@aardvarkpepper

just on your alternatives re Baltic open…

attacking West russia…
on Baltic opener (well the way I do it), Germany can only send Ukraine ground units (3 inf, 1 art, 1 tank), as the 3 inf in belorussia are gone + 2 extra tanks from territories behind
and ussr will have 2 aa guns, 3 tanks, 2 art, 5 inf normally in west russia (sometimes 6 or 4 inf).
I doubt a smart player would send in fighters+bomber to this battle with 7 ground units…high chance of losing 1 air to aa gun, and unlikely to kill anything except inf from west russia in an early retreat.
doing the simulator for 3 tanks, 1 art, 3 inf, 2 fighters vs 3 tanks, 2 art, 5 inf, 2 aa guns gives with a retreat after round 1 gives an average ussr ipc loss of 10 ipc vs a 16 ipc lost for germany. adding/subtracting air units just raises/lowers both sides average loss, but the difference is still in ussr favour by around 6 ipc on average. if you are ussr, you want germany to fight these type of battles

regarding your karelia counter. you are right that germany can put a lot of tanks in karelia in non combat. I think they can get either 5 or 6. but germany can do this anyway with Ukraine opener, as Ukraine has only 1 tank (same as Baltic states).
so you prefer germany can put 5 tanks and 9 inf in karelia, plus have 4 tanks in Poland, small inf in Ukraine and belorussia? rather than 3-5 inf and 5 tanks

ussr cannot counter attack karelia cost effectively when Germany outnumbers ussr infantry. and germany can go hard for west russia in r2 if it wants to (9 inf, 9 tanks, 5 fighters), particularly if ussr didn’t take belorussia in r2 to block the 4 tanks from poland.

it also becomes cost effective to attack w russia and retreat early, as you have 9 inf to absorb hits.

and regarding the use of med fleet to attack caucasus in r1, this allows uk fleet in India to move to make it nearly impossible to take Egypt in r2, and cause headaches for defending Italy…ie send cruiser, aircraft carrier and both fighters to sz 17, and take the transport to sz 17 and dump 2 more inf in egypt…
of course, this is risky for india defence. but you can always send the fleet + troops back to India as you control the canal

not destroying the fighter in egypt also gives uk the option for an even odds battle against japan in sz 37 (1aircraft carrier, 1sub,2cruisers,2 fighters vs 1aircraft carrier,1battleship,2fighters) for a kjf strategy…in fact you could use the result of that battle to decide whether the US goes kjf or kgf.

@aardvarkpepper

regarding the threat, if ussr doesn’t conquer Ukraine, then Germany can send the following to the uk on r2
4 infantry
4 tanks
6 fighters
1 bomber

that is 38 attack power…

uk starts with
2 infantry
1 artillery
1 tank
2 fighters
1 bomber
1 aa gun

that is 18 attack power (+aa)…

on this simulator (https://sinclairtarget.com/axis-and-allies/), this gives 99% chance of victory. so uk has to do something to respond to the german build. so uk fleet re-building in round 1 is pretty much off the table.

so, as a guide we could say that at least 20 defence power needs to be added to uk starting units.

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hence, sea lion does delay a kgf strategy (eg build carrier, destroyer, 3 inf for india).

if you add…
the 2 ussr fighters and the us bomber…
add the tank from Canada (assuming Germany didn’t destroy your transport)…
ussr takes Ukraine in round 1, reduce german force by 1 fighter and 1 bomber

chances of success are still 73%

so a really aggressive build in India is off the table (eg 3 fighters is something you might consider for a kjf strategy) - already the sea lion has an effect on what is built in india

if uk buys 1 fighter and 1 infantry in London, the chances drop to 34%
…
that is a pretty big risk to lose your capital!

also, the expected defender loss is likely to be all/most of the ground troops, and some fighters/bombers…so you probably won’t have a strong force to counter with, and have to rebuild.

if they buy 4 infantry in uk, chances of r2 win drop further to 13%…

interesting…if you keep the above the same but ussr doesn’t capture Ukraine. the odds are still 50% for capturing London
ie the following battle is 50% chance of success
4 infantry, 4 tanks, 6 fighters, 1 bomber vs
6 infantry, 1 artillery, 2 tanks, 4 fighters, 2 bombers, 1aa gun
(the simulator I use doesn’t account for cruiser bombardment, so odds are a little higher, something like 55%, as reducing uk to 5 infantry is a 67% chance of victory)

that is the best defence you can get while putting 3 tanks in India.

so it is very risky to build up india if Germany goes sea lion. if you do 3 infantry, then you can add 3 more infantry to uk, and the odds go down to 12%.

So, it seems like the best thing ussr can do in round 1 to make sea lion have low chance of r2 capture is to take Ukraine, and land its 2 fighters in archangel. if ussr doesn’t do both, then sea lion might make some sense.

I note this strategy doesn’t stop german assault on either Egypt or trans-jordan or caucusus with that battleship (as it is obvious that allies can always stop the battleship + transport from getting to uk).
so you can still use the bomber in r1 to attack Egypt, then land in Italy for uk assault.

given the standard Egypt battle has around 55% chance of german victory, this goes well with sea lion, as it is hard for uk to reinforce when defending sea lion.

I do like the idea of submerging the ussr sub - gives the option to attack Baltic fleet with sub+2 fighters…
but…in order for it to work, you would need to kamikaze the uk planes into Baltic fleet in round 1, and basically try to destroy german fleet in uk+ussr combo…
if uk gets 2 hits, then ussr has 64% chance of destroying the Baltic fleet. if uk gets 3 hits, then ussr is basically certain to clean up.

That battle would be expensive, and pretty much offsets the cost Germany spent on the sea lion strategy (uk probably loses 32 ipc from planes, and ussr maybe loses the sub…so 32-38 ipc lost compared to germanys 35 ipc spent in r1 on transports and aircraft carrier). so not really a point against the sea lion if this is the counter used…just a large ipc trade each way…

also, you would need to buy 7 inf and 1 fighter as uk if you tried this counter, just in case the battle goes badly (eg uk planes only get 1 or 0 hits)…then nothing gets placed in India…

further, the ussr fighters are not being used in r2 to attack eastern Europe.

in more simple terms, if uk build 7 inf and 1 fighter in uk, then Germany odds of winning fall substantially.

the other aspect of sea lion is Germany can potentially have another shot at london in round 3, as there usually isn’t much that can attack the german ships after the first battle in r2.

that means another potential round of “weak” buying in India.

btw regarding the ussr Baltic opener, even though it is 3 battles, two of them have >90% chance of victory (3inf, 1tank, 1fighter vs 3inf) and (8inf, 3tanks, 2artillery vs 3inf 1art 1tank), and you prevent Germany from putting 9 infantry + multiple tanks in karelia, which means you have the option to counter attack in round 2.

It’s also same amount of ground troops are destroyed (2 tanks, 1art, 7 inf), and you only give up 1 tank, 4 inf, 1 art in belorussia + Baltic open compared to taking Ukraine, where you normally give up 3 tanks, 3 inf, 1 art (ie everything you sent in).

i also leave caucusus moderately defended in baltic opener with 4/5 inf and no aa gun as this tends to suck Germany into trying to take caucusus in round 1 with “too many troops” and adjacent tanks, and they can’t hold it against a counter attack (and ussr can’t build more than 8 units, so not being able to deploy doesn’t matter). it can even suck in the battleship as well which protects Africa a little longer.

in my view, Baltic opener is an easier round 2 battle. plus you have the chance of 30 ipc for round 2 purchase.

the main risk for Baltic opener is leaving sea lion option available, or Germany pulling max troops into Ukraine to charge at russia. (something like 7inf/5tanks/4 fighters). but even then you have a half decent chance of attacking this in r2, particularly if you build 2 tanks, 4 inf in r1. depending on West russia battle, could be able to attack with 10 inf, 2 artillery, 5 tanks, 2 fighters. has 40% chance of victory. probably also means that 2 rounds of attacking then retreating will do enough damage to reduce the threat to russia

@aardvarkpepper

I think one combination the “sealion” build for uk works with is for japan taking india in round 2.

for this you use the battleship to take trans-jordan, to block troops from

as UK fortifies London, it leaves India weak. if UK tries to take Borneo in r1, then Japan should buy 1 bomber, 2 transports, send everything it can to Burma (1 tank, 2inf, 1art), and attack china to get the us fighter, and uk fighter if it lands there (1 bomber, 2 fighters, 1inf, 1 art).

if uk is really stupid and doesn’t kill one of the transports japan starts with, then put two more units in burma in r1

leave one lot of US troops untouched. and don’t build industry complex - you can use India’s.

you land all your aircraft in Thailand. or on a aircraft carrier in the adjacent sea zone.

the r2 battle, Japan can attack India with 1 tank, 4inf, 1 art, 5 fighters, 2 bombers. if the r2 attempt doesn’t work, you have 4 more units landing in Burma to finish things off in r3. then you backtrack and clean up whatever mess Russia potentially caused you.

I think the other aspect is that even if the r2 battle for England is low-ish odds (2-1 against), if Germany does win the battle and take england, then the chance of winning the game goes up a lot.
if you take a game with 2 good players, the odds are likely something like 50-50 anyway.

I think it’s a better counter for Russia to not attack Ukraine in r1. and instead attack Baltic states, belorussia, and West Russia - chance of getting 30 ipc and has a better chance of those 3 battles being won cheaply. this increases the risk for Germany that Russia can take Germany in r3 after sending everything into England. this means even if Germany wins and gets all uk income, they risk handing the uk income + german income to russia.
(note, I’ve seen this happen as well when Germany goes super aggressive for russia - building in karelia and caucusus, uk takes Germany after they take russia)