@zooooma:
@Romulus:
Some weeks ago I was accused of being too much lucky in a TripleA LL games becuse my dice hits more than the expected average…
Ironically LL can be more luck because fewer dice are tossed. Standard deviation is higher in a smaller sized sample. :P
I agree!
Moreover a small sized sample is not “statistically meaninguful” in the sense that statisctics laws can not apply to a set of too feew elements. So for being correct we can even not speak of standard deviation if we have too few results to consider.
Moreover, opening moves, which involve battles with few units, are influenced by the variance of the dice rolling. In such battles the balancing effects of the “average hits” are less important than the single die rolled so missing the hit with the die may still causing problem. In the same way battling on the front line and achieving 1 hit more than the average (scoring with the die) is still “disturbing” to some player.
I found interesting your consideration about the “underdog” concept.
I said that I think of ADS and LL as different in the skills required.
IMHO, ADS requires a greater effort in strategic planning for handling also adverse results and call for a strong risk management in making strategic and tactic decision. Also the logistic of the game is indirectly influenced by the battle resolving method, losses in battle and reinforcement needed are not simple to foresee, so a player have to plan is logistic not knowing all the variables.
(By the way risk management is a discipline, for example in handling software development projects, so it is not a contradiction speaking of trying to handle risks.)
In LL my idea is that the great skills a player should have, in addition to strategic ability, are the ability to make optimal forces allocation, in minimizing risks (not managing or handling but “minimizing” i.e. avoiding it at all, trying to avoid them being a factor). Strategic decision are still hard to do but logistic is simplified, because a player think in advance to force allocations, it is quite mathematic to know what he is going to lose in the battle, wich will be the position and wich kind of reinforcement will be needed and where.