FYI there is a similar thread on the Boardgamegeek forum:
https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/3480001/british-strategy-for-full-campaign
I’ll cross-post here what I posted there, because I am also struggling with UK strategy for the first half of the full game:
I’ve slowly come to realize just how incredibly weak the UK situation is at the start of the Rommel’s Last Push scenario.
My huge caveat is that I’ve only played solo (sadly), but I’ve managed to see the Axis player take Cairo quite a few times even against what seems to be competent UK play.
In terms of the ground war, the fundamental problem I’ve seen is that the UK only starts with 12 IPC worth of ground units in the “pipeline” for the first 3 rounds. I typically sequence that as 4 infantry, then tank/AT/infantry, then tank/artillery/infantry. No matter how you spend it that’s only 36 IPC of units arriving for the first 3 turns, and against that the UK will be losing quite a few units during those same turns. That’s also against the Germans/Italians getting over 40 IPC a turn right away (going up when they take Benghazi and Tobruk). The German/Italian ground units also come into play much quicker.
Mersa Brega is annihilated on the first turn and Benghazi is indefensible on Turn 2 unless UK throws everything in there, which then means a likely defeat there will probably also lead to the rapid fall of Tobruk; there just aren’t enough UK land units arriving to replace losses. The German/Italian armor using flank attacks and the superior Axis air force is incredibly strong and can melt even strong-looking UK defenses. Defending Tobruk in strength makes sense to take advantage of the fortifications there, and a few more forces will arrive before it can be realistically attacked, but it’s still very unlikely to hold in my experience. Cairo can come under pressure by Turn 5/6 quite easily. By that point the Axis can be taking in over 50 IPC a turn to the UK only getting a little over 20, making it surprisingly feasible for the Germans and Italians to set up a 1-2 punch, usually the Italians attacking first to weaken and then German mobile/air units coming in from 2 spaces away for the kill.
The UK will collect Malta’s income on the first turn, giving it a big pile of IPC on Round 1 which feels great. The temptation is to spend this on a strong navy or fighters for Malta but I’ve found either way this tends to get countered by Axis air/submarines and also results in too much weakening of the UK ground forces. Those ground units purchased Turn 1 won’t actually land till Turn 4 by which point the situation near Tobruk can be very poor, and Mersa Matruh is a terrible defensive position as it can be attacked from 3 directions.
All in all I think Willem’s advice above is really sound. The only ones I struggle with are his #4 and #6. #4 can be foiled by a single sea unit and is also a little sketchy at times in terms of payoff, though I probably need to experiment more; being able to knock out a needed supply token or German tank could be a big deal. #6 goes back to my problem above: you need Malta to have the income to afford defending it, or else you are spending IPCs that should instead have been spent on ground units you will need 3 rounds from now.
It seems that trying to defend Malta but failing is the quickest way to lose the game as the UK. Not defending Malta leads to a very unfavorable attrition situation on the ground. Successfully Defending Malta even intermittently likely diverts so much IPC to naval/air units that Cairo is under risk. I’ve yet to find a good solution to this dilemma.
I am making no claim that any of this is a result of an imbalanced design, or that it detracts from my enjoyment of the game. Playing solo is especially problematic because you can get stuck in a repetitive rut of strategy. I’m really enjoying the puzzle and look forward to reading people’s perspectives on it.