@Hobbes:

And you should remember one thing: stats have no memory. After the 5th successful bombing the bomber should be shot down according to theory. Probably it won’t. Or the bomber gets shot down on the 1st bombing; and you send a 2nd bomber considering that now the odds are 1/11 that it will be shot down. But it does get shot down by the AA right away.
On the long run (and that can be millions or zillions of tries) the stats work out. On the short one…

yo. the odds for a single event are not influenced by the events that happened before. otherwise you could become a rich man by throwing a fair (!) coin secretly until you get a very very very long row of heads, and then bet a huge amount on tails  :-D

hiya,

i’m not that deep into math but that’s how i would figure it out:

first you must find out the odds. this is very basic and i think you got it yet. a normal aa has a hit probability of 1/6 while a radar aa has a hit probability of 1/3.

to get the average hits you simply add up the odds: in two rounds you score 0,333 hits (standard aa: 1/6 + 1/6) / 0,666 hits (radar: 1/3 + 1/3).

but i would rather suggest that you calculate the probability for a bomber to be hit in x rounds. therefor you multiply the odds that a bomber is not hit ^ number of rounds and substract this from 1:

(example given for standard aa)
prob to be hit in 1 round: 1- 5/6 = 1/6
prob to be hit in any one of  2 rounds: 1 - (5/6 * 5/6) = 11/36 = 30,5%
prob to be hit in any one of 3 rounds: 1 - (5/6 * 5/6 *  5/6) = 671/1296 = 51,8%

and so on.

hope that helps.

p.s.: aas fire once per combat - you got that, didn’t you?

Hiya,

how should one distribute the nations if playing with 3-5 players?

There is one recommendation in the manual; if playing with less than 6, Italy and Germany should always be controlled by the same player (roughly the same as in the previous editions)

What’s up with 3 or 4 player games? How to distribute the nations? Can you recommend the game with less than 5 players?

Greets,
exilautor