Moses’ Masterpiece #7: Handling the Worst Case Scenario for Germany
Dedicated to Micah Burress
Russia Unrestricted represents a hard case scenario for Germany. Assuming that the Russian is playing nearly flawless with a huge amount of luck, we can expect a severely handicapped Germany for the rest of the game. The two foremost handicaps are the complete loss of Germany’s North Atlantic Fleet and of Ukraine. Also, Karelia should be a fortress, Ukraine a death trap, and the Soviet Navy should rendezvous with the British in the English Channel. What is the hard luck German supposed to do?
Note:
I have received several comments if Russia should attack Norway or Eastern Europe on T1 instead of Ukraine. First the conquest of Norway should wait until T2. Norway is basically a stranded island and sitting ducking to the Russian army. Micah Burress comments that the ARM used in the invasion is safe from a possible German counterattack at Ukraine. However, I feel this is untrue since the German Luftwaffe is used to attack the British Navy, leaving only German panzers to the dirty work. Of course by doing so, this overextends the German Army, leaving the German panzers vulnerable to attack. Eastern Europe? The question is, with what? The most I can through at Eastern Europe is 3 ARM, 3 inf (unless you want to count in two fighters, which should be used to defeat Germany’s Navy). On Germany’s T1, Germany can close the Eastern Europe pocket from both Germany and Ukraine. Three ARM is wasted and so is Russia’s hope of winning the war. Plus the extra ARM in Eastern Europe is always a determining factor.
Rules Designed for Regular A&A with submerging
Germany (32 IPCs)
Purchase: 9 inf, 1 ARM or 10 inf
Notes: In order for Germany’s own survivability in the later actions of the game it must first be strictly conservative with its purchases. Choose 9 inf, 1 ARM (preferably each turn if able) if you expect Germany to adopt a attack-and-retreat policy. Choose 10 inf (with 2 IPCs remaining) if you rather turtle with Germany, protecting you existing territories, until Japan arrives knocking on the Russian backdoor.
Combat Move:
2 ftr (Western Europe, Norway) to attack Trans in East Canada SZ.
79% chance that German ftr survives
1 ftr (Germany) and 1 sub (Western Europe) to attack UK BB in Gibraltar SZ
80% chance that at least German ftr survives
1 Bomber (Germany) to attack UK Sub in Syria-Iraq SZ
67% chance that Sub is sunk
1 Inf, 1 ARM (Libya and Trans), 1 ftr (Eastern Europe) to attack Egypt
Notes: Be sure to blitz through French Equatorial Africa to Egypt
73% chance that at least German ARM survives
1 inf from Algeria to take over French West Africa
Notes: What happens is the German sub survives the attack from Russia T1? By the numbers you can try attacking British SZ with 2 ftrs (Norway, Eastern Europe) and 1 bomber (Germany) vs. 2 Transports, 1 sub, and 1 Battleship. Results show that 60% of the time, Germany will win with 1 ftr and bomber remaining. By doing so, you have to invade Egypt using Battleship and Trans w/ 2 inf from Southern Europe to Egypt SZ. Unload 2 inf to Egypt to participate in that invasion.
Non-Combat Move:
Land 3 ftrs (1 Norway, Germany, 1 Eastern Europe) to Western Europe
Land 1 ftr from Egypt to Libya
Land 1 bomber (Egypt SZ) to Southern Europe
2 ARM from Western Europe to Southern Europe
1 ARM, 3 inf from Eastern Europe to Germany
Unload 2 inf from Southern Europe SZ to Libya
Placement:
8 inf to Germany
2 inf to Southern Europe
or
7 inf, 1 ARM to Germany
2 inf to Southern Europe
Income: 33 IPCs
Geography:
2 inf, 3 ftrs in Western Europe
15 inf, 3 ARM in Germany or 14 inf, 4 ARM in Germany
2 inf, 3 ARM, 1 bomber in Southern Europe
Notes: As you can see, Germany is in total retreat from the Eastern Front. I’m hoping that Russia will take Eastern Europe on T2. The reason being that I can unleash the full furry of the German Army (up to 17 inf, 6 ARM) and Luftwaffe (3 ftrs., 1 bomber) against any Russian Army. This force is powerful enough to take on 18 inf, 3 ARM, and 2 ftrs. By all means I have tried to take Egypt T1 to gain IPC value and insure that the remaining inf does not reach India. However, my opening T1 leaves the British and Russian fleet in the British SZ still afloat. These vessels will come to haunt Germany at Western Europe, however by attacking the British SZ I would have a 50% chance of losing everything. These planes are desperately needed for Germany in later operations like home defense and counterattacks. What else can Germany do T1 with Russia unrestricted.
