Best way to sneak up on UK

@jsp4563:

I don’t think any decent allied player would allow germany to unite their fleet in sz7.  It’s easy to spot, and easily countered.

OK, I build a German carrier and land one fighter and the bomber at Libya, one fighter at Germany to go on the Baltic carrier, and rest at W. Europe.  I sent the Med fleet west and united with the German sub from the Atlantic at Gibraltar, taking no casaulties (reasonably likely with fighters attacking as well).  Also, I have Anglo-Egypt because of a German opening bid.

Counter that easily.

@jsp4563:

I don’t think any decent allied player would allow germany to unite their fleet in sz7.  It’s easy to spot, and easily countered.

Show me how it’s done.  Start with the simple example I gave.  Germans build 3tra in the Baltic, send 1sub 1tra 1btl 2ftr to Gibraltar.  Germans land 4ftr in WEU, 1ftr 1bmr in LIB.

What is your easy counter to that move to prevent the fleets from uniting?

Thanks in advance.

Well sorry about that then.

it’s coo.  (abbrev. “cool”)

What is your easy counter to that move to prevent the fleets from uniting?

Me (points):  OMG, HEATHER LOCKLEAR!

(CrazyStraw spins around “where?!”)

(sudden crashing noise)

Me:  OOPS, my cat knocked over the board!  OH WELLZ, I guess your German fleets can’t unite, WHAT A SHAME

CrazyStraw:  You don’t have a cat.

–

The closest thing to an “easy” counter that I can think of is US and UK consolidate fleet off UK, and UK builds 3 fighters, followed by US flies its W US and Hawaii fighters to E. Canada and its fighter and bomber to London, while also moving its E. US forces of 2 inf 1 art 1 tank to London.

London has defender 1 AA gun 2 bomber 4 inf 2 art 3 tank 6 fighter.  The Russian sub that joined the UK battleship and transport on Russia 1 moves west of Algeria to block the German Mediterranean fleet on Russia2.  (The Caspian Sub paper does mention that if Russian fighters are in range of London, that possibly 3 transports should not be built.  So I assume that Russia has played a Russian-fighters-at-Caucasus variation.)

The Russian sub does NOT prevent German fleet unification.  What it does is 1) prevent the German Med transport from being used in a G2 attack on London (although the Germans CAN reinforce London if it was taken), and 2) force the Germans to EITHER use a fighter to take out the sub or force submerge, OR forces the Germans to use navy to attack the Russian sub (bad idea, German naval units used to attack will be stranded west of Algeria), OR forces the Germans NOT to unite the fleet.  In the last case, the Germans have attacking force 4 inf 4 tank 6 fighters 1 bomber, which I think is pretty risky for the Germans, although I haven’t actually cracked the numbers recently.

Now, if Germany DOES decide to take one of the options that results in fleet unification, that PROBABLY means that London was not invaded.  There are a few permutations, but the fact is that the Russian sub must be blown up by German navy (preventing a deal of unification), or that the Russian sub must be blown up or forced to submerge by German air (which weakens any German attack on London to the point that it is very risky).

So the German fleet of 5 trns 3 sub 1 destroyer 1 battleship unites off France, with dhit 18 count 11, while the UK has 1 battleship, 2 transports, 5 fighters, and 1 bomber for ohit 23 count 10.  Which is not bad for the Germans, but the US can follow with 2 trns 1 destroyer 3 fighter 1 bomber, which will wipe out the remnants of the German fleet.

The UK/US counters are entirely dependent on the UK and US first turn builds, and first and second turn moves.  UK and US still have the option of using their second turn builds to respond to the German second turn build.

–

But even if that DOES prevent German fleet unification, it forces the Allies into a KGF, and it does NOT kill the Baltic fleet, which means that the later Allied turns are going to have to deal with that considerably sized Baltic fleet, which is by no means simple.

That is - there is a counter to the stop the German fleets from uniting, but I do not believe it is a SIMPLE counter, because the Germans have a lot of counterplay possibilities.

JSP, was that the counter you had in mind?

Sea Zone 12:

Russia: 1 Submarine
England: 1 Battleship, 2 Transports
America: 1 Destroyer, 2 Transports

Germany:  1 Battleship, 1 Transport, 5 Fighters, 1 Bomber (tops)

Would recommend an American AA Gun in Algeria as well, force at least 1 fighter to be subject to AA Fire.  That means Algeria would have:

England: 2 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 1 Armor
America: 2 Infantry, 1 Armor, 1 AA Gun (or 1 Artillery)

Germany survives with 2 fighters, bomber and a battleship, fleet is NOT unified (SZ 5 cannot get to SZ 12 in one round.)  England hits German Battleship with 2 Fighters, 1 Bomber on England’s next turn.

German unification lies below the waves.

@Jennifer:

Germany:  1 Battleship, 1 Transport, 5 Fighters, 1 Bomber (tops)

Nope.

A) You left out the German sub from Z08.  That would survive at Gibraltar.
B) You are likely to have 6ftr available.  It depends on the Russian opening, of course, but Russia attacking BEL/WRU is not an unusual combination.

So that would demolish the Z12 fleet.  It is true that prevents the unification, but no “decent” player would trade all that Allied navy just to kill the German Med fleet (calculated outcome is that no planes die).

This only becomes a reasonable move when there are 4 or fewer German fighters.  That won’t happen much.

With the corrected unit count, this is not a good way to prevent the fleets from uniting.

Peace

Your unit count is inaccurate.

It’s almost a guarentee that German fighter in Ukraine is destroyed before Germany’s turn.

Assuming the Submarine lives at Gibraltar, which I did discount since I’m not used to seeing the BB and Trn enter the engagement as well, that does not change the outcome of the war significantly enough to justify an almost guarenteed loss of Africa.  (Since you are not landing troops in Africa and England is landing on BOTH coasts.)

Meanwhile, England has 2 Transports, Battleship, 5 Fighters, 1 Bomber.

@Jennifer:

Your unit count is inaccurate.

No.  You were wrong twice.  You missed the sub and you assumed a successful attack on Ukraine for “Top” outcome.  Both of those are incorrect.

Even assuming 5ftr for Germany, the most common outcome of Germany attacking the Z12 fleet is Germany loses 1ftr, the second most common outcome is Germany loses 0ftr.

It’s a terrible Allied play.  There is an average 45 IPC benefit to Germany in that attack.  No “decent” player would do that.

Thanks

@CrazyStraw:

Both of those are incorrect.

Arrrgh, never tell a woman she’s wrong.

BTW, when I play Allies, it is almost guaranteed that the Germans WILL have 6 fighters and bomber at the end of the German turn (if the German player plays to conserve airforce), since I almost NEVER attack Ukraine.

It is not really an “assumption” that the sub lives at Gibraltar.  with 1 battleship, 1 sub, 1 transport, and 2 fighters attacking the UK battleship, the odds are excellent that the Germans will not lose anything.  With an African bid of 2 units at Libya, the Germans can send 3 inf 1 tank 2 fighter 1 bomber to Anglo-Egypt, almost certainly taking it and cutting off the UK destroyer.

Of course, if you are not used to Gibraltar, you may not be familiar with the need of the Germans to take Gibraltar with 1 inf.  Otherwise, UK can take a shot at the Med fleet.  If Gibraltar is taken, though, any UK attack gets expensive very quickly.

If the Med Fleet moves west and links with the SZ8 SUB, the SUB is almost certain to live (as much of a certainty as you can get in a game that has dice)

Also, if you DO move west with the Med Fleet, you HAVE to take Gibraltar.  Otherwise, the Brits can counter your fleet on UK1 with 1 DST, 2 FIG, 1 BOM,  Taking Gibraltar reduces any attemtped UK1 counter to 1 DST, 1 BOM (pretty crappy odds for the Limeys)

is it bad if you send the french sub off to kill the transport from Canada? you still take giblatar.

@ncscswitch:

Also, if you DO move west with the Med Fleet, you HAVE to take Gibraltar.

You are dead-on, there.  It is such a standard move with the guys I play with that when we set up the board we no longer chip the 2inf in SEU - we just put two inf pieces there because they get de-chipped instantly.  One of those guys is destined for Gibraltar every game unless something really weird occurs.

Peace

@cyan:

is it bad if you send the french sub off to kill the transport from Canada? you still take giblatar.

Well, it is a suicide mission with a marginal success rate.  Just over 70% success rate to kill the TRN, almost 30% chance to lose the SUB for no gain.  And then the USAF units can kill the SUB on their way to UK in US1 (85% chance of success for 1 FIG, 1 BOM).  The BEST you can hope for is to trade 8 IPC navy Germany for 8 IPC UK, and 30% of the time you lose 8 IPC navy for ZERO Allied units.

Using it to assist with the BB off Gibraltar gives you insurance in case the UK BB gets off a second shot due to poor dice, or if you use FIGs only (sending the Med Fleet east to Egypt) it gives you fodder to preserve the Luftwaffe.  And it is extra fodder to protect your fleet long-term, and extra attack punch AND fodder if you go after the US fleet, keeping your FIGs and BB alive longer…

@cyan:

is it bad if you send the french sub off to kill the transport from Canada? you still take giblatar.

I don’t think it’s such a bad move as Switch does.  He raises some good points about the percentages, but there are a lot of times when your only goal with German boats is to kill UK transports PERIOD.  For instance, if you know the UK won’t go for the block in Z12 (and they likely won’t) then it’s nice to force them to buy back a transport.  If your goal is just to buy time with Germany, there are instances where you’re better off popping Z01.

Doing that changes a couple of things, however:

1. The Allies have 1tra (ECn) less in Z12 if they go for the block.
2. The German united fleet is a little weaker.
3. The Allied player may decide to take 1des 1bmr after your Gibraltar fleet for 1 round to see how it goes.  If the German player misses the first time, suddenly that’s a good move.  Since the UK des is basically toast anyhow, it’s not a bad UK option to see if the dice are kind.

Overall I certainly prefer bringing the sub to Gibraltar, but I don’t think it’s a 100% clear-cut better move.

Peace

i think of trns binging worth more than subs. any way your precentages are a tad bit of. iti 75% to kill that transport. http://frood.net/aacalc/?abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&mustland=0&aInf=&aArt=&aArm=&aFig=&aJFig=&aBom=&aHBom=&aTra=&aLTra=&aCar=&aSub=1&aSSub=&aDes=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=&dArt=&dArm=&dFig=&dJFig=&dBom=&dHBom=&dTra=1&dLTra=&dCar=&dSub=&dSSub=&dDes=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Fig-JFig-Des-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-LTra &ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Bom-HBom-Des-Fig-JFig-Car-dBat-LTra &round=1&territory=&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=Revised&pbem=

Not going to argue a couple of points.  I ran the sim 1000X and it came out 71.something and 28.something, and I rounded off.  If teh sim varies by more than a few percent, then that just means that it is a high variable battle, and that it is even riskier…

First off, the goal was to prevent a link up of the fleet on G2.  Done with that fleet.  End of story.  You have to engage with the Med fleet to win which means they cannot get to SZ 7 to link with the northern fleet.

Secondly, when I run the numbers, it shows almost a guarentee that Germany looses all naval vessels except the Battleship and 1 or 2 fighters.  And that’s assuming, of course, that you staged everything in range of SZ 12, which you may or may not have done. (Duration of the battle, 3 to 4 rounds)
(Submarine, 4 Transports, 1 Destroyer, 1 Battleship vs 5 Fighters, 1 Bomber, 1 Transport, 1 Submarine, 1 Battleship)

Thirdly, in regards to the fighter in the Ukraine, you only have a 1.96% chance of surviving with it.  So yes, I always presume it’s dead. 
(3 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 3 Armor, 2 Fighters vs 3 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 1 Armor, 1 Fighter)

Fourth, if you put your bid in Libya, the best you could have is 8 IPC since that’s usually what I bid, that means you have 2 Infantry, 2 Armor, 1 Fighter, 1 Bomber to attack Egypt because you have no reinforcements comming from Europe.  Odds are extremely good you end that with 2 armor, 1 fighter, 1 bomber.  To which England counter attacks with 3 infantry, 1 fighter, 1 bomber ending with Egypt with 2 Infantry, Algeria with 2 Infantry, 2 Armor and Germany reduced to 1 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 1 Fighter, 1 Bomber in Libya.

So afterwards you have succeeded in taking out part of the British fleet, part of the American fleet and the dreaded Red Oktober, but you lost Africa for a few rounds, Russia’s comming to beat in your front door, and America loosing a destroyer and a pair of transports is hardly cowering in fear of the mighty Kriegsmarine.  However, Germany is cringing because they are out 11 IPC for Africa, they have no Med fleet in range, they have Russia barrelling down on them with England moving in fleet, America moving in fleet and Germany faced with the choice to buy fleet instead of soldiers or exchange fighters for transports.

Any way you slice the cookie, it’s bad for Germany.

Jen: Ah, much better.  But you’re not there yet.  Let’s dig a little more.

First off, the goal was to prevent a link up of the fleet on G2.  Done with that fleet.  End of story.

Nope.  The comment from JSP was "I don’t think any decent allied player would allow germany to unite their fleet in sz7.  It’s easy to spot, and easily countered."  Your counter is a bad counter, and a decent player wouldn’t do it.  Of course you can pay a heavy privce to stop the fleet unification.  You can also do it in Z06.  The point is that all the counters are bad, not “decent”.  Your counter doesn’t do the job well at all.  It’s not easy to counter the unification, and a decent player won’t do it in most circumstances.

More Jen:

when I run the numbers, it shows almost a guarentee that Germany looses all naval vessels except the Battleship and 1 or 2 fighters

Ok, that’s a B+ answer.  You’ll note my earlier response is that the Germans just throw away the Med Fleet (+Z08 Sub) to kill all those Allied boats.  The Germans would never leave the lone battleship alive; they’d take the second hit on the btl before you’d take your first ftr because it would die alone anyway.  So the real situation is all German boats die, and 0ftr or 1ftr die.  Like I wrote.

To really see what the board is going to look like you have to think through the logical steps, not just run the sim.  I’m sure in the actual game you’d make that correct choice.

Jen again:

in regards to the fighter in the Ukraine, you only have a 1.96% chance of surviving with it.  So yes, I always presume it’s dead

Sure, in the games where Ukraine is attacked with full power.  But not only is Ukraine often attacked with less than full power, it is often not attacked at all.  You’re trying to make a blanket statement about circumstances that may not occur.

But it’s largely irrelevant.  The outcome of the Z12 attack with 5ftr instead of 6ftr is not radically different.  It is still a bad attack in the amount of a 45 IPC average net loss for the Allies.

That’s a terrible, terrible price to pay to prevent the German fleet from uniting.

Which is my whole point: the united fleet is a good move.  Even the threat of it is a good move.  It is NOT easy to counter.  That’s why you do it.

But there are at least two other attempts you can make to make to stop the unifaction.  Someone else care to present the scenarios?

Peace

But there are at least two other attempts you can make to make to stop the unifaction.  Someone else care to present the scenarios?

I may have been jumping the gun a bit.

Does anyone still think the Z12 block is a good move if Germany has 5 or more ftrs available?

If not, I think it would be interesting to walk through the two other counters mentioned so far: a Z06 UK blockade, and purchasing 3ftr (or some other offense) from the UK to attack the united fleet to prevent the unification.

But I don’t want to bore folks (more than usual) if we’re past the point where the topic is interesting.

Peace