Bidding Systems

[DarthMaximus]

@warman1999:

@DarthMaximus:

Wow, I can’t see how any Axis players would win with those bids.

Warman,
Do you have an avg for avg winning bid for Axis?
Meaning what is the avg bid for all the games where the Axis won?  I’m guessing it has to be a lot higher than the 17.x.  I’m focusing on Gold (2nd ed).

here is the win % for everyone in gold (2nd ed) I dont play 2nd ed much myself  but  go to this link and you can see for  yourself what everyones win % is  for both sides
http://www.axisandalliesworldclub.com/indtables.asp?Ruleset=5

Thanks.
I was also looking for what the “winning bids” would look like for Axis players.  Example, if the avg big is 17, BUT the Allies always win, that would suggest a low bid club wide to me.

I was however able to click on the players and see Avg bid given/taken, and just looking at the top 5, the avg taken was about 18-19.  Slightly higher but not much.

[DarthMaximus]

Agent, do you still Advocate the UK 1 bom buy?

I tend to fall into the lazy mode of just going AC + trn.

But a bom buy on UK 1 (+ save cash) and a bom buy plus inf on US 1 should certainly deter Japan from getting an itchy tech trigger finger.

US can easily go 6 inf, 1 bom and not lose a beat in getting to Afr/Eu.  If the trade off is lower bids by the Axis I’d certainly take it as an Allied player.  They can probably even get away with a bom in rd 2 as well.

[warman1999]

@DarthMaximus:

Agent, do you still Advocate the UK 1 bom buy?

I tend to fall into the lazy mode of just going AC + trn.

But a bom buy on UK 1 (+ save cash) and a bom buy plus inf on US 1 should certainly deter Japan from getting an itchy tech trigger finger.

the problem with going bomber with britt and usa on round 1 helps kep them out of africa
what this does it  enables the axis to grow big and keep britt down to just 5-6 men for each round if they cannot kick axis out of africa real soon. Â

normaly in the games that I play I try to hold the major part of africa for the first 5 rounds this will enable germ to collect around 30 IPC and jap around 45 IPC, that is about 50% of the total IPC’s on the board.

altho I normaly play most of my  games W/O tec  I can see how the ones that use tec  as a workable strat,  japs never buids a factory on the mainland and germ plays it safe with all of it’s battles so they stay strong while jap helps  cover africa for germ along with pushing russ back in asia.

normaly by round 5 japs can afford to roll 6 dice a turn for tec while at most usa can afford to roll 3 and keep men goig to help in africa or to russ, and with britt collecting around 17-22 they cannot afford to roll many tec either exp. when they are getting bombed 2 times a round from germ and jap

I also saw that most here felt that the 2hit BB was a allied adv nope that is a axis adv exp when japs brings their fleet over to the atl, and in the med with the germ BB because  this lets germ get 2-3 loads of men to africa. normaly in a 1 hit game the germ BB is dead after round 2 at the latest (and some 2hit games also but at a cost to the britt air) Â

[DarthMaximus]

But if the Axis are over committing to Afr, then Russia is the victor.  They can be quite a force and with a tactical retreat in the East, they can push back hard against Japan by rd 4.

Regardless of what the UK buys on rd 1, they can still land 4inf, 1 arm in Afr in rd 3, as can the US.

I don’t see how the Germans can hold Afr, without sacrificing too much in Europe.  Esp early on.

If you go 18 bid, with PAfr and don’t place any inf in Europe, you better expect a Russia strike on EE on R2.

You aslo have to worry about a KwangBang if nothing is placed in Man.

If you go PE, then you’re losing Afr early.

The purchase of a US bom will not slow them down.  I’ll often go 2 trns, 2 inf, 1 ftr on US 1, BUT 1 bom 1 trn, 4 inf isn’t much different, nor is 1 bom 6 inf.

UK earning 18-22 can still fill up 3-4 trns, that is still plenty to help defend Kar, esp if Germany continues to send troops to Afr.

You can then go through the Cauc to Per to reclaim Afr if you want.  And in this case you can reinforce Kar and Mos if need be.

This also allows Russia to push back hard against Japan.

Also with 2-hit, I forget does the BB “heal itself” each turn?
Regardless, I’ll trade air to kill the Ger trn, which is all you need to do.

2 ftrs, 1 bom vs. 1 trn, 2-hit bb.  I get two hts, sink your trn and you kill a ftr.  Then I retreat.

I’m not sure Japan can really afford to send many troops to Afr, unless you’re going for an M84 or something.  If you send those troops too early then that frees up Russia to start some trouble.

[DarthMaximus]

Thanks for the response SUD.

I agree, Germany can be very effective by being defensive early.
I’m also not a 3rd ed basher.  I like the change in Can, and submerging subs, but I hate 2 hit BB.

Still not enough though with only ~18 bid.

The Ger tran will be killed on UK 2 if it is still in the Med, and Afr will be reclaimed with one landing when the Allies land in rd 3.

With minimal threat from Ger early, then Russia has lots of options, they don’t have to be a paper tiger.

Trading Ukr (3 ipc) for 3 ter in Afr is a wash, now throw in trading EE, (again need 3 more ipc in afr).  It turns out to be a wash and all you did was weaken yourself in Europe, and allow Russia to be that much stronger.

You end up spending 12 IPC (4 inf), for what?  Egy, Ken, IEA, Uosa, and Syr are 7 IPC.  Two turns up 14 IPC.  Okay maybe a little ahead but it cost you possible trading of Ukr and now forced to trade EE.

I think it is a sound strat, it is EXACTLY what I do when playing as the Axis, with some slight variations including not giving up EE,  BUT I think you need minimum 21.Â

[DarthMaximus]

Some redundancy in there I see in some of the quotes.  :-D

Agent elaborated on some things I didn’t have time to bring up.

Consider an Afr bid with 1-2 inf to Asia to prevent KwangBang.

On R1, your looking at attacks on:
1 - baltic
2 - w sp sz
3 - ukr

results
1 - sub submerges
2 - sub chased off
3 - Russia takes with 4 inf, 3 arm (but can always retreat if rd 1 went bad, or can just strafe)
The pt is Russia has the initiative there and can call the shots.  Whether they attack with 6-2, 7-2, 8-2, or 8-3.

That leaves G1
1 - uk sz
2 - e can sz
3 - w med bb
4 - sub and egy (or syr)
5 - ukr???

With the loss of the ftr on ukr and two 2-hit UK bb’s the Germans will lose another ftr somewhere (maybe 2 if a Allied trn hits somewhere).

5 - Germany probably won’t hit Ukr, esp if you plan on reinforcing Egy with 2 inf.
Russia can try and entice the Germans to hit Ukr with her 3 tanks sitting there, but that means a retreat to EE and inturn leaves the Germans open to a return strafe.
BUT if German does this that means UK can counter Egy easily (since ger couldn’t afford to send the extra 2 inf AND still counter/strafe ukr).

OR instead Russia can afford an inf or 2 to Per on R1 (no bid to Europe), then UK retreats to Per with 3 inf.  (2-3 ftrs to Cauc or ftr to Yak).

Germany is already looking at a pretty significant Allied force of 5 inf + possible planes in Per/Cauc.

OR the Asia play Agent was talking about.

I do agree with Agent here, that I think you guys are assume the Allies just sit around and don’t do much.  They can really afford to attack at will b/c you can always retreat.  But if you only sit around to defend you are at the mercy of the attacker, not a good place to be.

Here’s a couple sample US buys I do (about 90% of the time)

1 - 3 trn, 4 inf
2 - 2 trn, 2 inf, 1 ftr

But

1 bom, 1 trn, 4 inf isn’t much different

You can still get 4 inf in play on rd 2 + planes and you can still get 6+ inf (or 4 inf, 1 arm) in play on rd 3 if you just buy 1 trn 2 inf on rd 2.  Now if you go 1 trn, 8 inf rd 2 you can still set up shuck-schuck without losing a beat and you are still getting 4 inf, 1 arm to Afr, couple that with 4 inf, 1 arm from UK and Germany will not be holding Afr for very long.  Not with 5 inf (2 rus) mixed into it in Per.  And if UK has 2 boms (bought one rd 1), they have a pretty good reach to cause some real havoc in rds 2 and 3.

[DarthMaximus]

Oh yeah, all that being said, I’ve never actually employed either of these recently (early bom buys), but I’d certainly like to.

I usually play no-tech or an understanding of no-tech, so that worry is removed, but I’m considering trying out some early bom buys, to see if I can really put it into action.

[DarthMaximus]

That’s a great point about the dice roller.

The CD is the sole reason I’m deathly afraid of doing SBR’s.
The CD is absoultely unbelievable in rolling 1’s on SBR’s (or on aa fire in general).  And if you happen to fly over an aa-gun on route to an attack the CD hits like 50% of the time.  It really does roll 1’s at will sometimes.

And if you attack a place with an aa gun look out, cause those guys are great shots.  :-)

I’ve finally warmed back up to SBR’s, but I still won’t on the CD.

The CD is also very good in the tech department.

I still do love inf b/c of the CD.
Man, sometimes those guys really got into grooves, they really seem to perform well, whether it was off or def.

[DarthMaximus]

I agree, 1 extra inf here or there doesn’t matter, that can be made up in any trading scenerio, or an extra hit here an there.

Likewise, I don’t the the 3rd edition rules do much to shift bid amounts, or should do much to shift your play.

You’re example about UK 1 is spot on.  I’ve played plenty of 3rd ed games and you can go 3 trns on UK 1, this certainly doesn’t help the Axis.

I like the Canada change, but you can easily work around it.

I see why LL would change bid amounts, b/c it is all about numbers, the battles are decided thus you can get very formulaic and say, well I bought 10 inf now and they reach the front next turn giving me enough to win the battle regardless of what I do elsewhere.  Very predictable.

But 2nd ed vs. 3rd, I don’t see much of a change.

I think an Aggressive Allied player will always win regardless of Ruleset (2nd or 3rd) and regardless of bid amount.  There is an inherent adv to being the attacker, b/c you can always retreat.  The defender has no such luck.

I also think Germany must be defensive in Europe regardless of Ruleset (2nd or 3rd).  They simply don’t have the numbers to do damage early and must preserve their armor and air for when Japan really gets rolling.

Which brings us to Afr,

Personally I’ve always thought of Afr as overrated.  You should take what you can for as little as you can, then as the Allies land, you fall back, (maybe you get a Jap landing to help, maybe not), then shift your early winfall from rds 1-4 into postion in Europe as Japan Apporaches Moscow.

Every game is different though and if you can hold some of Afr for more, then great!  Send another inf or 2, then great! But not at the expense of Europe.

That being said, my generic Allied strat has always been and will always be this:
1 - kill German ships
2 - reclaim Afr
3 - box Germany in in Europe

So, I will kill the German Med fleet in rd 1 or 2 regardless of cost to the Allies.  If that means 2-3 planes must die, so be it.
I will land in Afr in rd 2 or 3, then I will work through the CAUC from then on.  You can get to Egy, almost as quickly by going UK to Kar to Cauc to Per.

I do not like attacks on WE by the Allies, and perfer to go to Fin or Kar directly.  This gives the Allies the 1-2-3 on EE and UK/US the ability to reinforce Mos and Kar, as well as send inf or arm to Per (via cauc), to cut off the Germans.

If I can defeat Axis giving up 21-22 (not PE) 2nd ed, then I can certainly defeat Axis giving up 17-18 3rd ed.

I can see why the the bid would be about 21 though, as you start to approach people just playing PE, but that would be my bid every game and I don’t know how people in the club wouldn’t start off at that.  I’ll bid 21, if I lose the bid, hey I’ll happily give up 20, and if I win the bid, I got 7 inf to place.
Thus I would expect, the avg bid to be about 20.5 not 17-18.

Even looking at the 2nd Ed avg bid, posted in the link by warman the 2nd ed avg was right around 3rd.  So the ruleset doesn’t mean lower bid for 3rd ed CD.

I think just like 2nd ed players can get stuck in looking at things a certain way, I think that can easily happen in the CD club.

If the goto Afr, reinforce Afr, (then possible Tech with Japan) strat works, then it works, but are the players really trying to find a way to beat this or are they just all content with taking their own shot at winning that way?
Sort of going along with the status quo?

[OpTorch]

Great post  :-D

Cant wait for this soap to continue, but first I have to get some sleep.

A gn to all of you!

[Bashir]

grabs some popcorn and settles down on a comfortable chair. Let the catfight continue :D

[DarthMaximus]

And Like sands through the hour glass these are the Days of our Axis and Allies Lives…

:-D

As much as I like reading the back and forth, it really is entertaining  :-) , my Mod-ness must try and prevent it, or at least quell it to friendly banter back and forth.

Lets remember to not get too negative here.

[DarthMaximus]

On Topic,

You make some good points SUD.
It is my perspective that the Allies should almost always win regardless of bid.
This goes back to when my brother and I use to fight just to be the Axis b/c of the challange (pre bid days).
So my general default view is the Allies should always win, so being a non club player (not having to worry about rankings and such), I’m more willing to debate giving a higher bid to provide the Allies with a challange.  BUT, I’d also be more willing to take less as the Axis, to keep the challange of being the Axis.  Also I have the freedom to put conditions on the bid in either case.

However I can see how in Club play, you can’t, thus it may require different bidding styles, which would lead to a slightly lower amount then what I would expect if I’m looking at a lone game or two here.

Example, I can say, I’ll beat a 23 bid that isn’t PE, BUT in Club play, I’d never blindly give an opponent 23.  Why?  For fear he played PE.

I’d like my odds better at say 20 with the Axis, then giving up 23 where my opponent my play PE.  I’ve often said, my style of play would change slightly if I were to play in a club.  Just like it changes when I play ADS or LL or 2nd or 3rd.

So, yeah this type of phenomenon could lead to a lower bid.

I think the big difference from my point of view, is I’m looking at what I would play at and can take each individual game separately (not playing in a club), but the Clubs have no such luck, it can’t distiguish game from game, it simply takes the Avg bid (of whatever ruleset) and shows it to you.

I can already tell you that, while I’d be willing to give players here 22, 23 to test something, I’d never do that in a Club.  So if my club bidding would be slightly lower, so would other players, thus you get the 18-19 bid avg.

Also, you are right that 1-2 inf long term don’t make a difference.  The best Example of this would be say a rd 2, rd 3 SBR on Mos by Ger.  Say Ger hits a 5 IPC shot and a 4.  That right there is equivalent to 3 inf, or a Jap SBR.  And the more obvious, extra hit on a trading situtation when it is 2 inf, 2 ftrs vs. 1 lone inf.

[OpTorch]

handing the mic back to SUD  :mrgreen:

[Bashir]

Let the battle continue! :P  :evil:

[Avin]

By the way, for those mentioning club play, I started playing at DAAK close to a year ago as part of my first forays into playing A&A online, and I regularly bid 22 IPCs. I find that I very frequently will either get Axis at that bid amount, or my opponent will have bid the same amount thus making us tie and it will randomly choose. The only times I get underbid is when I am playing someone who is obviously a newbie to online play. So at least at DAAK a 22+ bid seems to be the norm. (Note: I also only play LowLuck there, so that obviously affects it somewhat).

[OpTorch]

LL surely affects the average bid (vs ADS). In ADS (@DAAK) the bids are more spread (20-24), while the distribution of the bids in AAMC is a bit less. More players there will bid 23 ipcs. There are a few players who will bid 24(+), but that is (still) the exception.

[Bashir]

Where are our 2 contestants?

[OpTorch]

Maybe we should take over.

[warman1999]

you are more than welcome to come over and try all you want to