@mantlefan:

Thanks for trying to put forth an analysis (although it is still to general to be of real value; I’m not trying to slight you, that’s just how it is; we can’t examine alternatives to moves in important situations unless we have the whole picture),

Am I reading this right? You are now saying that what you’ve been asking for is actually impossible? That you’re demanding proof and yet not going to actually accept what you’re asking for? Or are you just asking for an unnecessary level of detail?

I’m saying, in my outline, that the US is parked in the Carolines by US 3.  They have done this with a fleet that Japan is not capable of dislodging if Japan has followed any of their relatively common openings. While it is true that other stuff is happening on the board, Japan’s game is being won or lost right here. They can coast a bit on the mainland once they have lost the seas, but their time is limited. They certainly can’t win on the Pacific map, because they need Sydney or Honolulu and they don’t have naval superiority.

Japan in the first three turns has done typical stuff. They advance in China, lose Yunnan on China 1, retake and hold it on J 2, and generally crawl forward. They buy transports on the first turn and generally launch on the Philippines/DEI on J 2. Early on in our games, J 2 was a positioning turn to maintain the Japanese peace NO for another round, but it’s too slow when the US hits the Carolines in round 3. Japan never even got out of the gate when they didn’t start grabbing the DEI until the US was already at the Carolines.

@mantlefan:

That puts the burden of proof on her. (I’m not sure if you get into logic at all but this site is helpful if you wnat  to have meaningful discussions/debates rather than Jerry Springer)

I know some logic, though I’m no expert. I know enough to know that you’re using this wrong. You can argue that Jen’s specific points require burden of proof, and in the minutiae of her specific solutions you have a point, but in the big picture the extraordinary claim (the game is balanced) is yours.

It is much more likely that a game this complex is still unbalanced. Step one is deciding whether or not the game is balanced. Step two is moving on to proving whether a specific solution is needed and functional. Some people are working on step two, and for any specific solution the burden of proof is on them.

You’re arguing something different: that the game should be assumed to be balanced in Step one. You need proof for that.

@mantlefan:

Allegedly there is some new discovery that proves that USA full pac breaks the game. Why not share the “discovery?” Was it made during games skewed by tech or house rules? Was it skewed by uneven dice? Was it skewed by uneven player skill? Was it made up out of thin air to push a rule change that forces USA to spend IPC in both theatres? IL gets on me for asking questions; well, I have one more: Why are none of these questions being answered?

They are being answered. You just don’t like the answers that you’re getting because you think they’re too vague. The discovery is that the US can go 100% in the Pacific and still get to Europe in time.

Or, if you like, I am making a lesser version of the claim, which is that the US strategy outlined above (first turn build specified, and then just outspend Japan every turn after that) will have Japan on the brink fairly quickly.

@mantlefan:

Jen made a claim that the axis essentially can’t win when USA goes full pac (or at least not win often enough to call the game balanced). How can we test if axis CAN win with this allied strategy in place if we are not clear on what the strat is?

That is the strategy. It’s no one set series of builds, and even if it was that would be more tactics than strategy. The US spends 100% in the Pacific until it is clear that they have broken Japan’s fleet, and until ANZAC and India are safe and capable of reclaiming the DEI, etc. At that point on they start moving on Europe. At least, that’s Jen’s claim. I haven’t tried it myself, but then I haven’t had any trouble bottling up Japan quickly with a lower level of spending. Japan’s income has spiked for, generally, about two turns in our games. That’s it. They lose their economy before they really have a chance to gain anything from it, and even at their peak they’re not making what they’d need to make to achieve parity.

@mantlefan:

With little more information from jen other than the USA goes full pac rds 6-8, does this mean that if I buy 2 US battleships every turn I will win as the USA? Why not? So far according to the information she has given that follows the strat.

I think that Jen, questioneer, and the rest of us are assuming that you aren’t being deliberately obtuse with your gameplay. No, “full 100% Pacific” does not mean you can buy a bunch of transports and sail them out en masse to get sunk by the closest sub. Wage war just as you usually would, but with the entire weight of the US focused on breaking the Japanese fleet and bottling them up on their home island. Once you’ve destroyed their navy, ANZAC and India can clean up the DEI and such.

The whole point is that it doesn’t really matter what Japan does, because they don’t make enough money to stop you. I think you are underestimating how helpless Japan ends up being when the US neglects the Atlantic and falls on them with overwhelming force. You’re looking for details, when the counterargument is that the details are irrelevant.

@mantlefan:

The point is that plenty of people have won and are winning with axis. Just look back in this thread alone.

I have looked. If you’d like to point out a specific example you have in mind, I can show you where I think the game was decided on either (a) fluke dice, or (b) Allied mistake, or ©, you’ll show me an Axis strategy that might really work.

Unfortunately, to your point, there is a large category (d), which are games too vague to really know what happened, but I’ll do the best I can.

@mantlefan:

If you have a strat that is different from hers but also is an auto-win for the allies please post a report of it in action so we can see how it worked as well and see if there’s anything the axis could have done. If the axis had no better options responding to and anticipatiing each allied move then maybe jen is rightand there does exist an unstoppable strategy.

Basically same as above. The strategy has been described at a general level. Have you even tried it?

I can attempt to post a full Pacific battle report from what I remember from my last game, but it will have to wait a week until I get back home. I’m stuck with generic debating until then.

I can’t believe I’m going to draw myself into this debate, but…here goes.

I come at it from the opposite perspective, mantlefan. I’ve been looking for quite awhile, and I have not seen a single Axis strategy posted either here or on Larry Harris’ forums that leads to a solid chance of an Axis victory. Even on the few play-by-forum games I’ve skimmed, Axis wins are usually either (a) fluke dice, or (b) bad Allied decisions. Die rolls are part of the game, but if you require them to have a chance at victory I wouldn’t call that game balance.

I can say from our own games that Russia has never fallen. Ever. It’s been an unbroken string of Allied wins. Even with Germany making ~60 and Russia making 25-30, Moscow has held for long enough. We haven’t even tried Sea Lion first and given Russia the extra buildup time…our games have all been variants of Barbarossa. The Axis have attacked G2 (once), G3, G4, and even G5, and still Moscow has never fallen.  We’ve had tank/mech builds, ICs in Romania, no ICs in Romania, air force with artillery/infantry, Leningrad first, Stalingrad first, ignoring both and heading for Moscow. All no go. To your point: we don’t routinely see Russia in Norway or even Finland, but it hasn’t ever mattered.

The worst off Russia has ever been was last game, when my regular opponent decided to smash through Turkey to get to the Middle-East/Caucasus and then come up from the south in addition to coming from the west. That was pretty close, and the UK actually had to send some units up from India to reinforce. Of course, by then, Germany had already lost Western Europe, Italy wasn’t anywhere near Cairo anymore, Russia WAS in Norway, and most of the true neutrals were Allied territories thanks to the invasion of Turkey. Taking Moscow would have prolonged the game, but that’s about it. Still, it was a close (if ultimately meaningless) fight.  :-D

Now, the US has pretty consistently been spending something in the Atlantic in all of those scenarios (except on US 1). Even without 100% Pacific spending, though, Japan has still had major problems. I don’t know how much detail you are looking for in outlining strategies, and I don’t really understand why you need specifics for the US spending 100% in the Pacific (build a giant fleet, sink the Japanese fleet, throw some transports in to retake islands). However, I can outline what I do do. It’s not 100% Pacific spending, but it’s been working just fine…

When I play Allies, first turn US is two carriers and a battleship for the Pacific. This immediately brings the US up to near-parity with the starting Japanese fleet. Fleet moves from Hawaii back to the Western US, stuff on the Philippines starts heading back too. Planes from Honolulu and the continental US land on the new carriers. After US 1, you basically only have to slightly exceed Japanese naval builds, though I do often spend more than that depending on the European situation. ANZAC and the UK can handle the rest.

US 2 everything sails towards Hawaii, including the stuff from the Philippines (via the Solomons) if it doesn’t get sunk. US 2 buys depend a bit on what Japan does…a few destroyers/subs or maybe strategic bombers depending on where their fleet is. The Atlantic gets destroyers, transports, and maybe a land unit (exact mix depends on which naval forces are still afloat in that theater). I spend about 60/40 Atlantic/Pacific on US 2, with the goal of landing 4 transports on the European half of the map on US 4.

US 3 Japan generally loses the Carolines…committing to its defense really hampers their ability to escort transports and keep pressure on everywhere else. Even if Japan parks their whole fleet in the Carolines and I don’t think the US can win the fight, it’s often worth attacking anyway. It opens up a lot of opportunity for ANZAC and the UK if the Japanese fleet is trivialized, and the US can rebuild their lost fleet a lot faster at this stage of the game. I only stay away from the Carolines if Japan has been spending significantly on naval units to reinforce it, or if they’ve tried something unusual like going for Alaska. In the Atlantic it’s time to go grab the free infantry on Brazil. US 3 buys are generally split about 50/50 between a Pacific fleet and an Atlantic mix of air, sea, and land + transports.

Once the Carolines are gone, Japan is in trouble. Going to India in force means not defending most of the Pacific for 3 rounds. Japan loses the Philippines, followed by their DEI NO. Australia is easier for Japan to take if you do it quickly, but harder to hold and there’s not as much strategic advantage to owning it once you’re there.  Japan crumbles incredibly quickly once they hit the tipping point and can’t hold the DEI. It’s usually only 2-3 rounds after that before they can’t sustain an offense, and maybe another couple after that until they are trivialized.

On US 4+, if Japan is still floating a navy, I generally buy a new loaded carrier or replacement airplanes for empty carriers, depending. Throw in 1-2 subs or destroyers as cheap support, and that leaves somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of your income for the Atlantic depending on NOs. I don’t generally have many active US transports in the Pacific…I leave that to ANZAC and the UK, as they need the income more. If Japan has lost their navy and can’t or isn’t rebuilding, I might throw loaded transports out there instead of the cheap naval units.

Turn 4 is when the US starts taking targets of opportunity if Japan is out of position. If the Japanese fleet is sitting on the Philippines or some other standoff location, that’s also fine. The US still has more income at this point as well as two additional allies running around the Pacific. Just keep building up until you can smash their fleet…the more they spend on offense in Asia, the quicker they fall behind at sea and get crushed.

Now, how can Japan match the US naval builds and still post some kind of credible threat on land? They have to be spending about 40 just to keep up at sea, and that doesn’t even include ANZAC’s purchases. They need another 20+ to keep some kind of offense going vs. China and India. How are they making 65-70IPC (or, I suppose, eliminating a mainland opponent) by J 3?  We can’t find a way for Japan to get it all together fast enough without either (a) bringing the US into the war on J 1, or (b) buying a bunch of carriers to get their air force out to sea. Either of those strategies creates a bunch of other problems. Getting the US into the war early lets them stick a giant fleet in the Pacific (or even SZ 6) very quickly while still landing in the Atlantic by US 4 or 5.  Buying carriers and moving the Japanese air force out to sea seems to work better, but it slows them down in Asia and time isn’t on their side with a lower income. You’re counting on Germany to win in that case, and as I mentioned Moscow has always held long enough for the UK and the US to be landing in Europe in force.

If there is indeed a sound Axis strategy, I’d love to hear it. It’s my turn to play Axis next and I’m sick of seeing them lose  :-)  I’m almost desperate enough to try Sea Lion, though if G3 Sea Lion is the only viable German opening I’d still argue that this version of Alpha has problems (and I’m not at all sure that G3 Sea Lion has a bright future).

Incidentally, I can’t believe some people this thread wanted to make China more powerful. CHINA. Japan faces four opponents, and even the least powerful of them is supposed to put up some kind of fight? Where is Japan supposed to make progress if every one of those four opponents is a legitimate source of resistance? That’s like saying France should be able to stick around until G3-G4. The Axis start with fewer units on the board AND less income. They need to make progress rapidly somewhere to stand any chance at all.