killed: 27281/46656= 58.473%-12 IPCs = - 7.017 IPCs

Sum: + 3.951 - 7.017 = - 3.066 IPCs damage/SBR run

To be continued…

Summary:

G1940 HR SBR with Fg A/D@1 first strike:
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
Sum: 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/StB

1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1 first strike
Sum: + 5.208 - 3.667 = + 1.541 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 against 2 Fgs D1 first strike
Sum: + 4.340 - 5.056 = - 0.716 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fgs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fg D1 first strike
Sum: + 7.743 - 5.766 = + 1.977 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StB A1 against 2 Fgs D1 first strike
Sum: + 10.417 - 7.334 = + 3.083 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1 first strike
Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1 first strike
Sum: + 11.227 - 5.666 = + 5.561 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 HR Fg A1 regular D1 first strike
1 StB & 1 Fg A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1 first strike
Sum: + 7.407 - 3.667 = + 3.740 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 HR Fg A1 regular or first strike D1 first strike: 2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1 first strike
With optionnal limitation rule: in air-to-air combat, bombers cannot get more rolls than the numbers of defending Fgs interceptors.
StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

Sum: + 10.07 - 5.666 = + 4.404 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 HR 2 defense cycles: 1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1 for 2 combat cycles: making another defense roll @1 after the first cycle.
Sum: + 4.956 - 4.824 = + 0.132 IPC damage/SBR run

G40 HR 2 defense cycles: 1 StB A1 against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 for 2 combat cycles: making another defense roll @1 after the first cycle.
Sum: + 3.951 - 7.017 = - 3.066 IPCs damage/SBR run

G1940 SBR:
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
Sum: +4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1 damage: 1D6+2
Sum: + 5.486 - 3.667 = + 1.819 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2
Sum: +7.775 - 5.33 = + 2.445 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1 damage: 1D6+2
Sum: +10.973 - 7.334 = + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: +11.459 - 5.666 = + 5.793 IPCs damage/SBR run

Comparative summary:
G40 House Rule SBR giving all Fgs @1 first strike compared to G40 OOB SBR all planes @1.

G1940 HR SBR with Fg A/D@1 first strike:
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
Sum: 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run OOB: Sum: +4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1 first strike
Sum: + 5.208 - 3.667 = + 1.541 IPC damage/SBR run � OOB: Sum: + 5.486 - 3.667 = + 1.819 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 against 2 Fgs D1 first strike
Sum: + 4.340 - 5.056 = - 0.716 IPC damage/SBR run � OOB: Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fgs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fg D1 first strike
Sum: + 7.743 - 5.766= + 1.977 IPCs damage/SBR run � OOB: Sum: +7.775 - 5.33 = + 2.445 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StB A1 against 2 Fgs D1 first strike
Sum: + 10.417 - 7.334 = + 3.083 IPCs damage/SBR run OOB: Sum: +10.973 - 7.334 = + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1 first strike
Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run OOB: Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1 first strike
Sum: + 11.227 - 5.666 = + 5.561 IPCs damage/SBR run OOB: Sum: +11.459 - 5.666 = + 5.793 IPCs damage/SBR run

@Baron:

I’m looking for a balance but more historical way of doing G40 SBR.

1. The first thing I got in mind was to simply give all Fgs a preemptive first strike A/D @1.
   All Tactical and Strategical bomber keep a regular A1.

Would it be still balance and worth the try?

2. Another way was to give @1 first strike only to defending interceptors.

3. And a third option was to allow defending interceptors another defense roll @1 in a second combat cycle of air-to-air.

To get any conclusion about them, I must first make some stats table.

---

Comparative summary:
G40 House Rule SBR giving all Fgs @1 first strike compared to G40 OOB SBR all planes @1.

G1940 HR SBR with Fg A/D@1 first strike:
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
Sum: 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run OOB: Sum: +4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1 first strike
Sum: + 5.208 - 3.667 = + 1.541 IPC damage/SBR run OOB: Sum: + 5.486 - 3.667 = + 1.819 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 against 2 Fgs D1 first strike
Sum: + 4.340 - 5.056 = - 0.716 IPC damage/SBR run OOB: Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fgs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fg D1 first strike
Sum: + 7.743 - 5.766 = + 1.977 IPCs damage/SBR run � OOB: Sum: +7.775 - 5.33 = + 2.445 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StB A1 against 2 Fgs D1 first strike
Sum: + 10.417 - 7.334 = + 3.083 IPCs damage/SBR run OOB: Sum: +10.973 - 7.334 = + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1 first strike
Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run OOB: Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1 first strike
Sum: + 11.227 - 5.666 = + 5.561 IPCs damage/SBR run OOB: Sum: +11.459 - 5.666 = + 5.793 IPCs damage/SBR run

---

G40 HR Fg A1 regular or first strike D1 first strike:
2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D1 first strike
With optionnal limitation rule: in air-to-air combat, bombers cannot get more rolls than the numbers of defending Fgs interceptors.
StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

Sum: + 10.07 - 5.666 = + 4.404 IPCs damage/SBR run

Based on this comparative table of 7 basic situations,
I can say that giving First Strike to all Fighters is a little twist which cannot change radically the balance but can add an element of historical feel about the air superiority of Fighters against bombers: speed and maneuverability.

Strategic bomber alone are going to be a little weaker from OOB but not that much.
Especially compared to the 1942.2 SBR or my HR version of 1942.2 SBR, they still give very advantageous odds.
And, in many situations, bringing escort Fighters will keep the odds at the same level as OOB G40 SBR.

The only SBR house rules which can make large bombers only fleet acting more like bombers during raid instead of giving the impression of chasing an inferior number of enemy interceptors is to add this restrictive house rules on air-to-air combat:
in air-to-air combat, bombers cannot get more attacking rolls than the numbers of defending Fgs interceptors.

This way, it will still make sense to bring Fgs escort along StBs, otherwise an StB only fleet will always be more destructive than any escorted ones, keeping the same number of planes as a comparison basis.

@Black_Elk:

This thread has too much good information to let it sit for an entire year without comment.
:-D

Right now my group doesn’t play with escort/intercept rules, because it just doesn’t seem worth the risk to the fighters (in either role). So when the rules are in effect it mainly serves to discourage bombing altogether.

With altered abilites, like the ones suggested here, I might be more inclined to play the Escort/intercept game.

I think you probably need 3 things to bring Air into balance:
a.  an improved SBR mechanic.

b. Better Anti-Aircraft Artillery units Abilities. Like one that can move in combat, with a normal attack defense value of 1, in addition to a one time opening shot vs air, or something along those lines.

c. Some form of naval AA-fire.

I think you have touched on all the essentials here. And have brought up the others before. In addition to working out a dogfight system. The stats in thread are compelling and demonstrate how the first aspect “improved sbr” might be approached.

Nice work, as always

Thank you very much.
I forgot this thread, I will probably use some stats into my Summary thread under construction about various SBRs.

Nonetheless, it needs full focus to really weight all the aspects of SBR with all these numbers.
I can easily understand you need to be in a certain “vibe” to read this kind of posts, hence it was quite dusty.

Besides, I agree on your analysis of these 3 points a, b, c. They need to be coordinate to get a better game.
I made a lot of posts on these points over months.
Need to find the good angle to get a fresh start on these.