Thoughtful analysis. I’m in just my first game of A&A 1940 Europe (having a few years of experience with the original in the 1980s, and lots of other board games since). We’ve noticed the French problem in our first game, it is pretty easy for Germany to defend the Atlantic Wall. We’ve also experienced the Soviet problem: there really should be more territorial divisions to emulate the expanse of the country.
One idea specific to the defense of the Soviet Union that would be nice is encirclement. There were times as the Soviets when an encirclement of highly aggressive German forces would have been possible. A rule change I’m pondering is that when an encirclement has been made, on the following turn defending armor and mech have one less combat value. This would represent the lack of fuel and the effect of being out of supply. This would happen likely naturally around Leningrad, but could also happen tactically throughout the country.
One more thought is making the Volga more important. Perhaps no blitzing past the Volga makes sense, as Germany really shouldn’t be able to blitz that deeply into the Soviet Union. It obviously didn’t happen historically, but it couldn’t have in any event. The expanse is too vast and the infrastructure (not to mention the weather) too poor for blitzing.