I am a Battleship guy :-P
@ncscswitch:
I am a Battleship guy :-P
There’s a scary thought.
Do you offer the German’s Caviar and Vodka when the walk into Moscow?
I have gravitated toward 5 inf, 1 art, 1 arm for the Russian purchase. And almost always Belo/WR. The problem with the WR/Ukr attack is that the WR attack carries less weight and is likely to result in more Russian losses there and very little armor left after the Ukr counterattack.
OK, My joking aside…
Leaving Germany with 6 FIGs is a problem for Russia.
Losing ARM in order to reduce that number of FIGs is usually a good decision, as it reduces Germany’s G1 attack options (usually reducing the force load for Egypt and increasing the odds on a UK counter) and removing a FIG from the mix when trading Ukriane/Belo/Karelia, which in the LONG RUN is beneficial to Russia.
I’ve rarely seen a very big difference between Egypt with Germany having 6 fighters and a bomber, and Egypt with Germany having 5 fighters and a Bomber. Those Brits are ONLY getting 1 round anyway, so their going to inflict the same amount of damage most of the time regardless of the over kill.
Meanwhile, Russia not losing 3 armor is huge. 15 IPC out of 24 IPC is 63% of their starting income. If you can save that, then you’re all the more stronger defensively then otherwise.
It’s my contention that Russia just cannot afford Ukraine in Russia 1. It’s not like those German units are going to be detrimental since you are effectively doing the same damage to Germany, minus the fighter, as you would with a W. Russia/Ukraine attack (well, you also don’t kill an artillery or armor.) while saving lots of infantry and all your armor. Germany saves 19 IPC. Russia saves 25 IPC (3 tanks, 2 infantry, artillery because you sent that equipment elsewhere.)
@ncscswitch:
OK, My joking aside…
Leaving Germany with 6 FIGs is a problem for Russia.
Losing ARM in order to reduce that number of FIGs is usually a good decision, as it reduces Germany’s G1 attack options (usually reducing the force load for Egypt and increasing the odds on a UK counter) and removing a FIG from the mix when trading Ukriane/Belo/Karelia, which in the LONG RUN is beneficial to Russia.
Switch made a good point favouring the Ukraine attack.
It is not only 1 FIG less, but Germany have to send something in Ukraine, and if German send a FIG there then there are only 4 FIG to attack UK! German may send a Tank, it will be killed on R2.
Moreover why send three tanks in Ukraine? Three tanks are needed if one want to strafe Ukraine, srtipping away inf and retreating.
But to conquer Ukraine 2 tanks and two fig with three inf and 1 art (with Axis bid in Lybia naturally) are sufficient. Ukraine should be conquered with 1 or 2 tank left, and the other 2 tanks attacks West Russia. With a build of 3 tanks and 3 inf I think that this opening is a good start for Russia.
I’m getting more undecided on this issue all the time now…
Likewise, it is a loss of 3 Russian armor, not one in Ukraine. You know Germany’s going to make it her mission to destroy those armor because Germany can afford replacement armor, Russia cannot. At least not as readily.
If I have the chance to reduce Russia’s offensive and defensive punch by 9 and lose some infantry to do it, I’ll do it.
Meanwhile, if Russia hits W. Russia and Belorussia, you’ll get 1 or 2 tanks if you counter attack and you’ll sustain some losses to get it. Russia’s already recovered that with a 3 inf, 3 arm purchase, maybe surpassed it with a 3 inf, arm, fig purchase.
Germany is in some ways more strapped for units than Russia - Germany has to defend against allied landings in WE, SE, Ger and EE, while also sending some units to Africa, - that often doesn’t leave much for the attack on Moscow, and Russia may actually be able to out-produce Germany on the Russian front even with lower income than Germany. Japan can offset that by similarly distracting Russia on the Eastern front.
So I honestly don’t know between the two who can afford to trade units. It depends on the game I guess. If the allies have stayed out of the Med, and the Baltic fleet is still there or the Allied fleet is not in range of it b/c they are landing via Z4 into Arc / Kar, then Germany can more easily afford to trade units with Russia. But if the UK/US are threatening major landings in Europe, you need to hunker down eventually.
Ukraine G1 / R1 happens before the Allied landings become a real possibility though, so that doesn’t help.
Germany’s got a pretty free reign for 3 or 4 turns before they have to worry about landings in E. Europe, W. Europe or S. Europe. (Obviously England could hit W. Europe on UK 1, but what British player is outfitted for that and what German player doesn’t have a few infantry and a couple fighters there to defend it?)
Russia doesn’t have that luxury. From Russia 1, Russia’s got to worry about probes in SFE, Buryatia, Karelia, Archangelsk, W. Russia, Ukraine and Caucasus.
I just think that Germany has to save units for those “rainy days” after round 4 or so. If you only start then, it’s too late.
On the flip side, I’ve taken Moscow on Turn 5 with Germany.
To me, that’s like going for checkmate in three moves. It CAN work, but you have to count on your opponent to make some dumb moves and not see it coming.
If you are playing a skilled opponent, you CANNOT capture Russia in five turns. At least, I don’t think so.
unless the dice gods bless you. =)
Mmm… I have seen several games lost by Axis because after Moscow fall, in the following turn also Germany fall.
Russia is a short term strategy Country in my opinion. 4-5 turns. Russia have to do the greater damage possible to the German army. Greater the losses on the Russian front greaters the problem that German have to face.
UK/US have to come in help before is too late or, otherwise, Russia and her allies are doomed.
Conservative play or aggressive play when Japan arrive to threaten Moscow and Germany advance on the Eastern front Red Army is in a very bad situation.
So why take care of tanks? The best use for them is to destroy German infantry. They went destroyed in the process? What a pity, meanwhile, Germany have to stack Europe, and any less infantry is one less problem for Russia.
BTW, if you send both fighters to Ukraine, how do you take W. Russia? And if you take W. Russia and Ukraine, are not all of your armor now vulnerable?
The idea is:
Ukraine: attack with 3 inf, 1 art, 2 tank, 2 fig
West russia: 9 inf, 1 art, 2 tank
leaving only 3 inf in bielorussia and having buyed 3 inf and 3 tank, I do not think that German may attack West RUssia.
Ukraina is only a trading territory.
The idea is not mine, but of Axis_roll, an I like it very much!
I’d be tempted to blitz W. Russia forgoing a hit on the British navy. If I can knock out the Russian army with moderate losses I can recover before England can press the advantage of the free destroyer in the Med.
I’d be tempted to blitz W. Russia forgoing a hit on the British navy. If I can knock out the Russian army with moderate losses I can recover before England can press the advantage of the free destroyer in the Med.
My initial thought was that the Belo/West Russia R1 attack is MORE suceptible to a German 1 counter in West Russia because Germany would have more/better attacking units left alive in Ukraine instead of Belorussia.
So I looked at the numbers on a dice sim, and when R1 you go with everything you can against West Russia (9 inf, 2 art, 4 tanks), the most likely outcome was 7 inf, 2 art, 4 tanks, happening >= 59% of the time. If on R1 you attack Ukraine, along with West Russia (9 inf, art, 2 tanks) has a most likely outcome of 7 inf, art, 2 tanks, happening >= 45% of the time.
Turning around and attacking West Russia on G1:
When ukraine was not attacked R1:
3 inf, art, 3 tanks, 6 ftrs, bomber on 7 inf, 2 art, 4 tanks > 61% win chance, 4 units left
when belorussia was not attacked R1:
3 inf, tank, 5 ftrs, bomber on 7 inf, art, 2 tanks > 46% win chance, 4 Russian units left
So the odds are slightly BETTER for Germany to attack West Russia G1 if Russia does not hit ukraine R1.
DISCLAIMER:
This was a very rudimentary analysis, the number of units in these battles is small, so there can be a lot of variance, especially with the AA gun firing on defense against a G1 hit (either way).
Also, the odds of R1 “winning” either belorussia (3 inf, 2 ftr on 3 inf) or ukraine (3 inf, art, 2 tank, 2 ftr) are just about equal (3-4% diff), with about the same odds for a withdrawal of your two planes (15-18%)
I made the evaluation basing on my game experience.
Hitting only WR had as answer German counterattack to WR, having 6 inf to cover the attacking panzers (3 inf from Ukraine and 3 inf from Belorussia). After a round of strafing German army may retreat to Belorussia or Ukraine, and then reinforce with inf (from EE and BAL) and fig.
So I have switched my Russia opening to attack two territories: WR for sure and UKR or Belorussia.
Belorussia attack do not hurt Germany as the Ukraine attack.
The way to attack Ukraine may be 3 inf, 1 art, 2 tank 2 fig, which allows for taking Ukraine with 1 or 2 tanks left. The stack in WR is pretty safe, Germany have only 3 inf in Belorussia to cover the attack and even if her strafe WR retreating in Belorussia the army is without covering infantry, because German may send only 2 inf from EE. This without considering that German should re-conquer Ukraine.
The only way for German to hit efficiently WR is having both Belorussia and Ukraine inf.
Spoiling Germany of those inf is a must for Russia IMHO.
The alternative to conquer, Belorussia or Ukraine, is to strafe it, stripping away the inf. Those panzer is going nowhere without infantry covering.
So why I prefer attack Ukraine? Flexibility is the answer.
I attack Ukraine with 3 inf, 1 art, 3 tank, 2 fig, and W with 9 inf, 1 art, 1 tank. Buying is 3 inf and 3 tank or maybe 5 inf 1 art 1 tank.
If my attack in WR is going very well (say 1 or 2 inf loss WR taken with 7 inf, 1 art, 1 tank) I may choose to only strafe Ukraine, depending also on the losses in the first round. So I keep the German with less infantries and preserve my tank force.
If attack in WR is going bad (more than 3 losses so only 6-5 inf left) I definitely go in Ukraine for conquer it. So I destroy more German units, gain 3 more IPC, and are still able to keep German away from Caucasus in the first two rounds, trading Ukraine.
Considering German counter at this point, the best thing for her is trading Ukraine. Moving en masse there without inf and without fig coverage it is not healthy.
Attacking Belorussia there is not such flexibility. You have to go for conquer it. German forces in Ukraine stay intact. If WR attack goes bad German has still the opportunity to strafe Red Army in WR, or moving en masse in Ukraine, or even trying to take Caucasus.
Then, naturally Russia may counter trading Caucasus, but it is better to trading Ukraine then Caucasus IMHO.
